The Waterboy

Looks to me like the Euro takes a similar track as the the other models but Euro temps from hour 66 to 84 are roughly 5-8 degrees warmer than all the other models.

Euro shifted SE a bit. Nice hit for OKC to Tulsa to Joplin.

Canadian is very similar to the NAM. Will be interesting to see what the Euro does since it’s by far the most NW.

I keep telling my wife this is our best chance in the last few years. I like that the GFS is still SE of us. Gives us time for the NW shift that normally screws most of us. if this one falls apart I’m mentally preparing for Spring and allergy season. Edit: 06 Euro is too far NW for some of us.

12z Euro looks nice from Lawton to OKC to Tulsa to Joplin. Right up I-44. Too far NW for those of us in NWAR. Temps are 3-4 degrees too warm (of course)

Here’s a sobering comment in Tulsa’s overnight discussion. Wettest month in 71 years and still no snow. DISCUSSION... A mainly dry stretch of weather is anticipated through the forecast period, which is a welcome relief in many places that have seen their wettest January in decades. Tulsa will end January as the 4th wettest on record, and the wettest since 1949.

Decent sized flakes falling in Bentonville this morning. 33 degrees. Very unexpected.

00z ICON for the win next week.

NAM keeps trending a few degrees warmer. Most of us were right on the edge in earlier runs. 0z didn’t trend in our favor.

NWS Tulsa: Now to the big challenge of this forecast. For several days, models have brought a strong wave across the Plains just to our south Tuesday with widespread precipitation expected on the system`s north side, that has never been in question. What has been in question was the amount of cold air the system would have to work with. Today`s runs, especially the NAM which tends to handle low level cold air better, have trended colder behind the back door front that will be working its way into the region late Monday into Tuesday. As such, this forecast will trend colder at the surface and will have more snow accumulation across NE OK and NW AR. Raw model snow accumulation forecasts from the NAM and ECMWF suggest that advisory level snow accumulation is possible anywhere north of I-40 Tuesday into Tuesday night. The main question will be the marginal temps near the ground. If it`s a rain/snow mix that would greatly cut the accumulation potential. There is also light icing potential in the terrain of NW AR. Precipitation should come to an end by Wednesday morning as the system moves off to the east. Bottom line, travel impacts from winter weather are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night mainly north of I-40.

Significant temp difference between the GFS and NAM (no surprise there). The NWS discussions are considerably different as well. Tulsa way more bullish then OKC, Springfield, and Little Rock.

Bentonville had enough to barely coat the grass and rooftops. I wouldn’t even call it a dusting.

Here’s some interesting history for you for Fayetteville snowfall over the years. Maybe this helps you feel better. Or not... Here are the top 4 maximum snowfall years since records started in 1949. 1. 27” in 2010 2. 23.5” - 1978 3. 20.5 - 1960 4. 20.4 - 2011 That means 2 of the top four record years were within the last 10 years. Unfortunately 3 of the bottom 7 years have occurred since 2012. And 8 of the bottom 10 have occurred since 1998. 2 inches a year keeps you out of the bottom 10 so it doesn’t take much.

Tulsa issued a WWA for a few counties in extreme NEOK/NWAR. Up to 1 inch.

Still looks possible that SW MO and extreme NWA eek out a dusting or so late tonight/tomorrow morning.

Bentonville has about 1/2 inch. Local news said Fort Smith had an inch and Van Buren had 2. Snow started there around 5 am. I think the extra hour or so of darkness might have helped their totals a bit. I was surprised to hear Fayetteville got zilch.

Based on previous conversations here I’m not sure this holds much merit but I’ll throw it out anyway. One of the short range models (WRF-ARW2) shows some fairly impressive wraparound snow. Has snow in Benton Co, AR for 18 hours straight from hr 30 to 48. The NAM has the same rough idea but not near as bullish. Again, note my disclaimer this may be garbage. But interesting. And still gives a bit of hope for some backside fun.

Very difficult to not be frustrated by this one. The heavier bands set up for some of us like the models generally showed. Instead of 1-2”/hr snowfall rates it has piss poured sleet here for an hour while it’s 27 degrees. This just isn’t our decade...

This kinda sucks from NWS Norman office. Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Norman OK 933 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 .UPDATE... Main impact of evening update was to decrease snow/sleet amounts most areas for overnight and Saturday morning. Still could see an axis of enhanced sleet/snow accumulations from western north Texas and adjacent Oklahoma counties of south-central Oklahoma, north and northeast into central Oklahoma overnight and Saturday morning as upper trough lifts out. Western parts of Oklahoma may see brief flurries but nothing impactful. We have adjusted the winter weather advisory to remove northwest Oklahoma and add a few counties across western north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Overall, most locations that see snow will see less than an inch, but given very cold trough, prolonged saturated dendritic zone from around Wichita Falls up through the I-44 corridor overnight and tomorrow morning, there could still be periodic bands of moderate snow that could create impacts. Initially, there could also be patchy freezing rain/sleet that could help bridges and overpasses to become slick. A minimal type advisory event, but not worth canceling entire advisory. Big takeaway is the very cold wind chill values much of tomorrow, which I think we might get right.

NWS Tulsa finally issues a Winter Storm Warning after 1700+ days. Glad that drought is over.

Cold front is on the move. Ponca City - 41 degrees 70 miles east in Bartlesville it’s still 61 Wichita is 32.

18z HRRR looks good for most of us.

My very uneducated opinion is that the details of the HRRR aren’t extremely reliable when looking at minute details. As you pointed out, if you look back a few hours the details seem to vary widely at times. I like to see the strong def band back in NW TX on the 16z even though parts ok OK aren’t filled in. I think it’s a better look than the 12z. Again, just my 2 cents.

I think here in NWAR we may see at least a couple of hours of fz rain (minimal) and sleet before the transition to snow. This continues to cut down on snow totals. Canadian has Benton County at 30 degrees at hour 24 and down to 26 at hour 30. The precip maps show rain at 24 and mix at 30. Sleet at 26 degrees is certainly possible but hopefully we get a transition to snow. As usual with complex situations like this, someone will over perform whiles others lose out (more sleet). Let the games begin!

The track of the NAM still looks good (and better than some previous runs) Not as juiced as we’d like to see, but not terrible. I’m ready to get to tomorrow morning so we can start tracking it real time on the radar.