The Waterboy

Thanks! Does the 18z keep the 2nd storm way south or did it come north closer to the GFS?

Their comments about the heaviest amounts in SW OK don’t match the 18z GFS at all. It’s actually the exact opposite. Lowest amounts were in that area.

Interesting that the GFS Kuchera ratios continue to be in the 15-18:1 range for storm 2.

I think we’re going to be good. 4+ inches looks pretty solid. Especially if one of the bands shifts SE just a few miles. The RAP has it just trying to get into Benton Co.

V16 continues to drop heavier amounts compared to the main run.

18z RDPS stayed pretty steady to 12z. Continues to slide the heavier bands just a tick SE especially if you compare the 06, 12, and 18z. 18z below...

Anyone have the WeatherBell 3km map? I want to compare it to Pivotal.

V16

^That’s an I-44 hammer! Awesome to see the models increasing again. Definitely been sampled by now so hopefully all future runs continue this way. Suck on that, Lucy!!!

Euro looks similar to the NAM which isn’t a great look. Takes the heaviest precip way south. Big hit for Central/Eastern AR. I guess the first wave is solid for OK. NWA is in a bit of a snow hole similar to the NAM. Still drops decent totals area wide.

One more. 03z RAP. Again, not too shabby.

Canadian is OK. 0.25 to 0.50 QPF’s.

Got it!!!! User error on my part. I was holding the picture not the white area.

00z Icon through storm 1. Both storms ^

Thanks! Are you copying those on a laptop or your phone?

V16 looks way better again. Can’t post the map for some reason. QPF slightly higher than “regular” GFS run. The few locations I spot checked have about 0.1 QPF more on the V16. Is the NWS moving to the new version very soon? Personally I would prefer to use that regardless of what it’s showing.

I8z Icon out to 120 with both storms.

18z ICON through storm 1. Not sure if this is 10:1 ratios or Kuchera.

I wasn’t suggesting this will happen. Just pointing out that the models haven’t tanked completely.

21z RAP goes out to 51 and looks solid. And is almost identical to the GFS at hr54. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2021021221&fh=51&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

Guys (and gals), We still are in play for 6-12+ for almost everybody in 2 storms. Yes, lots of room for error. We aren’t getting shutout though. Here’s some reassurance from the v16... https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_para&p=snku_acc&rh=2021021218&fh=216&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc=

V16 held steady minus the hole over NWA.

We haven’t really discussed the typically NW shift that often occurs 24-48 hours out. We’re right in that timeframe now. I know you KC folks want to see that! Thoughts anyone? Like many of you, I’m nervous since we’ve been watching this for days (but it feels like weeks!) and the models had huge totals that are now trickling downward some. The chances of this being a swing and a miss are extremely low. The GFS has been steady. The Euro looked solid. Canadian moved our direction. No need to panic (I’m talking to myself) on one run of the NAM that still wasn’t a total train wreck. If things hold steady we’ll be getting excited by this time tomorrow. Now, where is my brown paper bag before I hyperventilate!

We need that a little more NW and we’re golden! is the break in the action between he 60-66ish odd? And feasible? It is the NAM after hour 60 so grain of salt.

For some reason I can screenshot from Pivotal on my phone. Not sure if it doesn’t allow it or it’s user error. Here’s the link though. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2021021218&fh=48&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc=