griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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Yeah, it looks just a touch north with the precip shield and temps...just barely..wonder if that small shortwave at 57 on the west coast is exerting some small influence
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Thru hr45, GFS is right on top of the last run at h5 and overall temps
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Was just about to post on this. In the what could go wrong category, you can see the dry slot moving from MS into Bama here as the system gets wound up. NW NC and into SW VA is the place to be in this simulation for precip duration. The stronger and more wound up the system is, the more dry slotting comes into play. Of course, there is explosive precip out ahead of that.
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At 81 on the NAM, there's snow at Mac's and Burrel's crib in the W upstate. Out to 84, heavy frz rain back to Atlanta and over to Columbia
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Out to 75 on the NAM, and there's another shortwave that dropped into the NE 50/50 low and there's more confluence now than the last run, so it looks like it will stay fairly suppressed
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In-laws live on a ridge at 3500 ft above Spruce Pine. A location you might consider is Little Switzerland. It's right at the top of the Blue Ridge escarpment and they tend to do well there with the upslope. SnoJoe in the mtn thread may have some advice too...lives in that county NAM out to 60. The wave running thru the Great Lakes wasn't as strong this run, so the heights jogged north in the NE, but our wave is a little south, so may not make much diff. Precip shield thru the Ark/La/Tex is a touch north though
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Oh my god, I see Mr. it will snow but not stick on the ground guy is back
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StormVista
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So the 18z Euro is now in, but it only goes out to hr90...and it has improvements for the southern participants of the subforum It's stronger and farther southwest with the shortwave rolling thru the Great Lakes and feeding into the 50/50 low over the northeast states, and the confluent flow over the NE is a touch stronger thru the run. Meanwhile, the backside wave looks like it would drop into the trough a little more than the 12z run (just guessing based on the look). At the end of the run at hr90, it has heavy precip in N GA with the sfc freezing line past Lake Lanier into NE side of Atlanta, and snow is breaking out in central and western NC into the NE upstate
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That was an unbelievably good run of the FV3...drops the backside wave in late and closes it off...big if true
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Live look at our storm coming into the west coast with tropical Pacific moisture tap engaged Loop here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atlpac-wide&product=wv-mid
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That’s ice cold for snow in the south
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Best run I’ve seen from any model for the Charlotte crowd
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Mack’s favorite the JMA looks dead on with the UKMet - also has the late phase and slowly exiting precip
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Just think, we have basically 48 hours of modeling left....that's an eternity for how things can change. We have a system that is going to bring a lot of warmth and juice out of the gulf into an airmass that is marginal aloft overall. Outside of the central and northern mountains, northern foothills, into SW VA, confidence should be tempered IMO for a big event. I post the snow maps like others, but I feel a little slimy doing it because heavy support for cold temperatures isn't there....and those maps are much heavier with snow than they should be along the edges. Wonder if anyone has the Eurowx site access...seems like they used to have much more tempered snow maps, etc.
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850mb low track is central MS to Wilmington on the Euro
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30 inches of clown snow for snowniner
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This is much more complicated now that the northern stream is getting involved in terms of the timing and location of how the two streams interact and how that affects how much the system wants to climb north....the 12z runs overall went more in the direction of the slider version vs. the version that hits the mid atlantic hard
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Mecklenburg county has roughly 0.75 of all snow before it goes to sleet on this run
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NS energy diving in late so precip is slow to exit
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Less interaction with the trailing northern stream wave this run. It is south of last run...looks similar to UKMet
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Euro out to 69...the northern stream wave is a little more in front of the southern stream from a longitude standpoint and the NE trough isn't as far to the east...think it could tick slightly south this run, but just guessing...tough to say
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UKMet tends to be skimpy with precip at range, so the precip amount signal is a big deal there
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UKMet Precip at 72
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UKMet 500mb
