griteater

18z GFS Members for Super Bowl weekend...some hits in here

Super Bowl weekend to Daytona 500 weekend (ha), 2 storm chances during that period, that should be our realistic goal. Let the chips fall where they may. Doesn't look as good after that, but the long range modeled default of a SE ridge hasn't really materialized thus far thru winter

Out to hr 210, the Euro looks like the Jan 30, 2010 Miller A/B Hybrid storm

Euro out to hr180 looks like it’s setting up pretty nicely for mid next week. Let’s see where it goes

Euro coming in bigger with the Sunday storm for parts of the forum prior to the bigger cold plunge

GEFS Ensemble Members. Check out the one at the bottom right

12z Para at day 9 with a suppressed option

Ugly to see that for sure, but that's the time period of interest. Cold shot comes down and gets trapped a bit underneath the Greenland Blocking...hopefully after that we can see one or 2 legit chances emerge. The details on the various modeling will be murky for now

Lt Rain / Snow mix here in S Lake Norman

Cold shot behind a Lakes cutter, followed by a developing -NAO (which has been in the cards for a while now). That's a good start. Just have to see how the pattern evolves from here and whether we can find a storm. The models aren't going to have the details locked in from long range, obviously.

3km NAM has warmed for 5 straight runs. At this time yesterday, it had freezing rain down to the NC/SC state line Sun AM and now it is up close to the VA/NC state line. Wouldn’t bet against it either in a warming aloft scenario like this

Euro has around 5 hours of snow there in Mt. Airy...I think it will come in there with good rates, so should be a solid storm during that period

It looks like 4AM offers the best combo of precip moving in with good rates / and 850 & Sfc temps still hanging on up against the mtns

12z Euro

The 10 km RGEM (1st image) is colder on the southern edge compared to the high resolution version (2.5 km) The map footprint on the 2.5km is a little weird as there is no model data southwest of a line from Asheville to Calabash

You can get it here at Winter Weather > Surface Wet-Bulb Temp: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# Wet bulb freezing is currently across SC

1km NAM

Freezing Rain QPF and Accumulated Ice (FRAM Estimate) on 18z RGEM Freezing Rain Accumulation Model (FRAM) - a rough estimate of accretion thickness on elevated horizontal surfaces. This product predicts the ice-to-liquid ratio (ILR) empirically from a large climatology and is rather analogous to Kuchera for snowfall, except that wind speed and precipitation rate are also considered in addition to (wet bulb) temperature. Bear in mind ice accretion is even trickier than snowfall accumulation and varies widely by surface type, shape, exposure, and orientation, so we urge responsibility and context in using even FRAM for public-facing forecasts.

A thread was started for the Miller B this weekend: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54449-jan-31st-cad-event/

Likely just staying away unless it’s a noteworthy event is my guess

3km coming in a little colder and quicker with precip this run

The Euro run

My guess there is snow to sleet to frz rain (a little bit of all)...have to see how the temperatures trend going forward though

Well I'd have to lean away from the GFS against the others, but I don't know that the setup really is going to be all that different in the end. Where you are, it's probably mostly snow, then maybe some sleet as the cold will want to hang in there longer and the precip will be out of there before there is enough time to really scour it out...those are my thoughts on it

Here is the 850mb warm advection (in pink) generating the lift for precip on the GFS...it's the most reliable kind there is IMO...probably not super long in duration though, maybe 9 hours or so