griteater
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It's Miller B hybrid basically...the advantage with this storm is having the damming high out front. We haven't had that in some recent winter storms. So, upstate to Charlotte to Raleigh, you just hope to get smacked with the early heavy overrunning portion of the storm before the warming aloft moves in....and make no mistake about it, it will move in with this setup. Of course, things will change on the models over the next 3 days...that's almost a certainty.
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source for early FV3?
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GFS Total Liquid
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12z GFS
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New UKMet looks a lot like the GFS...though the sfc low isn't as close to the coast along the Carolina coast
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I know the Huffman boys have done some work on this in the past with surface low benchmarks....but I will say that there are various types of storms and various configurations at 850 and 500mb, so you kind of have to put them in storm type groups before establishing some of those benchmarks above the surface.
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Just a note that the ICON takes the sfc temperatures to below freezing in CLT and parts of the upstate as the precip rolls thru (i.e. icy mix instead of rain)
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Some of the runs closed off the 500mb wave nicely and moved it slowly thru the southeast...so in that case yes, you'd see that type of dynamical cooling and lingering of the precip. But that non-withstanding, we can look a little lower at the 850mb low track. For this setup, with a good closed 850mb low like this, for the upstate into Charlotte, we'd want to see that low track say from S MS to coastal SC. That keeps the mid-level warming in check and you'd have good lift and cooling there on the NW side of the 850 low track (Miller A scenario). Looking at the 06z FV3 GFS, it tracks the 850 low roughly from N MS to Cape Hatteras...so, that's too far north to keep it all snow in this region (brings in too much warming aloft). Verbatim, the 06z FV3 GFS does have quite a bit of snow, but you get the picture...it puts us on the edge on that run
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I thought the NAM looked really good save the last couple of frames where it looked like the northern shortwaves toppling the west coast ridge were starting to exert their influence on the southern wave (it looks fine for the more northwest areas)
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It’s the ewall Franklin gets heavy front end frontogenesis thump look
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Get the northern stream to leave the southern wave alone, move the 50/50 low a little southwest (-NAO would help), and have better pre-storm cold...hang in there, it's early in the El Nino winter
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You got it Niner. Trend loop here on the EPS, including the most recent 06z run. So the 3 key players are the SE Canada trough (50/50 low), the southern stream wave, and the new shortwave dropping down from the northern stream (in S Dakota on the last image of the loop). Over time: 1) the 50/50 low has nudged southwest, 2) the model is seeing increased amplitude with the southern wave, and 3) the new northern stream shortwave is now getting more involved, and earlier. Note the trend of the height rises from Georgia up thru Kentucky. Height rises = warmer, and a more north solution (warmer aloft that is, not really at the surface where the damming high will do its dirty work). So, for a more south solution, we'd want to see the SE Canada trough to nudge more to the southwest, the southern stream wave to not be as amped, and to lessen the early involvement of the northern stream shortwave. The SW VA group would want to see it stay the same as it is now
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I think the cold damming is going to lock in pretty well with this one. Yeah, legit concerns for substantial ice...just a matter of how much sleet vs. frz rain, and where that shakes out
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I think though that we are headed in the direction of more of a Miller B or Miller B Hybrid as HkyWx calls it....where that was straight Miller A...so, I would expect much more mixed precip compared to that one, IMO
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It's a good point Mack and Iceage - yeah, that's why I've said all along that I want the southern wave to be left alone and for it to just track west to east without any northern stream interaction. If northern stream pieces are diving in early, it will want to sling shot the wave a bit northeast or at least raise the heights in the east which means more warming and more precip north - good for VA, bad for us. If it dives in for a late phase that's fine. Not really concerned with what the GFS is doing there. The bigger concern is just the Euro being maybe too far south / too suppressed compared to what really happens at go time. I was thinking earlier how @SnowGoose69 used to say that the Euro has a bias now where it tends to be more suppressed in the mid range compared to other models.
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It reminds me of the SREF...if it ends up being right, it's for the wrong reasons
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UKMet really evacuates the cold air at 850, pushing 0 deg line all the way up into S VA...didn't expect that based on the run at h5
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Yeah precip shield and thicknesses are a bit north this run
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The new UKMet looks fairly similar to its last run...it continues to slide the sfc low out off the GA/SC coast and on out to sea. It has a late phase, but maybe not as aggressive as the last run...but didn't trend north it doesn't look like on the early maps
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I think you mean the snow map. Here it is, but again, I'd be leary that it's showing too much snow on the southern and eastern edges here where there would likely be mixing cutting totals way back
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18z EPS Mean compared to the 12z EPS Mean was a bit more amplified with the wave...a little north with the sfc and 850mb low tracks. It was a little warmer from Bama thru TN again as the low tracks across the gulf coast while maintain the relative cold east of the Apps...so it continues to increase its recognition of the damming high to the north. The closed off 850mb low on the mean tracks from Birmingham, AL to Cape Hatteras. That track is very good for the N NC Mtns into SW VA, but problematic for warm nosing aloft from the upstate into parts of central NC
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Yeah the NAM run looks good all the way to the end at h5...real close to Euro. Here's the composite radar at the end
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The JMA brought the low up into GA, then moved it ENE off the NC coast, so it's warmer and north - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=jma&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018120412&fh=0
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Our low off California - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atlpac-wide&product=wv-mid
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Yep prepare for the worst (or best!) there now and see where it goes
