griteater

Here is the Integrated Water Vapor Transport chart showing the large values / large arrows

WPC Excessive Rainfall Discussion... ...Southeast... Widespread heavy rainfall is expected today across much of the Southeast with impressive moisture parameters in place. Both PWs (Precipitable Water) and IVT (Integrated Water Vapor Transport) are around maximum values for early February over the entire Southeast (it is quite impressive to see such a large geographic area with around record values). Thus it seems fair to say that from a moisture and moisture transport perspective you will not see a better setup this time of year than what this event will have to work with.

We’re not even getting into punt formation this winter. We’re throwing pick 6’s and getting strip sacked. Maybe we can pull a late fluke after a lot of warmth like Feb ‘89

Best we could do today (about 30 min ago)

Some large flakes mixing in with the rain in these heavier returns on radar

Light rain with a few flakes mixed in...37 degrees. Looks like this will end up somewhere between the morning 3km NAM and HRRR

3km NAM sounding at 1PM for Lincolnton, NC

Flakes flying in Brevard on webcam from @Hvward https://www.ashevillewx.com/tj-hooper-nationwide-brevard-live-camera

Go with wet bulb temperatures. You need wet bulb temperatures through the atmosphere to be close to freezing or lower I've seen snow at temperatures as warm as 43, and sleet as warm as 50.

Latest HRRR at 1PM and 2PM today

Latest 3km NAM at 2pm and 3pm today

Widespread snow from Birmingham to Raleigh is quite rare for any month, but the March 1983 storm fits the general narrative

AO has been brutal since Jan 1. AO forecast is high and trending UP

Yeah let’s see how it plays out, but we’ve essentially been shutout so far on storm threats. That’s the one that stands out of the 3 you mentioned. Even in the horrid winter of 11-12, we had the one weak storm in Feb across parts of NC

Could go down as one of the worst winters ever if @Isotherm is correct with his new update. He's done very well with his outlook so far (unlike me!) - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52684-my-winter-outlook-2019-2020/?do=findComment&comment=5430163

What brought you back? An offer you couldn’t refuse?

The 500mb wave has to dive down and bottom out farther to the southwest or nothing else matters. Most, but not all, simulations dive the wave down too far east. Other possibility is getting a southern stream wave to streak in a couple days later and prior to the cold high retreating off the NE coast

12z Euro control was a big hit next week over a portion of NE NC and SE VA

Long range on the 12 zeez wasn’t too kind. CMC Ens was the coldest, but less western ridging and not as cold on the GEFS and EPS. The western ridging is kind of a must have given the unrelenting +AO. The split flow and southern stream look remains though which is good

Harsh but fair i like the idea of the wave next week diving well south but question whether it will be far enough west. Need that trough in the NE Pac to quit impinging on our western ridge. The setup is close enough for now anyway. Maybe happy hour will throw us a bone

GFS is a convoluted mess at 500mb, but that’s the cold high pressure we obviously need to hook up with

That’s the best looking surface high over the Midwest I’ve seen on a model run in a long time (00z GFS early next week)

#3 is beautiful for example (from 18z GEFS Members). Some other hits in there

It's kind of funny that folks have been talking about the lack of +AAM causing it to be warm, then now, there is talk of us getting too much +AAM with a warm result as well. So with the +AAM and MJO circuit thru 7-8-1, we should expect to see the Pacific jet extend, leading to a tendency of seeing an Aleutian / North Pac Low with western ridging and split flow (ideal)...but too much +AAM / too strong MJO and you get scenario 2 I mentioned earlier where the jet extension / westerly flow is too strong and the western ridging gets broken down and doesn't sustain itself (cool at times, but not cold enough)