griteater

Weak MJO amplitude combined with the low frequency El Nino uplift hanging out in the W Pacific should prevent robust low-level westerly wind anomalies and robust SST warmups from occurring in the Nino regions over the next few weeks

AI model from Dr. Ken Takahashi comparing eastern Pacific warming for 97-98 vs. 23-24 forecast...

SST Anomaly Loop from late March to mid June

GFS and Euro Weeklies do have westerly wind anomalies working into the dateline, so we're likely to see some warming over the coming weeks. However, the MJO forecast has low amplitude with no strongly negative SOI pressure pattern showing up in the forecast charts....so, this may cap the upcoming warming potential

Jan '73 - major ice storm in Atlanta, 5-10 inch snow across NC Feb '73 - 1-2 feet snow across central GA / SC / into SE NC

3.4 drop over the last 5 days

Latest UK Met Office OSTIA up to +1.09

Yep, strength is more important than base IMO, though both factor in. If weak, conus outcome is variable. If super, go with conus warmth. If mod or strong, base plays a larger role with west-based offering more wintry potential of course.

SST anomaly changes over the last 2 months (06/03/23 minus 04/03/23)

From @WorldClimateSvc

I’d have to track it down, but I saw a reference one day this week where one of these types of models was forecasting a peak of around +1.0 with this Nino. One thing you might do is try to contact the author of the paper (email) to see if they have current model data you can view.

ENSO 3.4 is up to +0.78 as of 05-31 on the UK Met Office OSTIA data "The Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis (OSTIA) system produces high resolution analysis and intercomparison products for the sea surface temperature (SST) of the global ocean from satellite and insitu data."

I was just wondering if he stated that in recent weeks cause it’s going to be a steep climb to get to something like that now

When / Where did Paul state that?

Yeah the early East Pac activity (warming) is pretty much moot without more downwelling kelvin waves and warming coming from the west

^ Yeah bluewave, the idea of trade winds being a red herring with ENSO is a red herring. Tropical pressure patterns lead tropical wind patterns, which lead warm & cool water movement (upwelling / downwelling), which leads low frequency Thunderstorm / Convection cell locations, which lead mid-latitude weather patterns. This El Nino development is definitely on the struggle bus at the moment

Good info @GaWx and @jconsor on this relative ONI (RONI) concept as I agree with the premise and what the index is attempting to accomplish given the rate of ongoing background SST warming. Here are winter pattern composites for the Moderate / Strong / Super Ninos based off of this RONI index. For designation, I averaged the 3 highest consecutive tri-monthly values during the SON to JFM period. Using those computed averages, I used Mod Nino (+1.00 to +1.49) / Strong Nino (+1.50 to +1.99) / Super Nino (+2.00 and higher). I also compared the pattern years against the appropriate climo period (i.e. "minus X years) Moderate El Ninos Strong El Ninos Super El Ninos

Yeah this is a bit perplexing in my view as the warm pool is hanging back to the west in the W Pac compared to years like 1997 and 2015 which already had warming move out toward the dateline (as Anthony M and others showed). On the other hand, the thermocline has flattened with the heavy warm anomalies in the east and is preconditioned at the moment for widespread warming across the Pacific basin if there is a significant westerly wind burst and downwelling kelvin wave (one is on the doorstep, but it remains to be seen how strong and impactful it is)

@MattHugo81 Matt!! It looks like your thoughts remain on track Jim @OHweather. The -VP is progressing east into Africa -> Indian Ocean, shown here on the 1-day JMA charts over the past week Here is the latest MJO Hovmoller A bit surprising to see projections of the -VP not getting bogged down in the Indian Ocean & Maritime Continent given La Nina, but the MJO speed through the Indian Ocean makes some sense given that we have a negative IOD with some cool SST anomalies there. We'll likely see a slow down in the West Pacific though based on the high octane water there and typical La Nina behavior At any rate, maybe we see something in the ballpark of these images from late Nov to mid-Dec (or at least a few ideas from these images)....6-7-8 MJO circuit Nothing on the forecast charts show a pattern for strong Strat PV weakening, but we also aren't seeing any signs of a strong +AO pattern developing in the troposphere....it's middle of the road between the 2 at the moment

My 12 yr old daughter is flying up with a friend and friend’s mother today to a gymnastics camp at Univ of New Hampshire. Driving over to Boston for a couple days late in the week. Y’all be good to her up there haha

I always thought the 500mb evolution was a bit different here as well with the way this 'jumps' fairly quickly from WV / W NC to the Cape before slowing down / closing off....as opposed to it doing this process quicker off the Delmarva without the jump (possibly a +NAO element there)

700mb low and frontogenesis (SPC Mesoanalysis)

Thanks psu, means a lot. Trend of last 4 runs of GFS Ext for Jan 25th

PSU - here's the distinction I would draw...that Dec-Feb composite of the Nina winters is an average across the 3 months and many winters, and i've seen your separate posts about how NInas fall into a couple different categories - those are informative. In this case, rather than stating "stock Nina", they way I should have worded it in the twitter post is something along the lines of "I believe we will see a return to an enhanced convective signal in the E Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent in February...and that type of forcing, combined with a well-coupled, and 2nd year Nina will favor either a -PNA or +EPO type pattern.” So, it's just part of the 30 day or so cycle of the tropical forcing and how it impacts the pattern as opposed to it being a "stock Nina" idea. Anyway, appreciate the kind words in here from you all on the tweets, etc. I enjoy the discussion. Good luck tomorrow, and I think we will have a chance to keep a good pattern thru the end of the month, during the coldest climo of winter…and yes, February is a long ways off

The 12z suite of Model Op and Ensemble Means was positive for colder ideas going into early-mid Jan. More consolidated Aleutian Low / more western North America ridging. Let's see where it goes in the coming days