griteater
-
Posts
9,614 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by griteater
-
GFS isn't going to move north this run
-
GFS out to hr39 is pretty much identical to the last run at 500mb
-
00z ICON did not climb north FWIW
-
18z Euro Ens Mean precip bumped north like the Op run
-
This storm is just taylor made for ECU Pirate country in Greenville. Perfect track and dynamics will be increasing the farther east you go as the storm matures
-
Yeah the 18z Euro and GEFS Mean both bumped north with precip
-
Agree. It comes down to precip rates and how shallow the near surface warm layer is. In this case the GFS and NAM yield good rates and the warm layer is very shallow (in this area) so I’d expect to see surface temps move 2-3 degrees lower than modeled. But look above, as warm nosing aloft is a separate problem. The Euro doesn’t have the precip rates
-
I’ve never since revered the Euro like I did before the Dec 2010 storm. Still like it and want it on my side, but It hasn’t been the same ever since for whatever reason
-
Correct on RGEM out to hr48, then it flips to the GEM Global after hr48....you can see the resolution change with the pixel size after hr48. Also, at the bottom, it has Forecast System R for RGEM out to hr48, then it flips to G for Global after hr48
-
These things almost always climb north right. The fly in the ointment here is that the UKMet and Euro are headstrong on being south...so that flys counter to maybe conventional wisdom
-
-
12km NAM Trend Loop
-
NAM Simulated Radar
-
PackGradwarmgroundtemps will love this run of the NAM
-
Out to hr36 on the NAM, I don't see any cause for concern with how this should evolve downstream with precip...let's see where it goes
-
15z SREF Mean QPF bumped north
-
The Euro is 0 for 5 in SE Winter Storm Model Battles
-
Euro out to 63...it's another weak and suppressed run
-
HREF Mean at the end of its run at hr48 (Thurs 7AM) HREF (High Resolution Ensemble Mean) Members
-
Ha obviously skimpy on snow but it did bump a little north with precip. No comparison to GFS and NAM though
-
Here's the 12z UKMet at hr48 at 500mb. Just comparing the trajectory of the height lines with the GFS, it matches up quite well. The UKMet has been super suppressed all along, but the map argues that precip will be north this run - precip will be out on Pivotal later
-
For all of its fallacies, I have a hard time seeing the GFS just collapse and look like the current Euro come go time based on how it is just consistently inching north....the Euro just has to come north with precip here soon. Not to mention the NAM is obviously north as well
-
Weathernerds site has it
-
Yeah looks like it will be another moist run on the NAM. It's quicker too...getting precip into the western upstate by 7AM Thurs.
-
I like the idea of this meeting in the middle with the model runs today and tomorrow. The NAM is too wet and the Euro is too dry.
