griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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The NAM is the new Dr No
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Yeah Euro bumped north with precip and temps
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Upper level divergence on the GFS....this is what the big ones look like
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RAP and HRRR are usually boiling with heat...so, it's good to see though the NAM has a great track record with these winter storms over recent years....I think we all just need to move to the high country and be done with it
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University of Wyoming has a good site for the actual balloon launch soundings (launched twice a day at 12z and 00z) - http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html
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On the topic of the upper waves. The core of our storm is the upper wave currently over W Texas. The trailing upper wave that drops down is currently over N Montana / Saskatchewan - it will drop SE into Arkansas and down thru the SE. Some earlier model runs were more impressive with it, but not as much now. Still, the 06z Euro says there could be some light snow showers with it Sunday overnight into Monday morning in E TN / N GA / W NCSC
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Euro Total Precip trend
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For some reason, I don't see the 06z and 18z runs on weathermodels now...not sure what's going on there. Here's the 06z Euro run on Vista with the 850 low, then the second map is the sfc temps. It's north of an ideal track for northern upstate into CLT but it tries to bring wet snow/sleet in that area with heavy dynamics as it rolls thru.
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I would just say that it's always a plus to see it on the cold side because if any model is going to be warm in the mid levels it's the HRRR and NAM
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Well it's kind of impressive to see the HRRR be this cold to the south
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Sure seems like it’s NAM and the Canadian models against UKMet / GFS / Euro regarding the southern fringe temps and the northern extent of the precip shield - 2 disparate camps
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You sure are needy For you it jerked the 850 0 deg below you for a 6 hr period during peak storm. For CLT, it was south of us a good bit of the storm. I’m away at the moment Yes on Vista. Weathermodels has it too
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Looks more like a cold nose than a warm one
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Well the 18z Euro was the best run I’ve seen of it yet as well on the southern transition zone (colder)
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Yep, impressive looking for sure. Loop - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atlpac-wide&product=wv-mid
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Euro Ensemble Mean Total Precip - last 4 runs....it shows 2.0 inches liquid there from Asheville to Charlotte. I distinctly remember it showing around 1.6 inches for the Feb '14 storm as a QPF comparison.
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I still like 3-6 inches of snow to sleet in center city Charlotte (as I mentioned late last night). If the precip wasn't going to be as heavy, I'd probably go 1-3, but I'm expecting fairly heavy precip and just enough cooling for it to pile up quick before a flip to sleet.
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If you really want to dive in deep with the Euro on a free site, you can view temperatures at many layers at this link. It takes some getting use to, but for example, it has the vertical scroll bar on the right side here where you can essentially move up and down the column of the atmosphere and view not only 850mb temps, but 800mb temps as well. The Euro run that is out there now is the 00z from last night as it takes it a little longer to update. It says the 1z run will update around 3:30 https://www.windy.com/-Temperature-temp?850h,temp,2018-12-09-18,35.376,-80.145,8,p:off
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Euro
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Euro Total Precip last 4 runs
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Well there's no shortage of precip on the Euro up thru NC and it has more precip to the NW like the UKMet....temps looks similar...it's bringing the 0 deg at 850 back well inland
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Euro through 39 is a little north with the precip thru GA and TN...temps look pretty much dead on in NC
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UKMet total precip...the total precip moved a little northwest thru W NC on this last run
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UKMet. As far as temps go, it has the 850 0 deg back into central NC much of the storm it looks like
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FV3 Loop
