griteater

12z GFS is a clipper with light mtn snows on Sat/Sat night...night and day difference with the wave handling compared to the ICON

12z ICON has a healthy wave diving way south into the gulf at the end of the run Sun night. Hard to say how much it would turn the corner and pump precip inland as the wave is a bit positive tilt, but I'll take that look for sure at this juncture. 00z CMC was amped and on the warm side. The new 12z run is chilly, but weak and off the coast with the low

Yeah Orangeburgwx, I wouldn’t get trigger happy with this one. Give it a couple more days to see if there is more of a concensus. 5 days with multiple model support is a solid rule that we have. Just my opinion

FV3 had a second good storm 3 days later

The 00z GEFS Mean is improved. Here are the last 6 runs for next Monday...last image is the most recent run at 00z

Yes, the NOAA site gets it out quickly. It says "GFS", but it's the "eval" site, as in, evaluating the new version of the model (the FV3 version)

Just wobbles on a day 8 system so it’s too far out to have more than a casual interest

It's out on the NOAA eval site - https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=model

Yeah, that's what you see with the various ensemble members....some west and well developed...some east and well developed.....some east and weaker

FV3 doesn't develop the low and precip very much this run (low is farther east), but it has light snows in E NC. h5 wave looked similar to 18z overall.

It had an h5 improvement though

The overall setup is pretty good for a northern stream system. We get an arctic front to plow thru on Friday, then before there is time for a warm-up, the next wave dives into the trough fairly sharply. A good version of this type of setup would be the storm from just a year ago in mid-Jan...i.e. a Saskatchewan Screamer that manages to be sharp enough where it actually draws up some warm advection and forcing for ascent to generate precip

GFS is improved this run for next Sunday (yikes, long way out). Kind of looks like the decent FV3 run from 18z

Could be, I didn't think anyone could out snowmap WxBell, but maybe this one does lol. You know the SV map says total snow and doesn't indicate ensemble mean, so maybe it's a total of all members. It's showing some action at least

12z EPS has below normal temperatures (850mb) from day 6 to the end of the run at day 15, so that's a start. Here is mean snowfall on the 18z GEFS for days 7 to 16. I've seen worse

Southeast winter climatology doesn’t really warrant the hang wringing we see in here, but it’s part of the deal with watching model runs

NOAA temperature outlook for days 8-14 (Jan 25-31) "FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5, DUE TO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 500-HPA HEIGHT, TEMPERATURE, AND PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN."

All NAO blocks aren't created equal. This is what a good one looks like on what I believe must be from the Euro Seasonal for February (image courtesy of @bennollweather). All long range caveats apply, as we won't be able to kick the can much longer.

Now here is a trend loop of the last 16 runs over the past 4 days of the GFS Ensemble Mean for Jan 28 (at day 10). The axis of the western ridging has trended east with it initially more thru Alaska, but now it's closer to the W Canada coast. This is a good position in between pure Alaska ridging (-EPO) which can sometimes be too far west (sometimes the U.S. trough can be too far west), and pure Western Canada ridging (+PNA) which can sometimes be too far east (cold, but sometimes on the dry side). Also, the polar blocking on the trend loop has waxed and waned, but the latest few images show a bit more Greenland blocking (-NAO).

Seeking out a winter storm prior to next weekend is a bit cart before the horse IMO (and as others have mentioned). Here is the GFS Ensemble Mean for days 0-10. As long as it continues to hold, the kickoff to a colder regime begins with this ridge building up along the western North America coast. That ridge goes up at day 5 now.

Today's Euro has one of the bigger arctic blasts you'll ever see at day 10

So the MJO deals with where convection is being enhanced / suppressed in the tropics, and this typically has a large influence on the EPO and PNA patterns across the Pacific and North America. For this time of year, when the convection is enhanced from the Eastern Indian Ocean, to the Maritime Continent (Indonesia), to the Western Pacific (phases 3-6), a +EPO / -PNA pattern is favored (central / eastern U.S. ridging). When the convection is suppressed in those same regions (phases 7-8-1-2), a -EPO / +PNA pattern is favored (central / eastern U.S. troughing). But that is what is "favored". Other processes will influence the overall pattern. With the NOAA MJO update I posted a few pages back, they favor the MJO making a quick trek through phases 3-4-5 in week 1, before making a move toward phase 7 in week 2, and they state that the MJO is not expected to have a large influence on the pattern. In spite of that, for a cold eastern U.S., we never want to see the MJO in the warm phases (3-4-5-6), so it remains to be see whether forecasted -EPO / +PNA patterns come to fruition - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51836-mid-to-long-term-discussion-2019/?do=findComment&comment=5117686 The MJO does have some influence on the AO and NAO but the processes which produce AO/NAO blocking are complex and can be largely separate from the MJO, including stratospheric influences.

The day 15 EPS analogs have both Atlanta Snowjams, lol - Jan 1982 and Jan 2014 (image courtesy of @commoditywx)

From NOAA's latest MJO Weekly Update...

Winter temperatures to date