griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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I just looked thru the NAM, Euro, GFS, and FV3 with the 850 low track and temps, and it's not pretty. The FV3 is the coldest of the 4 even though its track is comparatively pretty far north....but it maintains the cold aloft the best on the front side of the storm in NC...it's the model to root for with the CLT To RDU crowd. The other thing to root for is for continued suppression of the southern wave...either via it taking a little bit more of a southerly track or the NE confluence coming in a little stronger. Anything that tracks the wave just a little farther south will want to make the 850mb low track a little farther south as well. It's probably a tall task, but that's what is needed. Here's the 850mb evolution on the FV3 on the front side of the storm:
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I'd like to revisit this...I will not get more snow than Newland or Lenoir or Hickory
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Thicknesses are a little colder on the NAM this run as precip is arriving
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Looks like to me that the NAM is going to be a touch south if anything this run
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It’ll be back in January with colder air, and blocking - take it to the dam bank
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By the way Niner your image is showing surface pressure instead of 850 heights, but with 850mb vorticity
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850 low tracks from Shreveport to Wilmingon...would prefer it to be Charleston for Charlotte proper with this strong of a closed low
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Euro looks great with the backside northern stream wave dropping in. Light snows down into GA and the upstate on Mon
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Looks like the Euro is going to be similar to UKMet and FV3, the big 3
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Thicknesses (and column temps) are a tick cooler thru the Carolinas on this run of the NAM....500mb is quite similar thru 57
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At what point do we stop saying that storms don't trend south, me included
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IMO you are looking good there from a precip standpoint...the models don't show the QPF now, but they will over time, IMO
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06z Euro ticked south again at 500mb. Classic slider look. And it's bringing the backside wave in better as well. The thing I can't shake here are the mid level temperatures. One would argue that the models will correct as we get closer and show more cooling on the NW side of the 850mb low track as the cooling from strong ascent offsets warm advection...that's normally how it works...but which one wins the battle, the strong dynamics and cooling that are almost certain to be there, vs. the marginal cold pre-storm airmass. On the topic of the mid-level drying in the soundings, if you look at relative humidity charts at the 500-600mb levels, you can see the drying (dry slot) working in, but it's obviously after a strong thump on the front side of the storm (think heavy rates). I will also say that the precip is almost certain to be expanded farther north than what the current QPF shows, especially given how this is going to get wound up into a comma head....so, still looks good to me in SW VA for example.
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If we can’t saturate the dam column in this setup, it’s time to quit
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I mean, that's what you would normally think, but the upper air pattern has been trending to suppress the storm a little. We'll see if that holds...but regardless, there is usually a late tick north
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Yes, the damming helps us on the east side, but ideally, you'd have the cold on both sides of the Apps, a la Jan1988
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The big ones that come to mind are Feb2004, Jan1988, Mar1983, Feb1979, Feb1969
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They just don't have the pre-storm cold air mass unfortunately, otherwise it's a perfect track for them
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Snow maps are big, but the Euro temps aloft are sketchy. Not sure whether you go with synoptic climatology and say that there will be more dynamic cooling on the NW side of the low, or if you say that the pre-storm airmass aloft is just marginal so the starting point is too warm. Big, closed 850 low tracks from northern Louisiana to Pawley's Island, SC. That's pretty much textbook for the Charlotte area and north. If you look back at tonight's CMC run, it has what I would envision to see on the NW side of the 850mb low track, and that is dynamical cooling and heavy snow. The snow maps are picking up on the snow, but without having a sounding, it's hard to tell what's going on there. My guess is that it's just isothermal where the column is close to freezing as you go up a good distance. Anyway, the UKMet, Euro, and GFS have the exact same idea for the storm at the moment.
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If you are in to southern sliders, the Euro delivers. Precip shield was a little south this run...and the big northern stream wave is diving in hard now on the backside
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Thru 57 on the Euro I see a little more push southwest with the heights over Ohio/Indiana and a little less amp with the southern wave comparing this to the 12z run...so my guess is that it won't climb north this run...we'll see
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I mean, you hear that a lot, regarding Charlotte being on the transition line, but we've had plenty of good snows over the years here as well...but no doubt it's more difficult here. For this storm, I just think we are going to continue to see changes, so it's still a long ways out to really get into the specifics
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We are living on the edge in the southern piedmont as of now...ideally, we'd certainly want everything farther south
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Yes
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Not a big fan of this map projection, but trend loop here for the backside northern stream wave dropping in. You can see the NE trough is trending southwest (more confluence) and the western ridge is taller....essentially the flow is getting a little more blocked up and more amplified, forcing the wave to drop into the trough. The southern wave is trending a little less amplified as well, so it's not as close to the coast. Who knows where we go from here though - could easily trend back the other way over the next few days
