griteater

It looks like SV is saying - if sfc temp is below freezing, count it as snow (even if temps aloft are above freezing). Poor algorithm it seems

CMC is stronger with early week wave - it is wintry in Mid Atl, then weaker and north with wave 2 Formula for it to possibly work out for us is weak wave 1 in early week, then stronger with wave 2 late week, with big ridge behind it and big 50/50 low in front of it to keep it south

Pretty much the same h5 evolution on this run of the para, but the storm is weaker (but some snow or mix down into SC) Reg GFS also went in the same direction at h5 (500mb), but the storm is very weak and goes ‘poof’ as Burger used to say Good trends overall though on wave track being farther south

Yes, same. Current GFS version is 15. Next version is 16 which is run in parallel (para) to the current version but comes out 15-20 min later

18z Para was a beauty at 500mb for next Wed/Thu. That’s our best shot at something working out with the ridge going up behind the wave...and confluent flow held the whole time over PA/NY as the wave tracked across the country - not allowing the wave to climb north

Yeah we’re not far off in the mid and extended range. One thing to watch for is to see if the pattern can become more suppressed than currently shown - sometimes that happens on the modeling in the bigger -NAO’s like this

For winter storms, maybe something in between these 2. 1st image is the top 20 -AO + -NAO days on record for Dec-Feb - it has a nice Aleutian Low anomaly and weak western ridging...2nd image is the late Jan to early Mar pattern in 2010 For cold, here are the patterns for the top 10 coldest Dec / Jan months (I think I did these for top cold in Charlotte):

Here is the GEFS from days 4 to 16. It's hard to ask for much more from the AO/NAO. Ridge climbs up into Greenland and retrogrades west, then southwest which moves the storm track south in the eastern U.S. there toward the end of the loop. Meanwhile, there is some cross-polar flow that sends cold air down into W Canada. Ultimately, the Pacific pattern kind of blows as a trough sinks into the Pacific Northwest...it's the going theme this winter of bad North Pacific pattern vs. good North Atlantic pattern (at times). This go around, we'll have more cold air to work with as seen in the 2nd loop, as the bad Pacific pattern is a big ridge in the central North Pacific (colder air to our NW) as opposed to a big low in Alaska and Gulf of Alaska (warmer air to our NW). We can score in this pattern, but the Atlantic side pattern will need to flex its muscles and force the storm track south, not far fetched if we do indeed get a healthy -NAO.

Well, you bring up a fair point about the Control run as you aren't going to find that on TT. We're all on here to have a little fun. Some venture more into the why behind the snow, while others mostly just want to see it snow....both are fine, but ultimately, I think we should all strive to be contributors in some way, shape, or form, and not a distraction. No worries.

So BullCity is the ultimate weenie? OK. In what way exactly? Also, your next point about posting timelines - I mean, you always have the option to go take a look at the model for yourself, tropicaltidbits.com. This kind of fits in to a life rule of mine that nice gestures should always be appreciated, and never expected. So, no need to expect to be spoon fed with model output in here

The 18z Para basically has the same setup as the Euro for mid next week, though it's a bit north and warmer (snow in W NC into W VA)...no biggie on the difference there. Over the last few weeks, the Pacific pattern has been pretty bad with low anomalies in Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska. That has flooded Canada and the northern U.S. with warmth. Today is the final day of that pattern. The Pacific jet will begin to retract and slow down, and a ridge develops just off the west coast, then retrogrades all the way out to the Aleutian Islands (per model ensembles). Our best setup for the foreseeable future looks like it will indeed be next week as the pattern will feature a maturing -NAO along with western ridging that is in a favorable location off the west coast (favorable only because of the -NAO). The Euro has the setup to look for of a wave toppling the western ridging and diving down into Northern Mexico, before moving E or ENE underneath a cutoff low over the Northeast, which is underneath a maturing Greenland ridge. Here's the 5 day mean for Mon-Sat next week on the 18z GEFS After next week, the ensembles want to send us into a 'Snowfall in Seattle' pattern with ridging out in the Aleutians and troughing along the west coast (though the -AO/-NAO remains). The tropical forcing / enhanced tropical convection hasn't done us any favors thus far this winter and is at least part of the reason for why the Pacific pattern hasn't been better. The hope was that the enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and Indonesia would die down as we go into late January, but that does not appear to be the case. You can see here the signal for enhanced convection there in the blue colors. This is typical of La Nina climatology. Having said that, it is rare to not see an MJO circuit thru the more favorable phases (7-8-1-2) at some point during the winter, even during La Nina...maybe we get one of those circuits in Feb? Prior to that, the Alaska ridging and -AO/-NAO (if real) could keep us in the hunt as it will be much colder to our north and northwest than we've seen thus far this winter.

Ha, where is it off? Tough event to map I'm sure with the localized totals

Forecast Verification (I used the accumulation maps from Eric Webb for verification):

3 inches and steady snow here in Boone on a road trip. Almost no wind

Steady snow in Boone. Heavy dusting. Cars topped with snow

Drove up to Boone with the 2 kids. Will ski tomorrow at Sugar. Flurries and 32 degrees

Final call

12z Euro

12z Euro

12z Euro

UKMet total precip

UKMet looks like a good compromise to me in terms of how the precip will progress...it's kind of in between the more north Canadian modeling (CMC/RGEM) and the farther south American modeling (GFS/NAM) from the 12z runs. You see the trailing batch of precip associated with the closed upper low roll thru west to east across NC at the end. Challenge is figuring out the precip type / precip type changeover, then how much will accumulate based on rates, snow ratio, and surface temps.

3km NAM is probably being a little over zealous, but this would put down some high snowfall rates in the Triad...strong vertical motion in the dendrite growth zone...and steep lapse rates in the DGZ on some soundings up in that area

1km NAM from 9PM Thu to 6PM Fri