The Waterboy

It was nice to see snow in November. Temps needed to be a few degrees colder (good call JoMo). But not a bad start. We need the Thursday storm to shift NW by a couple hundred miles. STL may get whacked per the 12z Euro. Any chance of a shift with it coming up out of the gulf/ArkLaTex area?

And so it begins. Jeez... Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 927 PM CST Sun Nov 11 2018 ...UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... Precipitation continues to expand from eastern NM through the TX Panhandle and extending across southern KS. A notable uptick in precipitation intensity has been observed across the TX Panhandle with recent reports of thundersnow, and this band of associated forcing will begin to extend eastward overnight with an expected increase in precip into NE OK late tonight. Additionally, the widespread ongoing convection over E TX will gradually lift northward into SE OK later tonight before spreading more east of the forecast area early Monday. Regarding the winter weather potential, the recent operational HRRR runs have verified well with the sfc freezing line, where as the recent 00z NAM showed considerable error across western KS with its 3HR fcst. This trend will be closely followed as the aforementioned NAM run is more aggressive with the freezing line south of I-44 during the the period of strongest lift around mid morning Monday. Also, data trends have been more northward with the mid level dry intrusion which, if verified, would quickly limit the snow potential southeast of Interstate 44 during the day Monday. In typical fashion, Southern Plains winter event are seldom straight forward. The updated forecast will adjust for precip coverage trends through the early morning hours otherwise the overnight forecast remains on track.

00z NAM looks very similar to 18z. Heaviest band in SW MO/NW AR.

One other thing I left out. Last November snow in Fayetteville was 1996 so we can break a 22 year drought.

Here’s is my 2 cents based on 43 years of history living in this area. Nothing earth-shattering here but thought I’d weigh in since you asked. First, some facts: 1. November snowfall in NWAR is very unusual. Since 1949, when NWS started keeping records, measureable snow has fallen only 13 times. 2. 2.0 inches on Monday would put Fay in the top 7 snowiest Nov’s on record. 4 inches would be top 3. Number one is 8 inches back in 1976 so that record should be safe. Historically, our better snowfalls (2+ inches) come in a setup such as this one. Storm track is solid (for now), airmass isn’t super shallow where fz rain is the primary precip type, although thermal profiles are iffy the further south you go, and QPF is decent (0.2-0.4). NWS SGF disco does have some concern over fz drizzle which would suck. It also doesn’t appear like this is cold air chasing precip which is often a problem (cold rain). Models do often tend to underestimate the cold air and how quickly it pushes in. We have continued to see most models uptick in amounts the last 36-48 hours. The ‘ol fly in the ointment is that the storm arrives during the daytime hours. At least we’ll get to see it falling but that may cut down on totals some. Finally, where banding sets up is also a key factor. I would not be surprised to see some area between NE OK, NWAR, SW MO pick up 4 inches. I have had a new snow shovel for 2+ years now and I’ve still not gotten to use it. I finally took the plastic wrap off of it hoping that was the good luck charm we needed. We shall see! WB

00z NAM looks great for what it’s worth.

12z Canadian for the win again. Looks like a trend!

Looks like the 12z CMC has this as well. And the 06z FV3 to a lesser degree. Maybe something to watch. Im sure you’ll update us again after the 12z Euro.

I almost posted that same thing yesterday! Perfect storm track with post frontal precip. Hopefully Heady’s pattern is legit and that comes back around in 45-60 days.

Pretty crazy. The FV3 GFS has been showing that since yesterday. Hold your breath...

Raindance, Can you clarify what you mean by “pretty severe”. Are you talking about in terms of cold/snow or severe thunderstorms?

I have zero confidence that any of these storms coming from the NW actually materialize. We've seen quite a few of these 5-7 days out and then they vanish. Surely we hit one at some point, right?

