griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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Snow maps are big, but the Euro temps aloft are sketchy. Not sure whether you go with synoptic climatology and say that there will be more dynamic cooling on the NW side of the low, or if you say that the pre-storm airmass aloft is just marginal so the starting point is too warm. Big, closed 850 low tracks from northern Louisiana to Pawley's Island, SC. That's pretty much textbook for the Charlotte area and north. If you look back at tonight's CMC run, it has what I would envision to see on the NW side of the 850mb low track, and that is dynamical cooling and heavy snow. The snow maps are picking up on the snow, but without having a sounding, it's hard to tell what's going on there. My guess is that it's just isothermal where the column is close to freezing as you go up a good distance. Anyway, the UKMet, Euro, and GFS have the exact same idea for the storm at the moment.
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If you are in to southern sliders, the Euro delivers. Precip shield was a little south this run...and the big northern stream wave is diving in hard now on the backside
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Thru 57 on the Euro I see a little more push southwest with the heights over Ohio/Indiana and a little less amp with the southern wave comparing this to the 12z run...so my guess is that it won't climb north this run...we'll see
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I mean, you hear that a lot, regarding Charlotte being on the transition line, but we've had plenty of good snows over the years here as well...but no doubt it's more difficult here. For this storm, I just think we are going to continue to see changes, so it's still a long ways out to really get into the specifics
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We are living on the edge in the southern piedmont as of now...ideally, we'd certainly want everything farther south
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Yes
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Not a big fan of this map projection, but trend loop here for the backside northern stream wave dropping in. You can see the NE trough is trending southwest (more confluence) and the western ridge is taller....essentially the flow is getting a little more blocked up and more amplified, forcing the wave to drop into the trough. The southern wave is trending a little less amplified as well, so it's not as close to the coast. Who knows where we go from here though - could easily trend back the other way over the next few days
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Frz rain at the end of the run from Atlanta to Columbia
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I have defended it at times in the past, but it has been really terrible this storm with how it has jumped around
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Yeah, it scoots it on off the coast
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The new UKMet looks pretty much identical with the GFS on the early maps
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yeah wow, the GFS is looking much like the FV3 on the backside wave dropping in...who knows how strong that precip will be, but an impressive evolution this far south
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If it dropped in earlier it would keep the low closer to the coast....it's a little late, so it goes over to showery precip on the backside. Northern stream really dropping in strong, late, this run, like FV3 18z
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At 87-90, snow line looks similar to last run...across N SC
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It sure looks like the Northern Stream is wave is going to drop in and prolong the precip more this run
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A little warmer initially in NC, but cooling kicks in nicely as precip rolls thru
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Looks like the northern stream shortwave over the Dakotas is going to drop in more on the backside this run
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Yeah, it looks just a touch north with the precip shield and temps...just barely..wonder if that small shortwave at 57 on the west coast is exerting some small influence
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Thru hr45, GFS is right on top of the last run at h5 and overall temps
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Was just about to post on this. In the what could go wrong category, you can see the dry slot moving from MS into Bama here as the system gets wound up. NW NC and into SW VA is the place to be in this simulation for precip duration. The stronger and more wound up the system is, the more dry slotting comes into play. Of course, there is explosive precip out ahead of that.
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At 81 on the NAM, there's snow at Mac's and Burrel's crib in the W upstate. Out to 84, heavy frz rain back to Atlanta and over to Columbia
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Out to 75 on the NAM, and there's another shortwave that dropped into the NE 50/50 low and there's more confluence now than the last run, so it looks like it will stay fairly suppressed
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In-laws live on a ridge at 3500 ft above Spruce Pine. A location you might consider is Little Switzerland. It's right at the top of the Blue Ridge escarpment and they tend to do well there with the upslope. SnoJoe in the mtn thread may have some advice too...lives in that county NAM out to 60. The wave running thru the Great Lakes wasn't as strong this run, so the heights jogged north in the NE, but our wave is a little south, so may not make much diff. Precip shield thru the Ark/La/Tex is a touch north though
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Oh my god, I see Mr. it will snow but not stick on the ground guy is back
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