The Waterboy

18z GFS answered your wish around hour 270. Enjoy!

Heavy sleet in Bentonville.

The HRRR looks a lot more amped than the actual radar. I’m wondering if more precio develops or if models are overdoing it.

This is by far the coldest Halloween I can recall in at least a decade. Maybe longer. FYI - I just read that Tulsa has only seen snow in Oct 6 times in the last 119 years. Here’s to hoping this is a great sign of things to come.

Welcome back from summer hibernation everyone!!!

Also looks like they are all backing off on the rain this afternoon and tonight. Seems to go straight to snow for the most part although we are only looking at 6 hour increments.

00z NAM is still a wreck.

GFS was jacked up on Mt. Dew.

Any idea why those 2 different map views don’t match? The Kansas view shows a large area of 6+ inches in purple. The MO view has the purple in MO only.

This is our last chance this season. We at least need a late 4th quarter field goal to keep from getting shut out. I’d rather lose 56-3 than 56-0.

Amber, Congrats on the Master’s degree. That’s a huge accomplishment!!! I’ll complete the survey and would love to read your final capstone upon completion.

00Z NAM is colder than previous runs FWIW.

Based on NWS Tulsa’s disco this afternoon those maps are errors. They are going with the Euro.

It’s snowing in Bentonville per the radar yet absolutely nothing is happening outside. Dry air I guess???

I was adding up all of the dustings over the last 3+ years! Lol

Maybe we’ll get our 8th dusting in a row tonight. Yippee!!!!

Merry Christmas!!!

I just saw that too!!! Only 384 hours to go.

I wonder how many counties in the WWA from NWS Tulsa saw absolutely nothing today?

The HRRR still continues to show a band of snow from Lawton to OKC to just south of Tulsa to Fayetteville. A tick further north and NWWhiteout and I may see a bit here in Benton Co. The 18z next hour will give us a better idea. The last 6-8 hours of runs have improved.

I’m really more pissed at myself for the following: 1. Looking at any computer model more than 48 hours out. And 48 hours is still being generous. 2. Giving the NAM any credibility. We knew the insane totals were too high but it was awful with the eventual track. 3. The GFS sucked for us but assuming NC hits the jackpot it will have been accurate for them at a much longer lead time. 4. With all that being said I still agree with OUamber. Screw the GFS. It gets no apology for being right. 5. Loving winter weather in the south sucks and is maddening. Looks like our snow drought continues. At least we can restart the clock on # of days since a WSW has been issued for our area. #silverlining 6. At least we’re all miserable together today. It was supposed to be a great Friday.

12z HRRR gives some of us a glimmer of hope. But only for NE OK from about Tulsa South up through NW AR. It’s significant improvement over the 06z. Who knows...

JoMo, Do you have access to the 18z Euro that they are mentioning In the TN and SE forum?

3k NAM at 18z wasn’t bad.

Looks like the HRRR runs to 18 hours except at 00, 06, 12, and 18z when it runs to 36 hours.