griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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Mack’s favorite the JMA looks dead on with the UKMet - also has the late phase and slowly exiting precip
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Just think, we have basically 48 hours of modeling left....that's an eternity for how things can change. We have a system that is going to bring a lot of warmth and juice out of the gulf into an airmass that is marginal aloft overall. Outside of the central and northern mountains, northern foothills, into SW VA, confidence should be tempered IMO for a big event. I post the snow maps like others, but I feel a little slimy doing it because heavy support for cold temperatures isn't there....and those maps are much heavier with snow than they should be along the edges. Wonder if anyone has the Eurowx site access...seems like they used to have much more tempered snow maps, etc.
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850mb low track is central MS to Wilmington on the Euro
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30 inches of clown snow for snowniner
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This is much more complicated now that the northern stream is getting involved in terms of the timing and location of how the two streams interact and how that affects how much the system wants to climb north....the 12z runs overall went more in the direction of the slider version vs. the version that hits the mid atlantic hard
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Mecklenburg county has roughly 0.75 of all snow before it goes to sleet on this run
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NS energy diving in late so precip is slow to exit
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Less interaction with the trailing northern stream wave this run. It is south of last run...looks similar to UKMet
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Euro out to 69...the northern stream wave is a little more in front of the southern stream from a longitude standpoint and the NE trough isn't as far to the east...think it could tick slightly south this run, but just guessing...tough to say
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UKMet tends to be skimpy with precip at range, so the precip amount signal is a big deal there
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UKMet Precip at 72
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UKMet 500mb
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It's Miller B hybrid basically...the advantage with this storm is having the damming high out front. We haven't had that in some recent winter storms. So, upstate to Charlotte to Raleigh, you just hope to get smacked with the early heavy overrunning portion of the storm before the warming aloft moves in....and make no mistake about it, it will move in with this setup. Of course, things will change on the models over the next 3 days...that's almost a certainty.
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source for early FV3?
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GFS Total Liquid
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12z GFS
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New UKMet looks a lot like the GFS...though the sfc low isn't as close to the coast along the Carolina coast
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I know the Huffman boys have done some work on this in the past with surface low benchmarks....but I will say that there are various types of storms and various configurations at 850 and 500mb, so you kind of have to put them in storm type groups before establishing some of those benchmarks above the surface.
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Just a note that the ICON takes the sfc temperatures to below freezing in CLT and parts of the upstate as the precip rolls thru (i.e. icy mix instead of rain)
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Some of the runs closed off the 500mb wave nicely and moved it slowly thru the southeast...so in that case yes, you'd see that type of dynamical cooling and lingering of the precip. But that non-withstanding, we can look a little lower at the 850mb low track. For this setup, with a good closed 850mb low like this, for the upstate into Charlotte, we'd want to see that low track say from S MS to coastal SC. That keeps the mid-level warming in check and you'd have good lift and cooling there on the NW side of the 850 low track (Miller A scenario). Looking at the 06z FV3 GFS, it tracks the 850 low roughly from N MS to Cape Hatteras...so, that's too far north to keep it all snow in this region (brings in too much warming aloft). Verbatim, the 06z FV3 GFS does have quite a bit of snow, but you get the picture...it puts us on the edge on that run
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I thought the NAM looked really good save the last couple of frames where it looked like the northern shortwaves toppling the west coast ridge were starting to exert their influence on the southern wave (it looks fine for the more northwest areas)
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It’s the ewall Franklin gets heavy front end frontogenesis thump look
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Get the northern stream to leave the southern wave alone, move the 50/50 low a little southwest (-NAO would help), and have better pre-storm cold...hang in there, it's early in the El Nino winter
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You got it Niner. Trend loop here on the EPS, including the most recent 06z run. So the 3 key players are the SE Canada trough (50/50 low), the southern stream wave, and the new shortwave dropping down from the northern stream (in S Dakota on the last image of the loop). Over time: 1) the 50/50 low has nudged southwest, 2) the model is seeing increased amplitude with the southern wave, and 3) the new northern stream shortwave is now getting more involved, and earlier. Note the trend of the height rises from Georgia up thru Kentucky. Height rises = warmer, and a more north solution (warmer aloft that is, not really at the surface where the damming high will do its dirty work). So, for a more south solution, we'd want to see the SE Canada trough to nudge more to the southwest, the southern stream wave to not be as amped, and to lessen the early involvement of the northern stream shortwave. The SW VA group would want to see it stay the same as it is now
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I think the cold damming is going to lock in pretty well with this one. Yeah, legit concerns for substantial ice...just a matter of how much sleet vs. frz rain, and where that shakes out
