griteater

00z Canada is pretty warm initially into NC, but it ends up hitting the eastern 1/2 of the state or so pretty hard with snow. Sfc low is initially closer to the coast before tracking out to sea

On the crude, early UKMet 500mb maps, it looks similar from previous runs to me. It looks either the same (suppressed with precip) or maybe ever so slightly north...only going by crude 500mb maps though

It will get there. Sadly, we can predict where the GFS is going better than it can

GFS Trend

GFS out to 81 has more precip across NC this run...nothing huge, but it bumped north with precip. Temps were similar, maybe just barely warmer

More robust precip is going to bring a greater threat of warm nosing (850mb low or trough tracking too far north across northern GA/SC)...you want to see a weaker system with a more diffuse 850mb low with still the possiblity of the precip being noteworthy

So I wanted to make a few comments about the location of the surface high. As Eric Webb astutely noted in his composite posted on a previous page, the climo location for the surface high during Miller A storms is over the midwest (Iowa, etc.). Ideally, we would have dual surface highs...one to our north and another to our northwest. But there's more to it than just the position and strength of the surface high. Here's a comparison of this week's storm to the Jan 3, 2002 storm.....the surface high is located in a similar position. Also, the source region for the cold air coming out of Canada is good in both images...it's actually colder for our storm this week. However, look across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico where we have a much stronger subtropical ridge in place. This ridge is offering a much stronger resistance in terms of allowing the cold air to sink south out of the high. Accordingly, note how the heights are lower over the Carolinas during the Jan 2002 storm (558 dam in 2002 vs. 567 this week). Everything else equal, heights = temperatures aloft. Lower heights support lower temperatures aloft. On the flip side, the tighter temperature gradient this week, could allow for a fantastic clash as warm, moist air collides with the cold air that is sinking south from the mid-atlantic (= heavy frontogenesis and potential for heavy, banded precip).

It should, and if you live here the rest of your life, it will scare you until you are in your grave Sfc low track is excellent. 850 low track is a little north of ideal for us...but it worked out there

So far, the precip looks very uniform on the NAM which is nice to see. I've seen it in recent years actually not be as heavy with precip as it's reputation would suggest. At any rate, I think the globals are too light with precip

Mac - 543 is a better 1st guess in this part of the country than 540 (i.e. half way in between the 540 and 546 lines)...but soundings are the way to go to assess precip type

This run of the NAM pretty much matches the track and precip footprint of the GFS/Euro, but it's simply much heavier with the precip on the north side owning to potentially resolving the higher resolution dynamics at play (heavy frontogenesis). Maybe the NAM is too heavy with the precip and maybe the globals are too light

It is

Didn't mean it was a bad run, ha....colder is better in my book...and it's plenty wet across NC...just not as amped as the last run

Yes, out to 66 the NAM is a colder and not as far north with the precip

One thing - though none of the snowmaps are perfect, the Trop Tidbit snow maps that have sleet included give a way overinflated view - I wouldn’t recommend posting those in particular

FYI a new thread was started for our blizzard late in the week Now go look at the end of the 12z GFS where it has our next storm to kick off March - pattern actually ain’t too bad then

burrel - I have a hard time buying a precip minimum just southeast of the Apps and a jump to the coast with this one. Just my opinion. I know we see that sometimes, but the trajectory of the precip and forcing is going to be more west to east in a continuous manner. The precip minimum and jump to the coast is more common when we have a wave approaching and crossing the Apps from a NW trajectory. Sure the eastern areas may get a precip boost, but I don't think a jump to the coast is in the offing here.

It's a package deal Mack - precip north / cold air north. You and I went from being right were we want to be with the 12z NAM, to yikes, too amped with the 18z. Great for the folks north of us though. Let's see what happens going forward. Need the big high pressure to come thru

12km NAM Sleet

12km NAM

On the NAM, the shortwave over the Great Lakes bumped north, allowing the storm and precip to climb north

NAM is amped

Reminds me of the heavy snow rates in Chattanooga with the last storm

Euro Ensemble Members

I mean, it depends on where your expectations are. Yes, I think a light to moderate event with some surprises is possible....it all has to come together though. Still 3 days out. The Euro has trended better at 500mb. At a timeframe of Wed aftn, the western ridge is taller...the wave out west is has trended west...and the flow across the south is better....all good trends. Then by Thursday morning, the wave over the Great Lakes that is acting to keep everything suppressed to the south has trended farther north - again, good trend for precip to climb north as long as temps work out.