The Waterboy

Do we know the answer to this question yet?

Each model run seems to be getting progressively more concerning. At what point do we panic? Most of us have already invested a week into tracking this. If it falls apart now... We’ll, let’s not even go there yet.

Yep. I’m taking a camera screenshot of it which is probably the issue. Maybe there’s a better way.

NWS Tulsa updated their snowfall graphic. For some reason I can’t upload it due to the 1.95mb max.

Gotta love the NAM. Some places get to 3-5 “inches” in a 3 hour period. In the very NW corner of AR I go from 12 to 17 between hours 81 to 84.

Here’s another odd thing about that GFS run regarding the high pressure to our north. Someone smarter than me can give their thoughts. If you look frame by frame the placement is as follows: 60 - SW Iowa 66 - East IL - slight shift east from hr 60 72 - Western OH - shift east again 84 - Just west of Chicago - HUH??? Shifted back west 300+ miles. I don’t think so, Tim. 90 - On top of Pittsburgh, PA Maybe it’s nothing but hour 84 can’t be correct. I would think we would prefer the high not to kick east too far too fast. The NAM bounces it around Iowa and Wisconsin through 84.

18z FV3 was a train wreck.

NWS Tulsa takes the easy road for now. Can’t say I blame them: .DISCUSSION... The most impactful portion of this forecast package occurs on Friday and Saturday as the potential for wintry weather continues. Before we get the winter weather potential, the area will experience a mostly sunny day on Wednesday with warmer temperatures as the surface high pressure system over the area Today shifts to the southeast. Even with the warmer temperatures, readings will be at or below seasonal normals. On Thursday, we will see a cold front move through the region with precipitation developing in the vicinity of the boundary. The precipitation will continue Friday north of the frontal boundary with strong isentropic lift in place across the region. The type of precipitation on Friday will be mostly rain with a wintry mix possible on the northern edge of the precipitation shield. More of a wintry mix is expected Friday Night into Saturday as an upper level low moves out of northern Mexico and across the Southern Plains. The precipitation is expected to transition to mostly snow as we move through Saturday Night as the upper level low moves over the area and off to the east. The precipitation is expected to come to an end by Sunday Morning. With that said, it is still way too early to focus on exact precipitation types and amounts as the upper level low that will drive what is expected to happen is still out over the Pacific Ocean. The forecast will continue to be refined over the next couple of days.

Are you agreeing with his post that the GFS is unrealistic or saying that temps typically warm at the surface in this type of setup? Just wanted to clarify. I think it’s the former. Sometimes the WAA wins over but that’s usually with more southerly winds. The high up north hopefully keeps that at bay.

Canadian looks solid.

Here’s a temp comparison between the 06 GFS and the 12 NAM: Hour. GFS. NAM 60. 38. 35 66. 35. 30 72. 36. 29 78. 39. 31 84. 37. 32 sorry for the ugly format Typing on my phone.

I couldn’t agree more. Feb 2011 is a great example of that. Models and NWS were calling for 2-4 inches. I ended up with 17 after being under a heavy band for about 3 hours. I prefer under estimating and then hitting the jackpot. Although that is rare.

Will be interesting to see the next few NAM runs as it gets more into range. Temps are 3-5 degrees colder then the 00z GFS @84. If I recall correctly the NAM tends the handle the cold, shallow air better. Is that right or did I make that up?

Welcome aboard. This is the only board I follow. Lots of great people here. GFS run was great. Canadian cuts up to the NE. Couldn’t be more polar opposite from each other. Nothing else that I see supports the Canadian track at this time.

Also, anyone have any thoughts on the 18z NAM at 84 hrs vs the 12z GFS/FV3 at 90? LP looks more juiced based on precip and further east but still in northern MX (On the NAM). I know it’s the NAM at 84 which sucks but maybe it’s worth some banter.

It’s updated now. I just looked at Bentonville/Rogers, AR (selfishly since that’s where I am) and 23 members have 6 inches or more. A lot of those are over a foot. Anything is still on the table.

Is this based on 00z or 12z? Weather.us didn’t have the 12z ensembles updated yet because I wanted to look at the same thing. Still sounds like 50% ish are good. About all we can ask for right now. Survive and advance.

Will also be curious to see what the Euro ensembles so show. Hopefully this is a blip and not a trend. If it’s a trend let’s know sooner rather then later so we can focus on something else the next few days!

Track still looks solid even though a slight bump north again. Temps were a bit warmer. Hopefully nothing to worry about at this point. Doesn’t the GFS have a warm bias? Hopefully we get a benefit from the snowpack to our north. Canadian wasn’t terrible either. The north shift is slightly concerning. If this continues it’s back to the usual I-44 jackpot.

Some of the Euro Ens members are nuts with amounts. Quite a few showing over 8 inches with a handful pushing 12-18. Of course there are also a few showing zero which I willfully choose to ignore.

Here’s what NWS Tulsa had to say: While there are still differences in the details, which is expected in the day 6-7 time frame, the GFS and ECMWF both suggest increasing chances for precipitation across the region late next week in advance of a decent southern stream wave. The EC, however, is also more aggressive with the southward push of cold air down the Plains as it has a much more pronounced northern stream wave. This is that dreaded one-two punch that is often seen during big winter storms. While I`m not going to go full boar on this solution, it is prudent to at least introduce the potential for winter weather by day 7 (next Friday).

As StormChazer pointed out earlier the GFS solutions over the last few runs seems extremely wonky. Especially the 12z run. Shows snow on the east side with rain further west. That doesn’t seem very plausible outside of an ice storm with a lot of WAA. Althiugh I don’t have the specifics I think the FV3 has been more accurate than the GFS. 7 days out there seems to be good agreement amongst all models and many ensemble members that there will be something to watch. Personally, I prefer when the models don’t pick up on something until 4-5 days out. Tracking this for 8-10 days is maddening. We still have a week to go.

Euro looks good. Last 3 runs continue to increase amounts. As usual, I-44 and north is the current bullseye.

We’re the Cleveland Browns of WSW’s! They finally got a win this year so hopefully we can too. Even South Texas and North FL have had one in the last year. Not sure if we should laugh, cry, or move.

That is some serious blocking. Pretty much the same that Joe Bastardi/Weatherbell’s model has been showing for the winter.