griteater

Exactly what I was thinking

I have a hard time believing that the GFS is dead right and the Euro/UKMet are wrong. Maybe you take a blend. Either way, it’s still no better than a ‘maybe it could work out’ for parts of our forum

Yep, it's kind of like the UKMet - farther south, but too weak to cool the column for much in the way of snow

Out to hr123 on the Euro and the wave is coming in a little quicker thru OK compared to the GFS...it should end up a little south of the GFS in the end

It's stuck at hr105 on the 01/21 06z run

h5 vort max track... GFS: S NM > OK City > NW TN > S NC UKMet: S NM > Red River > N Bama > N SC So, a farther south track on the UKMet. Also, the ridging is a little stronger behind the wave up into SW Canada on the UKMet and GFS is about a 1/2 day slower with the wave so the 50/50 low over the Canadian Maritimes is having less influence on it compared to the UKMet with respect to the wave digging ESE into the Carolinas The Euro awaits

In fairness, the Euro/EPS has been trending more toward the GFS/GEFS with the western ridging and h5 wave/vort track over the past 24 hours (the GFS/GEFS are like, "welcome to the party")....but who knows where we go from here

Here is the noted trend on the EPS

Every little bit helps in marginal temperature setups. On the flip side, the system overall is coming in a little quicker on the modeling. A little slower would be better to get more of the damming high and more low level cold air in place on the front side of the storm. As currently modeled, it's another one of these mix or rain to snow type setups for many east of the mtns as the lowest levels are the last to cool (this would be the 3rd straight storm like that if it goes down that way - the one earlier this winter, and the one in Feb last winter). On a positive note, there has been some trending toward more western ridging and a more southerly track of the upper wave and associated sfc lows. That has to continue in order to even keep us in the game here. Long way out as you mention.

00z GFS Ens Members. Some hit parts of our forum, some hit north, a few weak

UKMet looks closer to the GFS than the CMC. It is warmer than the GFS at 850mb. After hr144 here, the storm wave over W TN/KY would be moving ESE

Yeah, GFS and Icon were about as good as we can hope for in this setup with the wave pass. CMC is the 'nightmare' scenario of the farther north wave track and the pesky closed upper low north of the Great Lakes (blue blob) which doesn't allow the damming high to build in. You can see the difference here between the 2 north of the Great Lakes

It’s been rough on the Pacific side this winter. We’ll have to see it to believe something is really going to change there. When I saw your image I was thinking of March and April. If it isn’t going to be cold and wintry in March, above normal is really nice then and in April

Well you make a good point

Above normal in spring is quite nice actually...just not in summer

Coming back to this. Correct, the strong high is there north of the Great Lakes with a good damming signature....but the second part of the equation is what you mentioned, that is, the pre-storm air mass from Eastern Canada to Florida just isn't very cold. In the bottom right panel (850mb temps), the blue line across NY State is -10C...we'd like to see that across OH/PA, and we'd like to see -20C just north of NY State (pink line which is up in NW Canada). Also note the +10C is in C GA...so yeah, that's not as cold as we'd like to see it prior to the storm rolling in. The less than optimal Pacific side pattern so far this winter is mostly to blame I'd say for the lack of cold across North America. But again, the placement of surface features (highs/lows) is only part of the equation when it comes to available cold.

Here was the 12z UKMet at hr144

Raises hand - I'm one of those that is wishy-washy / mood swingy with this one. Some model runs here and there are intriguing for sure, but on the flip side the wave track and sfc high setup to the north could easily far apart with just some slight changes. The Euro run last night was a mini-disaster, but has since improved some. And as @ILMRoss mentioned earlier today, the UKMet today looked pretty good at hr144. Here's the 18z GFS. Nice wave track and nice damming shown (though many need it further south for sure). Still hard to beat the 4-panel ewall images

Don’t see anything positive with the 12z runs thus far. CMC and GFS are running the wave more north. Icon had a good run with the wave (keeps it south) but lacks cold. Likely a tough battle to win here.

It was the best wave pass of any run I’ve seen from any model (AZ to N OK to TN), it just didn’t have the good, damming high pressure out in front. It looks like the para is stuck at hr105

Overnight Euro is playing as its old self, the sinister Dr. No as it tracks the wave from Arizona to SE Michigan which is no good and is a red flag in spite of some recent good GFS runs

Yes, we’re just in the ‘maybe this could happen’ stage

The storm wave is moving from the SW states into Missouri, then ESE into NC. It’s an odd setup but not unprecedented. That track makes sense with a -PNA / -NAO. We want to see the ridge go up quicker and stronger behind the wave to help it not gain as much latitude. With the surface high north of the Great Lakes, we just want to see that area around and north of the Great Lakes free of any short waves / closed lows - instead we want to see clean ridging building in there behind the departing early week storm and upstream of (behind) the 50/50 low complex off the Canadian Maritimes. The Para gave all of this a good effort

CMC is more like the reg GFS. Both of these are a little quicker bringing in the storm (1/2 day quicker) The Para is a full on winter storm with a better setup with the damming high. It doesn’t have the closed low there just north of the Great Lakes like the GFS reg which doesn’t allow the sfc high to build south quick enough

The pieces are there if everything can come together, but yeah, it’s no more than a “it could happen” kind of thing in my mind at this point. The setup has to support the wave staying suppressed, while at the same time, enough room to allow it to breathe and produce a storm, especially since it is hot on the tails of the early week storm. The setup to support the damming high looks pretty good, albeit more north than optimal