griteater

For late next week, one key to the storm lies in what happens out west. The GFS moved toward dropping a trough along the West Canadian coast mid week, right at the time when we need ridging building in, and the storm is kicked out too soon before the cold high has a chance to move in. The new CMC has some ridging there instead, and has a storm along the coast next weekend...better timing, better result. Let's see what the Euro says

In some ways I liked this Euro run even better that that big GFS run, especially how it dug the initial southern stream wave down into Mexico and the entire height pattern sunk south across the lower 48...that would give us some wiggle room for keeping the low track to the south

My mother is from South GA (Tifton). We have to work hard for our snow in the lowlands around here

I've seen him post about this a few times, but Anthony M has this theory / observation about storm evolution during retrograding -NAO blocks....the first few storms track north (across New England) and feed into the developing block, then the next one or two storms are suppressed events when the block is retrograding (best potential across the South), with the finale being a traditional Mid-Atlantic to New England nor' easter as the block lifts out. The previous retrograding block episode that we just had went down that way. There was a storm across New England on Jan 26...then the Raleigh thundersnow storm on Jan 28, then the traditional nor'easter on Feb 1

Before I saw this clown map I was about to post that's one of the best modeled storms I've ever seen

GFS looks dam near beautiful next Sat on the happy hour GFS lol

Yes, this is the key move. The AO and NAO are doing their job. It's the western pattern that is once again letting us down (the going theme this winter) as we can see here on the trend loop (1st image) where the above normal height anomalies along the west coast of North America have trended west during the timeframe of early next week - this leads to the SE ridge flexing. This coincides with a period when the Pacific jet is retracting (2nd image...i.e. retracting Pacific jet = retrograding height pattern along the West Coast). The good news is that the models are showing the jet extending after this retraction days 4-12...this would move the western ridging back east into Western North America. We'll have to see how that plays out in reality 5-10 days from now, but the Pacific jet extending & retracting are the foundation for the EPO and PNA patterns.

Why do you waste your time in the 0-7 day range? Nothing fun ever happens then

Interestingly enough, at Charlotte, the 4 biggest snowstorms on record each occurred after Valentine's Day (1902, 1927, 2004, 1969)...and 7 of the top 10 since 1900 also occurred after V-Day

Think we can kind of just track this High Pressure that drops down as the -NAO retrogrades to see when our winter storm chances will go up. The temperature anomalies look good during this time. This is for Mon the 8th to Mon the 15th. This is on the GEFS. Hopefully we can see some model consensus and have it hold.

It looks like it's just a matter of the amplitude, location, and orientation of the ridge that goes up into Alaska. The UKMet has -32 deg F in Iowa at the end of its run at hr144

Think we just have to sit tight and wait it out / see where this goes

12z Euro Control for this weekend has the low tracking into E SC / E NC with a little snow or wintry mix at onset in NW portions of the forum. It has a light wintry event across N SC and most of NC (more in NE NC) on Thu the 11th, then a moderate wintry event across parts of TN/NGA/NW SC/W-C NC on Sun the 14th Here is EPS Member Snow for the full run thru Feb 17th:

No way to hide it, this is a promising look on the GFS Ensemble Mean. Blocking ridge goes up into Greenland...then as it retrogrades southwest into north-central Canada, the westerly flow picks up off the west coast and a split flow wave emerges into California and the 4 corners, and is poised to track west to east underneath the trapped, cold, tropospheric polar vortex lobe over SE Canada

Yep significant CAD storm with ice down into NE GA next Thurs

Or are you talking about the mid week system? Too many to track lol

Has a big storm late next week, but it ends up cutting (too warm)

CMC has two close calls / weak hits then a huge cold pattern settling in across the lower 48

CMC has a nearly identical look for Sat night

That’s a nice looking suppressed pattern on the GFS for Sunday. Low comes out of the NE Gulf but fails to throw precip back into the cold air

'79 was similar to the period we have coming up, -PNA / -NAO. I did some stats a few years ago and that winter had twice as much wintry precip in Charlotte compared to any other winter back to 1970 (combined snow and ice, not just snow alone). But yes, -PNA / -NAO (some -EPO as well) would be the way to get the full lower 48 cold. 1970 and 1977 were both +PNA with -AO / -NAO (Weak El Ninos)....we haven't had this type of pattern in our recent Weak El Ninos (climate change related??) Yeah that 60's to 70's period simply had some cold patterns in a colder era. Climate change may have some affect on how common it is these days for those types of patterns to setup

The core concept with the MJO that is of most interest to us deals with the location of enhanced convection (thunderstorm activity) in the tropics. In a nutshell, enhanced tropical convection from the Eastern Indian Ocean, across Indonesia, and into the Western Pacific is La Nina-like and tends to favor +EPO and -PNA patterns (this is MJO Phases 3-4-5-6). Enhanced tropical convection (or related upper level patterns) outside of those regions from the Central Pacific > Eastern Pacific > Atlantic is El Nino-like and tends to favor +PNA patterns (this is MJO Phases 7-8-1-2). The pattern associated with each MJO phase can vary some at different times of the winter. Currently, the convection in Indonesia and the Western Pacific has calmed down, so it's better than it has been, and may be why we are seeing the improved ridging in the NE Pacific and up thru Alaska, but I don't think we are going to see the MJO make a circuit thru the El Nino like phases (7-8-1-2) anytime soon based on what I see and read. Take a look at this blog article which gives a good summary about how the location of tropical convection affects weather patterns - https://blog.timesunion.com/weather/how-el-nino-influences-our-weather/1247/

Without a doubt. The hope is Miller A, but think Miller B is the bigger threat (if something does in fact work out)

Here are the 850mb temperature anomaly charts for Feb 4 to Feb 13 on the 18z GEFS. Nice move here of the ridge going up west of Greenland (warmth), then sagging south into Hudson Bay, adding suppression into the flow underneath, with the cold fanning out across the country. We will still need plenty of suppression added in the flow with the PNA being slightly negative. NAO index chart is impressive (bottom image).