griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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At what point do we stop saying that storms don't trend south, me included
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IMO you are looking good there from a precip standpoint...the models don't show the QPF now, but they will over time, IMO
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06z Euro ticked south again at 500mb. Classic slider look. And it's bringing the backside wave in better as well. The thing I can't shake here are the mid level temperatures. One would argue that the models will correct as we get closer and show more cooling on the NW side of the 850mb low track as the cooling from strong ascent offsets warm advection...that's normally how it works...but which one wins the battle, the strong dynamics and cooling that are almost certain to be there, vs. the marginal cold pre-storm airmass. On the topic of the mid-level drying in the soundings, if you look at relative humidity charts at the 500-600mb levels, you can see the drying (dry slot) working in, but it's obviously after a strong thump on the front side of the storm (think heavy rates). I will also say that the precip is almost certain to be expanded farther north than what the current QPF shows, especially given how this is going to get wound up into a comma head....so, still looks good to me in SW VA for example.
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If we can’t saturate the dam column in this setup, it’s time to quit
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I mean, that's what you would normally think, but the upper air pattern has been trending to suppress the storm a little. We'll see if that holds...but regardless, there is usually a late tick north
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Yes, the damming helps us on the east side, but ideally, you'd have the cold on both sides of the Apps, a la Jan1988
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The big ones that come to mind are Feb2004, Jan1988, Mar1983, Feb1979, Feb1969
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They just don't have the pre-storm cold air mass unfortunately, otherwise it's a perfect track for them
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Snow maps are big, but the Euro temps aloft are sketchy. Not sure whether you go with synoptic climatology and say that there will be more dynamic cooling on the NW side of the low, or if you say that the pre-storm airmass aloft is just marginal so the starting point is too warm. Big, closed 850 low tracks from northern Louisiana to Pawley's Island, SC. That's pretty much textbook for the Charlotte area and north. If you look back at tonight's CMC run, it has what I would envision to see on the NW side of the 850mb low track, and that is dynamical cooling and heavy snow. The snow maps are picking up on the snow, but without having a sounding, it's hard to tell what's going on there. My guess is that it's just isothermal where the column is close to freezing as you go up a good distance. Anyway, the UKMet, Euro, and GFS have the exact same idea for the storm at the moment.
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If you are in to southern sliders, the Euro delivers. Precip shield was a little south this run...and the big northern stream wave is diving in hard now on the backside
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Thru 57 on the Euro I see a little more push southwest with the heights over Ohio/Indiana and a little less amp with the southern wave comparing this to the 12z run...so my guess is that it won't climb north this run...we'll see
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I mean, you hear that a lot, regarding Charlotte being on the transition line, but we've had plenty of good snows over the years here as well...but no doubt it's more difficult here. For this storm, I just think we are going to continue to see changes, so it's still a long ways out to really get into the specifics
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We are living on the edge in the southern piedmont as of now...ideally, we'd certainly want everything farther south
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Yes
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Not a big fan of this map projection, but trend loop here for the backside northern stream wave dropping in. You can see the NE trough is trending southwest (more confluence) and the western ridge is taller....essentially the flow is getting a little more blocked up and more amplified, forcing the wave to drop into the trough. The southern wave is trending a little less amplified as well, so it's not as close to the coast. Who knows where we go from here though - could easily trend back the other way over the next few days
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Frz rain at the end of the run from Atlanta to Columbia
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I have defended it at times in the past, but it has been really terrible this storm with how it has jumped around
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Yeah, it scoots it on off the coast
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The new UKMet looks pretty much identical with the GFS on the early maps
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yeah wow, the GFS is looking much like the FV3 on the backside wave dropping in...who knows how strong that precip will be, but an impressive evolution this far south
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If it dropped in earlier it would keep the low closer to the coast....it's a little late, so it goes over to showery precip on the backside. Northern stream really dropping in strong, late, this run, like FV3 18z
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At 87-90, snow line looks similar to last run...across N SC
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It sure looks like the Northern Stream is wave is going to drop in and prolong the precip more this run
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A little warmer initially in NC, but cooling kicks in nicely as precip rolls thru
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Looks like the northern stream shortwave over the Dakotas is going to drop in more on the backside this run
