griteater

Yeah the GFS looks pathetic for Sunday, but the 18z FV3 turns the corner with the wave in the gulf and has some phasing and produces some good late-blooming snow with the SE coastal low

I kind of doubt we get a good 50/50 low in this setup, but each of the ensembles (Euro/GFS/Canadian) hint at a couple of storm chances in the Sunday-Wed timeframe, even if they are low chance at this point.

This type of Hudson Bay / James Bay Vortex pattern isn't the best at producing highs over the Great Lakes and Northeast with a 50/50 low. However, when the trough is established across the conus, it can be a good mechanism for getting storms to track across the south with cold air in abundance lurking to the northwest. Here's an example storm that did work out in this type of pattern from New Years Day in 1962. Storm Totals were: Atlanta: 1.0 Gainesville, GA: 5.0 Charlotte: 6.0 Asheville: 6.9 Greensboro: 6.6 The wave/sfc low are off the British Columbia coast at the start of the loop...

Here's the 12z EPS Mean for Sunday/Monday. I think the move toward suppressing this thru the gulf is perfectly fine. I think the area of "greater concern" is the warming tendency. If the wave detaches from the northern stream, you lose some of the cold air that is necessary to keep the column cold enough east of the mtns and on the NW side of the low.

It’s another vigorous run of the Euro with the wave diving into the northern gulf. Looks like snows from Atlanta to Charlotte and north/northwest some. It looks a lot like the FV3 run but a bit west (warmer in E NC)

UKMet not digging the wave as much this run. It has a weak clipper type low moving into W TN at hr144.

Snow on the 00z FV3

00z FV3 is a hit. It digs the wave, then separates it from the northern stream before rounding the base of the trough and going negative tilt through the Carolinas. It manages to be just cold enough on the NW side in spite of disconnecting from the northern stream

GFS just rots the system in the gulf lol. Historically, that means it’s game on for us

GFS looks improved for sure this run

Yes the ICON has a bomb of a wave and sfc low (990mb) in the gulf

GEFS mean didn’t look as good this run

Agree it was a better run on the GFS. 18z FV3 looks pretty good at h5 with the wave, but it struggles to throw precip inland. It was a good run for RDU area, though sfc temps may be sketchy.

UKMet on left / Euro on right at hr144 (at end of UKMet run). Largely similar for a day 6 map. Euro is a little more relaxed with the height field along the east coast, allowing the wave to get to neutral and spin up a good storm after this point.

I think folks were just discussing it in here...not realizing it was going to be misconstrued as hype Yeah, we could use some good cold though

Euro Ens Mean shows some slight improvement. West coast ridge is a little taller and the wave digs south a little more. More signal for the sfc low off the SE coast. The 51 member mean will move in baby steps - to be expected.

Think you'd do a little better than it shows, but as depicted, it's a bit of a late bloomer where the system can't draw in moisture from its southeast and generate precip until the trough gets to neutral tilt.

Could be a fun event to track...east of the mtns we need the Friday arctic boundary to do its job to usher in the cold and push the baroclinic boundary down into the northern gulf

12z Euro Loop

Euro at 180

Yeah Euro is in the ICON/FV3/UKMet camp digging the wave nicely. Closes off the wave in the gulf south of Pensacola at 174. Warm in E NC though

Here's the 12z GEFS Mean which continues to look pretty good

Wave is digging nicely into Texas. It would struggle to round the bend with that look, but I prefer the south/suppressed look at this juncture

12z UKMet is digging the wave nicely down into the Rio Grande of West Texas at 144...some decent looks with the FV3/ICON/UKMet

New 12z FV3 is close to the ICON look. It has a nice backside wave that dives down into the conus trough into New Mexico, then along the gulf coast with sfc low from NE gulf to off the SE coast. It doesn't quite turn the corner and pump good precip inland