griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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18z NAM out to hr24 is a little stronger with the wave and a touch north with the heights along the mid-atlantic and carolina coast...suggests this will be a touch north with precip from last run
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We can ignore the part about the v16 only being run once a day as it is now available on sites 4 times a day. Anyway, for those who don't know, Philippe used to post in here out of Greenville, SC as @phil882 and he is now a forecaster at the National Hurricane Center https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1339608830007799810?s=20
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You have to ignore that lol It's a function of it being 1pm and it's averaging out all members. Yeah, ideally, the 32 line is in Jacksonville and everything else is the same lol, but not going to be that way. 850 zero is Fayetteville to Montgomery
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1km NAM at the end of its run
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Don't think we can say either way about the phasing, other than just guessing at this stage, but the EPS has a good look right now. GEFS and GEPS look decent, but not quite as good
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18z Euro Ens Mean at the end of its run at hr144...another threatening run
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Most likely the model sees moisture there, but doesn't have the vertical lift to produce precipitation...say up into central VA...at least for now
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18z RGEM
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18z RGEM
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NAM looks a little north with the wave, but south with the 50/50 low, and the wave is getting weakened. I'm a fan of the NAM model, even at range, but it can be jumpy obviously given that it is high resolution...I would be surprised if we move toward this kind of heavily sheared out, weakened wave look, but you never know
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Euro Ens Mean looks about perfect to me for western areas for a week away...solid looking storm that is tracking south of you (likely to adjust north)...32 deg line on the mean thru CLT....of course, this is one model
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From 12z Models for Mon-Tue: GFS Para/CMC/UKMet: drop northern stream wave on top of, or in front of, southern stream wave...storm is weaker/more suppressed GFS/Euro: drop northern stream wave into the backside of the southern wave...storm goes boom (GFS is a little later)
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More Euro Ens Mean images for early next week
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Bump south on this run of the 12z Euro Ens Mean...heights with the storm wave over MS/AL, heights thru Florida, and heights with the 50/50 low all bumped south
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Euro has a Jan ‘87 look to it
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Euro about to go boom for western areas. Deep phasing trough
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It was worse in the 90’s. We’re lucky to be having any threats at all right now. Pattern should get colder over next 2 weeks
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It’s subtle, but the CMC is a little farther north with the track of the wave and vort max compared to the GFS brothers
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GFS/GFSv16/CMC tonight all have the gulf low winter storm for parts of our forum on Monday...it was also on the 12z Euro and the Ensemble Means generally have the look as well
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Yeah, there is a northern stream wave moving down thru the Great Lakes that is dropping down right on top and just ahead of the southern wave....so, that is shearing it out a bit, but also keeping in suppressed
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GFS v16 Snowfall Trend Loop
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GFS v16 looks similar to previous run. It's stronger with the wave than the GFS reg...bowling ball closed low running west to east thru TN...farther north than NAM track
