griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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I would just say that it's always a plus to see it on the cold side because if any model is going to be warm in the mid levels it's the HRRR and NAM
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Well it's kind of impressive to see the HRRR be this cold to the south
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Sure seems like it’s NAM and the Canadian models against UKMet / GFS / Euro regarding the southern fringe temps and the northern extent of the precip shield - 2 disparate camps
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You sure are needy For you it jerked the 850 0 deg below you for a 6 hr period during peak storm. For CLT, it was south of us a good bit of the storm. I’m away at the moment Yes on Vista. Weathermodels has it too
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Looks more like a cold nose than a warm one
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Well the 18z Euro was the best run I’ve seen of it yet as well on the southern transition zone (colder)
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Yep, impressive looking for sure. Loop - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atlpac-wide&product=wv-mid
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Euro Ensemble Mean Total Precip - last 4 runs....it shows 2.0 inches liquid there from Asheville to Charlotte. I distinctly remember it showing around 1.6 inches for the Feb '14 storm as a QPF comparison.
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I still like 3-6 inches of snow to sleet in center city Charlotte (as I mentioned late last night). If the precip wasn't going to be as heavy, I'd probably go 1-3, but I'm expecting fairly heavy precip and just enough cooling for it to pile up quick before a flip to sleet.
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If you really want to dive in deep with the Euro on a free site, you can view temperatures at many layers at this link. It takes some getting use to, but for example, it has the vertical scroll bar on the right side here where you can essentially move up and down the column of the atmosphere and view not only 850mb temps, but 800mb temps as well. The Euro run that is out there now is the 00z from last night as it takes it a little longer to update. It says the 1z run will update around 3:30 https://www.windy.com/-Temperature-temp?850h,temp,2018-12-09-18,35.376,-80.145,8,p:off
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Euro
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Euro Total Precip last 4 runs
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Well there's no shortage of precip on the Euro up thru NC and it has more precip to the NW like the UKMet....temps looks similar...it's bringing the 0 deg at 850 back well inland
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Euro through 39 is a little north with the precip thru GA and TN...temps look pretty much dead on in NC
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UKMet total precip...the total precip moved a little northwest thru W NC on this last run
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UKMet. As far as temps go, it has the 850 0 deg back into central NC much of the storm it looks like
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FV3 Loop
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With temperatures, the key themes I'm seeing on the modeling is that there is going to be some level of warm nosing that presses inland as the storm matures and rolls thru. The warm nosing is stronger on the Euro compared to the GFS. The other aspect that you see is that heavy rates are efficiently cooling the column as you would expect...so that's key for areas along the ptype transition to get those heavy rates.
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Trend loop of our southern wave when it is in Texas...the wave on the GFS is trending flatter (less amplitude) which is the opposite of what we normally see with these. Note the small height fall trend thru Virginia and North Carolina. It's small, but it makes a difference. Along the precip type transition areas, that's the trend you want to see for a colder, more south solution. For the northern mountains and up into VA where precip type isn't an issue, you'd want the sharper wave for more precip.
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Total precip trend on the last 3 runs of the GFS
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Well I'm sure NOAA NCEP put a lot of work into trying to make the GFS better, so yes
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Thank you. If looked very similar with the mid level warmth moving in / overall temps
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Can’t post the map right now but 06z precip type / temperatures didn’t really change from the one I posted late last night, but the precip shield ticked south and amounts went up across the upstate and southern foothills/piedmont where it has 2.5 to 3.0 storm total liquid
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I think I've slept less this week than any in my life, and I need a new strategy, that's what I think. Such a tough area there to forecast. I'd go 2-4 inches of snow/sleet. Precip should be on the heavy side and lead to cooling thru the column, but hard to be aggressive with totals in that region as well as here given the temps. Good luck!
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Yeah, they can be modeled too warm with CAD, but that's at the surface. The warmth is going to pour in aloft out of the SE and East. Tough forecast. The FV3 solution of holding the cold via strong ascent (strong rising motion is a cooling mechanism thru the column) isn't out of the question, but I don't think it's right. Time will tell
