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griteater

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  1. griteater
    12z RDPS (RGEM)
  2. griteater
    In the old days, we would say the Euro is correct and the other models will move to it...but in the past 8 years or so, it hasn't been that way from what I've seen. Maybe the Euro is correct here, but time will tell.
  3. griteater
    Correct, when the trough for the storm is over Missouri on both models, the 50/50 low on the GFS is stronger and farther southwest compared to the Euro. That, and the other reasons given are at least part of the picture for why there is a more amplified, warmer, solution on the Euro (sfc low farther NW).
  4. griteater
    This is the biggest difference I see aloft between the GFS and Euro. First off, the timestamps are different here in the comparison (hr78 for GFS and hr81 for Euro), but I'm wanting to compare the features for when the trough axis is in the same location, in this case, centered through Missouri. The trough on the Euro is sharper with more amplitude, and the GFS has more positive tilt as it extends down thru Texas. Also, the 50/50 low on the GFS is stronger. Note the difference between the 2 models with the height lines over NY and PA. The height lines are farther north on the Euro which equates to a more tucked, warmer solution. Every little bit of difference counts.
  5. griteater
    In the old days, we would say that the Euro is correct, and the other models would trend to it...but it hasn't been that way really in the past 10 years. We will see in the end.
  6. griteater
    Euro bumped warmer again. It was a tick north with the 50/50 low. Looking at the 12z Wed on Pivotal, the temperatures from coldest to warmest are Canadian > NAM/GFS > UKMet > Euro Yeah, Miller B's are notorious for having phantom precip holes pop up on radar as the precip moves thru. Also, with this one, the precip is basically forming on top of us or just to our west in the TN Valley...as opposed to moving east out of Texas. On the other hand, this is a healthy wave and it's not moving at a fast pace
  7. griteater
    As a ballpark for this storm, I'd maybe target reducing the amount of precip by half for determining ice accretion. So, if you get 0.5 liquid of freezing rain, ice accretion is roughly 0.25. A case of colder temperatures pre-storm and during the storm would increase the ratio.
  8. griteater
  9. griteater
    GFS is a touch colder this run
  10. griteater
    Yeah it's the same...RDPS is new name. Thanks.
  11. griteater
    Where do you get the RGEM out quickly - is it straight from Environ Canada site?
  12. griteater
    Slides below on this topic from Wes Junker (we're obviously looking way out at the end of the run, but I still think it's beneficial to see what the soundings look like)
  13. griteater
    Big warm nose here at Hickory of +5.0C at 800mb. Says sleet, but this would be freezing rain. Sleet to the west.
  14. griteater
    NAM Temperature and Dewpoint at 7AM Wed
  15. griteater
    NAM was a touch better with the 50/50 low this run. Here's the 12km precip type on the last frame Wed morning at 7AM
  16. griteater
    The -AO/-NAO are helping here, but for our region, ideally those reds over Greenland (positive anomalies) would be farther S/SW
  17. griteater
    Thoughts from GSP NWS .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM Saturday...The latest op models depict another dynamic system will affect the fcst area Tue night into Wed. A coupled jet will develop across the the Deep South late Tue and create very good upper div, while a stg h5 trof develops a broad and highly moist sfc low progged to cross the area thru the day Wed. Ahead of this system, a developing classical CAD looks to be in place as a 1035 mb sfc high is maintained across se/rn Canada. This pattern will potentially set the stage for wintry mix precip generally along and north of the I-85 corridor beginning aft 00z Wed. As WAA flow increases abv 2 kft, a warm nose will work north and melt the snow thru a deep layer as seen up to 8 kft on the latest soundings. With the sfc layer remaining cold and reinforced with cooler td/s, the rain is anticipated to change over to -fzra then eventually a sleet mix after 08z while sfc temps drop to sub-freezing wet bulbs east of I-26 and north of I-85. Ice accums look low-end currently as the system will be relatively short lived and the -fzra shud mix with -ra early on. Across the NC mtns and higher elevations of the Upstate and NE GA, snow will be the main p-type, where a few inches are possible across the srn escarpment and lower totals to the north. A lot can change with this system and the fcst will be adjusted over the next few days. One to keep an eye on.
  18. griteater
    Sounds about right, but we'll see how this trends going forward. In terms of the modeling, the CMC is good at getting early hints at CAD, but it's typically too cold. Euro is probably a little too warm. The high res models will be on the colder side I'm sure. 50/50 low needs to escape to the NE slower to see this get colder
  19. griteater
    FYI, a thread was started for Wednesday - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54172-ice-time-dec-16ish-possible-cad-event/
  20. griteater
    Watching the ensemble trends, my take is that the changes going forward at h5 will be subtle. One reason for this is that the main features are large in scale (i.e. the 50/50 low and the large wave traversing the country). Now it comes down to seeing how far southwest the CAD will setup.
  21. griteater
    12z Canadian
  22. griteater
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  24. griteater
  25. griteater
    True, it's probably missing on the fine details, but gives the big picture view
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