griteater

94/42 now at ATL at 5pm 93/56 at CLT No end in sight in the long range with the summer warmth. Yuck

Currently 93/45 at Fulton County airport. 92/51 at ATL

Euro has a temperature of 94 with a dewpoint of 44 Friday afternoon in Atlanta - in the hot, dry subsidence zone on the backside of Dorian

After Monday, no outrageous heat showing on the Euro Ensemble into early August with weak troughing in the eastern U.S.

Yeah it may help early on. Ensembles not showing the late May stuff, but it shows the ridge building to where it would be warmer than normals

Euro model Friday 2pm temperature / dewpoint under sunny skies: Greensboro: 72 / 47 Columbia: 77 / 49

Some nice temperature days this week (for summer). Ensembles show the ridge building across the southern 1/3 of the country going into the last week of June which would bring more high heat into the picture

5.20 storm total here

Well, it looks like Thursday thru Saturday will be a welcome site. More sun than not with highs south and east of the mtns in the 75-85 degree range.

Water release this evening at Cowans Ford Dam (Lake Norman). Just drove across

I have 4.80 inches of rain storm total. Just cloudy at the moment

Really sorry to hear it Calc. Hopefully the rain avoids you going forward. Storm total rain since Wed AM

Lots of lightning firing in those cells from Athens to Augusta - moving NNE

The trajectory of the training cells here traveling south to north and NNW, and banking up against the Blue Ridge looks rather ominous for heavy rains and localized to regional flash flooding. Precipitable water / moisture content is high. Focus of the heavy rain threat looks to extend thru Sunday night. From latest Excessive Rainfall Discussion from WPC: PWs and instability will be on the increase again during the day and expect multiple rounds/clusters of storms through the period as additional shortwave impulses rotate around the mid/upper level trough to the west. A nearly stationary west to east boundary should help focus activity and support periodic backbuilding/training. The location of the main boundary appears to be a bit further south by later today...likely in the vicinity of central and western NC/SC. By later this afternoon into tonight we also will see an increase in 850mb southeasterly flow, which should add an orographic component to the rainfall along/east of the southern Appalachians across northeast GA into western NC/SC. The combination of the frontal boundary and increased upslope flow with time, suggests the likelihood of pockets of heavy rainfall into tonight. Would expect flash flooding to become increasingly common with time as soils saturate...and the setup does suggests the potential for at least localized significant flash flooding. The highest threat this morning is across western NC into southwestVA...and shifts southward a bit later today into tonight, with the greatest focus expected to be from far northeast GA into western SC/NC. This event does have the potential to produce high end flash flooding, especially by later today into tonight from northeast GA into the western Carolinas...and so will need to closely monitor trends across this region.

Had heavy rain with a little thunder roll thru. 2.2 inches of rain so far today

No sign of any big heat ridges on the ensembles over the next 15 days

Since 1964, the high temperature in Charlotte has been 95 degrees or higher in May only one time (May 31, 2011). 3 days this May have reached 95 degrees (May 25, 26, 28), with that number being threatened again today. Interestingly enough, between 1878 and 1964, there were 30 such occurrences of 95+ degree days in May.

Not a cloud in the sky here today. Dewpoints / Humidity are down east of the mountains and temperatures are high, and it's breezy....an early summer scorcher. Some relief is on the way beginning Friday and thru next week.

FV3 goes operational in June if all goes well with the final 30 day technical test https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pns19-09gfs_v15_1.pdf

A boost to subsurface warmth may be on the way... From NOAA Weekly MJO Report (May 6) - "Some erosion of upper ocean heat content is apparent east of the Maritime Continent, but most noteworthy is a westerly wind burst appears underway near 150E. This is likely to trigger a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave to help reinforce the warm water availability for the low frequency state in the Pacific."

^ Isolated tornadoes seems like appropriate wording. Modest directional wind shear is a limiting factor for more and stronger tornadoes IMO, not to mention the current E NC rain

Why does the NAO hate us so much?

Some decent bursts of snow here near Cowans Ford Dam at the back edge of precip

After moving NW for a few runs, the Euro has moved SE with the precip shield in its last 2 runs including the new 18z run. Greenville and west gets less than a tenth on this run. Charlotte is around 0.25

The word from GSP... Clouds will begin to increase tonight as storm system across southern Georgia and southern South Carolina amplifies and then moves up the eastern coast. Most of the precipitation with this system is southeast of the GSP region, but some is expected Tuesday morning. Cold-air damming with northeasterly surface flow will keep surface temperatures low enough for possible snow, without making much of a warm nose. 12Z NAM soundings show clear-cut snow soundings in some places, though with surface temperatures just barely cold enough. Tuesday morning lows, which take wet-bulb effect into account to some extent, are generally just above freezing in piedmont areas. Areas with heavier precipitation could see more wet bulbing, and have a greater chance of getting some snow accumulation. Both the NAM and the HREF have the most snow along south of I85 where heavier precipitation and more wet-bulbing occurs. Otherwise, rain mixed with snow with fairly quick melting is anticipated Tuesday morning, with some slush possible on area roads. Higher elevations in the mountains may see general snow, but precip. amounts are expected to be lighter there.