griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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With temperatures, the key themes I'm seeing on the modeling is that there is going to be some level of warm nosing that presses inland as the storm matures and rolls thru. The warm nosing is stronger on the Euro compared to the GFS. The other aspect that you see is that heavy rates are efficiently cooling the column as you would expect...so that's key for areas along the ptype transition to get those heavy rates.
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Trend loop of our southern wave when it is in Texas...the wave on the GFS is trending flatter (less amplitude) which is the opposite of what we normally see with these. Note the small height fall trend thru Virginia and North Carolina. It's small, but it makes a difference. Along the precip type transition areas, that's the trend you want to see for a colder, more south solution. For the northern mountains and up into VA where precip type isn't an issue, you'd want the sharper wave for more precip.
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Total precip trend on the last 3 runs of the GFS
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Well I'm sure NOAA NCEP put a lot of work into trying to make the GFS better, so yes
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Thank you. If looked very similar with the mid level warmth moving in / overall temps
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Can’t post the map right now but 06z precip type / temperatures didn’t really change from the one I posted late last night, but the precip shield ticked south and amounts went up across the upstate and southern foothills/piedmont where it has 2.5 to 3.0 storm total liquid
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I think I've slept less this week than any in my life, and I need a new strategy, that's what I think. Such a tough area there to forecast. I'd go 2-4 inches of snow/sleet. Precip should be on the heavy side and lead to cooling thru the column, but hard to be aggressive with totals in that region as well as here given the temps. Good luck!
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Yeah, they can be modeled too warm with CAD, but that's at the surface. The warmth is going to pour in aloft out of the SE and East. Tough forecast. The FV3 solution of holding the cold via strong ascent (strong rising motion is a cooling mechanism thru the column) isn't out of the question, but I don't think it's right. Time will tell
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I agree with your comment that our airmass is marginal, but just a note that your map here is for Tuesday aftn, well after the storm
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Prior to the 00z runs I said 1-3 of snow/sleet/slop for Charlotte, then up to 1 inch with the backside snow showers on Monday. I would now change that to 3-6 of snow changing to sleet, then up to an inch of snow on Monday. This precip should come in fast and furious Saturday evening and overnight.
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Yeah, I don't think it makes any sense regarding how it's not good and cold on the backside as the low departs....I do agree more with the Euro compared to the FV3 regarding how the Euro scours the mid level cold and brings the warmth well inland. It looks like the UKMet agrees per UNCC's map (thanks for those)
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Euro PType Loop
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You can see here how the Euro doesn't hold the cold in NC as much as the GFS/FV3 as the 850 low treks east
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Euro Precip
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The backside snow showers / light snow looks good again on this run...we'll post a few maps shortly
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Temps leave a lot to be desired in parts of the piedmont and east, but that's how the Euro has looked all along
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It brings the 0 deg 850 line well inland again, but there's heavy comma head snow for Frosty and the foothills
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18z was a wet run of the Euro and this one looks just as wet if not wetter out to 60 where it's snowing heavily in NE upstate and western NC, over to CLT and RDU and NW into S VA
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Euro out to 48, compared to 18z, it's maybe just a touch colder thru NC (thicknesses) and precip shield is a touch south...small diff
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That's a long event
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There's the post we've been looking for. Nice! Straight up, I love where you are located with this one (as usual). Precip is going to be farther north than currently shown IMO even if the track is the same...and you have better ratios there...just wait it out
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UKMet Precip
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Noteworthy jump for a 6 hr model run separation this late in the game.
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Nudged south maybe it looks like??
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UKMet has the low on the southern LA coast at 48, then a decent amount off the coast of Charleston at 72 - probably similar to previous run
