griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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GFS ends up being a little weaker with the wave this run and precip shield doesn't look like it's going to get up into VA...and a lot warmer than NAM and RGEM
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Out to hr48 on the GFS and the heights with the wave are a little south thru TX and the heights off VA are pressing down south a little more...that kind of combo says it's likely to be like the last run or a little south...we shall see
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The NAM and RGEM were similar with temps / precip types, but the RGEM was a little north of the NAM with the 850/500mb low tracks
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Last thing I’d be worried about if I were you would be this missing to your south anyway
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I disagree with the disagree , no negative tilt on that NAM run
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Out to hr60, NAM looks a little south but it’s also a little more amplified on its east side, so it may be a wash
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18z Euro is slightly north/warmer. Snow confined to the mtns at the end at hr90 Fri morning
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^ Yeah guys you can click on a sounding were the precip is heavy and it will have 32 deg at the surface while areas to the north of it in light snow are like 34. Models are showing it and it matches with ground truth as we’ve seen in some prior storms with closed upper lows
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Interesting that the UKMet is this wet...as it normally is on the conservative side with QPF
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18z GFS goes mini-boom with classic MIller A crossing N FL early next week (Monday)...busy in here
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Bump north on the GFS v16 this run
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Impressive look developing at the end on the EPS Mean here with heavy west based -NAO via Davis Strait ridging and deep blues off the Canadian Maritimes / and removal of Gulf of Alaska Low (Jan 12-19)
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Yep, here is 850 low and Sfc on EPS Mean
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Meltdowns are fun!
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Bump south with the wave here on the 12z Euro Ens Mean (trend loop of last 2 runs)
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12z Euro is a hit again early next week with the 2nd storm from central LA to W NC
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^ Had to fix the image on the 850 low
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Here is the 850 low and temperatures. Warmth wins the battle on this run in E NC. For S VA, it's a matter of the 50/50 low and it's associated appendages pressing down into the Mid-Atlantic coast that forces the wave to slide west to east. Where do we go from here though? Don't think we are going to see much in the way of more southward movement with the track and these things almost always tick north closer to game time, so
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Just a slow crawling west to east slider on the Euro
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Out to hr84, Euro is just a touch south / touch weaker with the wave compared to 06z run
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CMC is a slow mover...24hr snow from the storm in the mountains, then a little upslope. Wave track was a little wacky...ArkLaTex to Nashville, then due east to Cape Hatteras
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Well let's hope the GFS has improved with their newer version lol
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12z GFS v16