Totally agree with your assessment regarding March. I've been in this area a long time and some of the more memorable storms have been in early/mid March. The difference is the snow doesn't usually stick around as long. Temps usually warm fairly quick after the storm moves east and the sun angle isn't in our favor. Plus, days start getting longer. All of that leads to more melting much faster. So it's a trade-off. We may get 6 inches + but it's here and gone within a few days. I guess it depends on your preference. Do you want snow on the ground for longer periods of time or a big dump (and who doesn't love a big dump! )that doesn't stick around as long. Thanks for the research and insight. Let's all keep our fingers crossed that we have a 45 day period from Feb 1 to March 15 that could pay off. We only need one monster storm to make us all feel better about life! Climo is in our favor. Dilly Dilly!

Huge temp differences between the 12z GFS, Euro, and Canadian, at hour 240 (12z Friday, Jan 26). Bentonville, AR temp: GFS - 43 Euro - 34 Canadian -12 Joplin temp: GFS - 47 Euro - 32 Canadian - 8 Only a 35-40 degree spread.

This is a terrible hobby/obsession. I'm much more sane from April through October when I don't give a crap about the weather.

Heavier snow now in Bentonville. Covering everything quickly.

Latest from NWS Tulsa Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 839 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018 .DISCUSSION... Latest data continue to suggest the next surge of arctic air will move into northeastern Oklahoma late tonight and spread across remainder of area on Monday. Isentropic upglide over the cold air and some frontogentical forcing will result in a band of snow behind the front developing into far nern OK after 3 am and then gradually spreading southward across much of nern OK and nwrn AR Monday morning. Last several runs of various rapid refresh models suggest accmulations may be a little heavier than earlier expected with some guidance showing as much as 3" totals across far nern OK near the KS border. Temps falling into the low/mid 20s during the day tomorrow will result in bigger impacts on the roads than we normally see with even light snow accumulations. The advisory we issued is for the area we have the most confidence in seeing greater than 1" snow accumulations by tomorrow afternoon and/or the area most likely to see icy roads with slightly lesser amounts. Advisory area may be adjusted in later forecasts.

Bentonville had just enough to cover the roads and the rooftops. It was the true definition of a dusting.

Seems like we can't catch a break. Had a great setup this past weekend with .50 to .75 QPF amounts and all it amounted to was a stupid cold rain. Surely it has to go our way sooner or later. EDIT: Maybe the 18z GFS was an ever-so-slight tick in the right direction. Still not holding my breath.

The intriguing part of the GFS is it has consistently shown these bitter cold temps for the last 9 runs now. It doesn't seem to be wavering. The Jan. 2nd 12z temps in our area have been in the teens to well below zero over those 9 runs. The Canadian has also been cold albeit not near as severe. I'm not suggesting the GFS is correct, just noting that there seems to be a pattern. It's sticking to its guns for now. The million dollar question is if it caves on future runs or holds steady.

12z GFS looks awesome for the weekend. But the Canadian lost the storm. Still plenty of time. EDIT: GFS temps are absolutely insane. At least 24 hours below zero. I can't even imagine.

We really need to cash in next weekend before the pattern flips. If JB is correct we may have a break until Feb then the cold comes back until sometime in March.

Tulsa not throwing in the towel yet. .DISCUSSION... A little bit of everything going on this evening...with exiting thunderstorms across far southeast OK and a wide variety of rain/freezing rain/sleet and snow across much of the remainder of the forecast area. 00Z OUN sounding showed an impressive warm layer from 900-700mb ensuring that much of the precip was falling as sleet this evening (with some freezing rain mixed in) over most of northeast OK. Radar suggests that we`ll see a brief lull in precipitation later this evening before another area of mostly snow associated with the upper low lifts into the region. The last several runs of the HRRR seem to have a reasonable handle on the situation...with the deformation zone setting up across northeast OK into northwest AR/southwest MO later tonight. Highest snow totals look to set up from near Tulsa and points east-northeast (also supported by recent SREF plumes)...with 1-2 inches possible although there could be isolated spots that get 3-4 inches. Lowered PoPs some across southeast OK where the dry slot is working in...and also kept a mention of freezing rain for northeast OK the remainder of the evening hours.

I'm not super impressed with the radar at this point. Big break in the action around OKC with not much back in Texas. Hopefully I'm wrong.