griteater

AO has been brutal since Jan 1. AO forecast is high and trending UP

My understanding from years back is that a Meteorologist is someone who has a college degree in Meteorology. Pro Forecaster is someone who is, or has been, employed in the weather forecasting industry, but doesn’t have the Meteorology degree.

Yeah let’s see how it plays out, but we’ve essentially been shutout so far on storm threats. That’s the one that stands out of the 3 you mentioned. Even in the horrid winter of 11-12, we had the one weak storm in Feb across parts of NC

Could go down as one of the worst winters ever if @Isotherm is correct with his new update. He's done very well with his outlook so far (unlike me!) - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52684-my-winter-outlook-2019-2020/?do=findComment&comment=5430163

What brought you back? An offer you couldn’t refuse?

The 500mb wave has to dive down and bottom out farther to the southwest or nothing else matters. Most, but not all, simulations dive the wave down too far east. Other possibility is getting a southern stream wave to streak in a couple days later and prior to the cold high retreating off the NE coast

12z Euro control was a big hit next week over a portion of NE NC and SE VA

Long range on the 12 zeez wasn’t too kind. CMC Ens was the coldest, but less western ridging and not as cold on the GEFS and EPS. The western ridging is kind of a must have given the unrelenting +AO. The split flow and southern stream look remains though which is good

Harsh but fair i like the idea of the wave next week diving well south but question whether it will be far enough west. Need that trough in the NE Pac to quit impinging on our western ridge. The setup is close enough for now anyway. Maybe happy hour will throw us a bone

GFS is a convoluted mess at 500mb, but that’s the cold high pressure we obviously need to hook up with

That’s the best looking surface high over the Midwest I’ve seen on a model run in a long time (00z GFS early next week)

#3 is beautiful for example (from 18z GEFS Members). Some other hits in there

It's kind of funny that folks have been talking about the lack of +AAM causing it to be warm, then now, there is talk of us getting too much +AAM with a warm result as well. So with the +AAM and MJO circuit thru 7-8-1, we should expect to see the Pacific jet extend, leading to a tendency of seeing an Aleutian / North Pac Low with western ridging and split flow (ideal)...but too much +AAM / too strong MJO and you get scenario 2 I mentioned earlier where the jet extension / westerly flow is too strong and the western ridging gets broken down and doesn't sustain itself (cool at times, but not cold enough)

Clearly, the first period of interest following the Fri-Sat mix to rain deal is next Monday - Tuesday where we look to see if the northern stream can dig far enough south and west to ignite a SE coastal storm.

MJO amplitude continues to grow on the MJO plots. Shown are the Euro MJO changes over the last 6 days...and the CFS MJO changes over the last 3 days. The GFS plots are similar to the CFS though the CFS holds a higher amplitude into Phase 8. Personally, I believe the CFS has the right idea here. The 2 most likely outcomes IMO are: 1) We get an Aleutian Low developing in the mean pattern, with western ridging, and a nice split flow of storm waves into California in the southern stream <OR> 2) The westerly flow is too overwhelming and attempts at western ridging aren't as aggressive, leading to pattern that is maybe cool at times, but not cold enough. It is interesting to note that the Euro/EPS has been the least aggressive with western ridging - but it is also the least aggressive with the MJO circuit. It's possible that the EPS trends colder in late Jan / early Feb if it continues to correct the MJO with more amplitude.

Not sure why this is so hard to understand year after year. It would be like trying to predict the exact price of your favorite stock 9 days from now. You may have a general idea on the way things are headed, but impossible to pin down the specifics 12z EPS was a little colder with respect to reloading the cold out at range with a bit better western ridging. Not a big deal to see that on the more cold-biased GEFS, but nice to see on the EPS.

Yes, it’s exactly what I want to see right now. Western ridging sending cold flow / cold high pressure out of Canada and into the central U.S. with weak waves (for now) suppressed and traversing the southern stream. Both the GFS and CMC show it tonight. Now let’s get the Euro/EPS to join

That’s what it’s going to take to get the job done. I’d like to see a colder look on the EPS with the 500mb pattern. GEFS can have more of a cold bias at range

Looked that way initially, but a western Canada ridge spike drove more cold in as the better subtropical wave moved in. Good looking setup regardless of final outcome here

Here it is on the surface maps (GEFS)

This is actually a really good look here on the GEFS Mean days 7-10 - be nice to see the other ensembles with a similar look

We're begging for a sfc low on the GFS Op at day 10...ha, good stuff

Give these a try for forecasted cloud cover (American NAM and Canadian RGEM - 2 high resolution / short range models). The date/time of the model run is in the dropdown on the upper right side (defaulted to the most recent model run). If you have questions about it, just ask https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=cfractot&runtime=2020011200&fh=1 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=neus&pkg=cfractot&runtime=2020011200&fh=1

High temperature today in Charleston, WV was 80. Record high was previously 71. Normal high for the day is 42. Here's the temperature anomaly map for January to date + the GFS 7 day forecast Pattern thus far since Dec 1 has been about as bad as it can be for wintry prospects. The blues (negative anomalies) are in all the wrong places.