The Waterboy

Caved might have been too strong of verbiage. I was just saying it ticked south some. Still a great look though.

00z NAM caved to the GFS/Euro and shifted back south a bit. Still a nice storm. The first 34 hours look great then it falls apart up north after that. Big hit again south of Fort Smith into South Central AR.

According to the snow ratio maps on Pivotal they would still be between 15-20:1 depending on the location.

18z GFS and v16 not near as far north with precip as the NAM was. For example, Wichita gets 7” on the NAM, 1” on the GFS. Dodge City 8” on NAM and 0 on the GFS.

I remeasured in multiple spots. Somewhere between 5 and 6” here. So hard to say for sure. My previous 6 1/2” has to be too high although I find multiple areas with that. So who knows.

Just measured again. 6.5” in Bentonville. Definitely not an official measurement. But I found quite a few spots at that depth.

Little Rock 3am discussion mentions 20:1 ratios here. Observed snow:liquid ratios by midnight have ranged from 10:1 to nearly 20:1 across the central into NWRN AR...with a bit lower ratios further south due to the added sleet.

5” measured about an hour ago. Maybe this last burst will push us to 6. We’ll see.

Looks like we’re about to get a heavier band for the next hour or so.

Measure 5” In multiple spots of the year.

Awesome storm overall! Even if it didn’t drop huge amounts (8-12+) it was impressive for a few reasons: 1. Snow falling with it absolutely stupid cold. So much for the old saying, “It’s too cold to snow”. 2. Three different waves hit most of us. 3. As far as I can remember I’ve never been in a WS Warning while also having a WS Watch for another storm right behind it. This is VERY rare. The only “negatives” I can think of are we didn’t get a foot and no blizzard warning. That 8 year drought will continue, but who cares. Onto the next storm. As JoMo (or someone) mentioned yesterday the NAM and RAP seemed to handle this best. The HRRR not so much. We’ll see what round 2 (or is it round 4?) says.

Better late than never! Let’s get this going!!!

I know it’s jumping ahead but the 21z RAP has storm 2 further north. Looks good for most of us. Plenty of time to worry about that later but interesting to watch since the RAP has performed well so far.

In not loving the current look of the radar as it moves our way. As JoMo said, it’s narrowing and potentially weakening some. It’s going to be hard to see 4-6” more unless it wraps up and we see more on the very backside as well.

Using the Kuchera maps the 18z RAP, HRRR, and NAM all continue to show 3-8” additional through tomorrow.

Anyone have any live updates from the OKC area?

^ I suspect we’re all too focused waiting anxiously on round 2 today. But good to see those maps. Looks like storm 2 continues to track a bit more SE each run.

Last few HRRR runs hinting at wrapping the storm. Still snowing at 6 am tomorrow.

I really wasn’t expecting much out of this first wave. The HRRR runs last night had these bands further west. So I’m considering this first part some bonus snow. Around an inch here so far but hard to tell for sure.

Does the 12z GFS try to wrap it as well? Hard for me to tell.

This is a perfect day!!!! NWS Tulsa increased amounts for us NWA folks just a bit. 5-9” for Bentonville in the written forecast details.

That update is from 4:12 this afternoon. All they updated at 10:59 was the aviation.

03z RAP

These radar returns in SW OK and Tulsa are very intriguing. That is at least 4-5 hours ahead of what the HRRR is showing.

^ That’s a good thing, correct? It also seems to be a tick SE again.