griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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I thought the NAM looked really good save the last couple of frames where it looked like the northern shortwaves toppling the west coast ridge were starting to exert their influence on the southern wave (it looks fine for the more northwest areas)
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It’s the ewall Franklin gets heavy front end frontogenesis thump look
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Get the northern stream to leave the southern wave alone, move the 50/50 low a little southwest (-NAO would help), and have better pre-storm cold...hang in there, it's early in the El Nino winter
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You got it Niner. Trend loop here on the EPS, including the most recent 06z run. So the 3 key players are the SE Canada trough (50/50 low), the southern stream wave, and the new shortwave dropping down from the northern stream (in S Dakota on the last image of the loop). Over time: 1) the 50/50 low has nudged southwest, 2) the model is seeing increased amplitude with the southern wave, and 3) the new northern stream shortwave is now getting more involved, and earlier. Note the trend of the height rises from Georgia up thru Kentucky. Height rises = warmer, and a more north solution (warmer aloft that is, not really at the surface where the damming high will do its dirty work). So, for a more south solution, we'd want to see the SE Canada trough to nudge more to the southwest, the southern stream wave to not be as amped, and to lessen the early involvement of the northern stream shortwave. The SW VA group would want to see it stay the same as it is now
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I think the cold damming is going to lock in pretty well with this one. Yeah, legit concerns for substantial ice...just a matter of how much sleet vs. frz rain, and where that shakes out
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I think though that we are headed in the direction of more of a Miller B or Miller B Hybrid as HkyWx calls it....where that was straight Miller A...so, I would expect much more mixed precip compared to that one, IMO
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It's a good point Mack and Iceage - yeah, that's why I've said all along that I want the southern wave to be left alone and for it to just track west to east without any northern stream interaction. If northern stream pieces are diving in early, it will want to sling shot the wave a bit northeast or at least raise the heights in the east which means more warming and more precip north - good for VA, bad for us. If it dives in for a late phase that's fine. Not really concerned with what the GFS is doing there. The bigger concern is just the Euro being maybe too far south / too suppressed compared to what really happens at go time. I was thinking earlier how @SnowGoose69 used to say that the Euro has a bias now where it tends to be more suppressed in the mid range compared to other models.
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It reminds me of the SREF...if it ends up being right, it's for the wrong reasons
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UKMet really evacuates the cold air at 850, pushing 0 deg line all the way up into S VA...didn't expect that based on the run at h5
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Yeah precip shield and thicknesses are a bit north this run
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The new UKMet looks fairly similar to its last run...it continues to slide the sfc low out off the GA/SC coast and on out to sea. It has a late phase, but maybe not as aggressive as the last run...but didn't trend north it doesn't look like on the early maps
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I think you mean the snow map. Here it is, but again, I'd be leary that it's showing too much snow on the southern and eastern edges here where there would likely be mixing cutting totals way back
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18z EPS Mean compared to the 12z EPS Mean was a bit more amplified with the wave...a little north with the sfc and 850mb low tracks. It was a little warmer from Bama thru TN again as the low tracks across the gulf coast while maintain the relative cold east of the Apps...so it continues to increase its recognition of the damming high to the north. The closed off 850mb low on the mean tracks from Birmingham, AL to Cape Hatteras. That track is very good for the N NC Mtns into SW VA, but problematic for warm nosing aloft from the upstate into parts of central NC
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Yeah the NAM run looks good all the way to the end at h5...real close to Euro. Here's the composite radar at the end
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The JMA brought the low up into GA, then moved it ENE off the NC coast, so it's warmer and north - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=jma&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018120412&fh=0
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Our low off California - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atlpac-wide&product=wv-mid
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Yep prepare for the worst (or best!) there now and see where it goes
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12z EPS Clown....similar largescale footprint as previous run, but higher totals (more consistency I would assume)
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EPS Mean compare from 06z to 12z....at 500mb it had the same slight changes as the op run (good changes for upstate into central NC). It has the northern stream phasing in late a bit. Sfc low track is similar but a little closer to the coast off the Carolinas. Initially it was a little warmer thru Bama into TN and colder in the Carolinas (more damming), but it was a little warmer in eastern and central NC as the low went off the Carolina coast. This is a textbook look at 500mb for snow in upstate into central NC (and to the NW) when the wave is in central Texas in this kind of setup
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Thank you, yeah burrel mentioned it....the last few runs of the Euro (and EPS) have been increasing the strength of a shortwave that drops into the Great Lakes just ahead of our storm wave....we want that to be fairly strong and drop in so that the heights along the east coast don't have a chance to lift north. I would assume the better shortwave trends thru the Great Lakes is stemming from increased ridging in W Canada, but I haven't looked
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Oh yeah, I think it makes sense to have less confidence with what happens in the northern stream from Canada into the Great Lakes and the Northeast than we do with the southern wave. The damming high is a feather in the cap even if the source region is less than ideal
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IMO, the biggest thing to watch for the upstate to central NC crowd is how firmly the confluence pattern holds and is reinforced over the Northeast prior to the storms arrival. I think we'll pretty much be able to count on the wave trekking west to east and holding its strength
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Boone / Ashe look great right now, certainly better than yesterday. You have plenty of wiggle room with temps up there. Given the strong southern wave moving slowly scenario, this has the potential to be right up there with some of the big ones...but see the 48hr rule in my signature below...models will continue to change
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3-4 inch liquid in W NC into the upstate....El Nino at its best
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Final
