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griteater

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  1. griteater
  2. griteater
    The most anticipated GFS run of year 2020 incoming
  3. griteater
    3km NAM with a slow warming trend. This is for 7AM tomorrow. Last image in the loop is from tonight's 00z run.
  4. griteater
    I think it's possible you see a little snow, yes...then sleet, then frz rain. I've never been a big fan of the HRRR. It's usually a furnace toward the latter part of its run. And here on this loop, it just doesn't look realistic with this thin transition from snow to rain in a CAD setup. It just tends to be inaccurate toward the end of its run, but it only goes out to 18 hours....so, that doesn't give you much lead time for it to be of much use in winter. Guess it is meant to be used in nowcast time...but hey, I can just look at the radar then. Good luck up there.
  5. griteater
    I think a combo of the hi-res NAM and GFS here looks reasonable. I believe the RDPS will be a little too cold. The sneaky factor here will be the prime setup of maximizing the coldest part of the day for when the precip gets going.
  6. griteater
    Low forming off Jacksonville, FL. A few more hours of clear skies for I-40 and north. As previously mentioned, the time of day aspect with this one is about as good as it gets with precip moving in overnight into early morning.
  7. griteater
    I miss a good ice storm from the 80's. You'd go to school with a forecast of rain and 38, and you'd get sent home mid-morning with rain and 28. Models and forecasters didn't have a dam clue on how to handle cold air damming.
  8. griteater
    ^ Aggressive warm nose - put that on the list of wording you never want to hear
  9. griteater
    Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1057 AM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1035 AM Tuesday: Strong isentropic lift will spread across the region, and tap into Gulf and Atlantic moisture, producing a low cloud deck over the forecast area this evening. Precip onset looks delayed a bit from previous runs in the Guidance, with light precip not starting until after 06z tonight. Temps will be able to fall well into the 30s, and below freezing in much of the mountains as the precip starts, and wet-bulb to freezing along the I-40 corridor of the NC Piedmont. Forecast soundings show an aggressive warm nose punching in thanks to strong WAA. Still could see snow and sleet at the onset in the northern and central NC mountains, but transitioning to sleet and freezing rain by 12z Wed. Sfc temps are always tricky, and the CAD will help bring temps to right around 32 deg all the way to the I-85 corridor from Greenville to Charlotte around sunrise. However, it`s very marginal, and should quickly return to the mid 30s by mid-morning, as warm nose becomes very strong and CAD weakens. As for QPF, not much change from previous forecast. Still looking like bulk of precip will occur after 12z Wed, which may limit ice accums.
  10. griteater
    Going up there this weekend. I’ll tell them to ‘get ready’
  11. griteater
    Today's Euro Weekly Control Run (Jan 2 - Jan 29)
  12. griteater
    Yesterday's GEFS Extended Control Run (Dec 26 - Jan 17)
  13. griteater
    National Weather Service is going with snow/sleet 2-4 inches for Roanoke at the moment
  14. griteater
    Quick look at Roanoke, I'm thinking dusting / light accumulations of sleet and 0.15 to 0.20 of freezing rain
  15. griteater
    Warmer trend on 1km NAM. This is trend for 11AM Wed
  16. griteater
    Ha, yeah it won't mean anything until we see it show up close in Hard to believe these AO charts given what we've seen in the past 7 years or so.
  17. griteater
    This is going to work out pretty well (for once), though the vision I had for the storm threat (#3) was more of a west to east, moderate strength storm as opposed to a full-on nor'easter. Going forward, both Anthony Masiello (HM) and Isotherm are honking for January (these are 2 of the best out there for long range discussion): Anthony - https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1338312081926447117?s=20 Isotherm - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54035-my-winter-outlook-2020-21/?do=findComment&comment=5732631 Anthony is expecting an MJO orbit through phases 7-8-1-2 late Dec thru January - https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1337383148112449538?s=20 Here is what MJO Phase 8 looks like in early January on average - suppressed tropical convection in the Maritime Continent (orange/red/white colors), ridge over Alaska / Western Canada / Greenland, trough east of the Rockies:
  18. griteater
    Canadian RDPS Trend Loop for 10AM Wed. It has been quite consistent, but as typical, it is the coldest model. I suspect it is a little too cold. We will see
  19. griteater
    1km NAM Radar scours out the cold pretty quickly, but should be some light icing
  20. griteater
    Gotcha, yeah, true it is difficult to get the variables to all come together for a long duration freezing rain event from a big gulf low (like Dec 2002)
  21. griteater
    But on Pivotal, the QPF (liquid) and ZR QPF are essentially the same amounts...so, they are just showing you how much precip will fall as freezing rain as opposed to how much ice accretion will occur. I'd go with something like a 50% reduction for this storm given temperatures, warmth pre-storm, etc. 0.4 inches of liquid = 0.2 ice accretion. Pivotal has added ice accumulation maps using the FRAM estimate with a paid subscription (I don't have one) - https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/documents/10157/137122/FRAM_VLAB_Presentation.pdf/50ff7877-c52d-80f4-1413-b294db7710e9
  22. griteater
    Crapped out? What changed? Less snow/sleet at onset maybe in northern areas? Otherwise I don’t see where this has changed much
  23. griteater
    The details matter though. The 50-50 low / sfc high / storm wave / sfc low - all of those need to be farther south. Pre-storm cold isn’t deep and expansive. It’s far from perfect, but our day in the sun (snow) will come, some day / some year
  24. griteater
    Precip timing is kind of perfect, beginning overnight into early morning - has that going for it
  25. griteater
    12z GFS
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