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The Waterboy

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  1. The Waterboy
    Wondering how you all feel about these: 1. I’ll take a wet snow over a dry, blowing snow pretty much every time. 2. I much prefer models showing a few inches and the storm over performing vs this nonsense of 12” turning into way less.
  2. The Waterboy
    You jinxed it! And we’re all blaming you!!!
  3. The Waterboy
    Finally started coming down heavier in Bentonville. Road/driveway coated in 30 mins or less. We’re going to need these heavy bands to continue for a few hours straight in order to get 6+.
  4. The Waterboy
    All snow here in NWA. Decent sized flakes. Roads are primarily wet even at 23°. Happy to see we escaped the sleet/fz rain. Hopefully everybody transitions quickly.
  5. The Waterboy
    Fair enough. That makes sense. Now it’s time to have fun and see what happens!
  6. The Waterboy
    The mood here soured quickly…. what happened??? Edit: 03z RAP only shows 13” for me versus the 18” on the 21z. Let’s not throw out the baby with the bath water.
  7. The Waterboy
    14” in Bentonville. Wow…
  8. The Waterboy
    15z RAP drops between 0.75 to 1” QPF in a swath from far SE KS, NE OK, SW MO, into NW AR. Wichita NWS mentions ratios 18:1 - 20:1.
  9. The Waterboy
    Models are locked into a major event for pretty much everybody NE of OKC. Still some interesting differences in the heaviest bands which will be almost impossible to predict in advance. Tulsa, Wichita, Joplin, Springfield, Bentonville all look like the potential bullseye areas. The NAM continues to be the outlier and it hasn’t been great for the entire storm.
  10. The Waterboy
    RDPS and ICON smash NE OK and NW AR.
  11. The Waterboy
    Yes we are. I’m not convinced it’s right. Way too much sleet to start. 18z RDPS going to look good for us which is the trend we want to see continue. EDIT: Looks like the ICON will be solid too.
  12. The Waterboy
    NAM still continues to be the overall outlier compared to pretty much every other model. Let’s hope it’s wrong.
  13. The Waterboy
    18z ICON continues to be a solid hit for us.
  14. The Waterboy
    I remember the good old days of TWC as well. I used to have a NOAA radar detector that would play a recorded forecast from NWS Tulsa. It would update around lunchtime every day. As Nate Bargatze says - I’m from the 1900’s. Bottom line in this reminiscing is: Some of us (me included) are getting old! If you younger folks don’t know what we’re talking about, enjoy your youth!!!
  15. The Waterboy
    Same for me in Bentonville. We got 4” after 10:30 last night. Just measured between 6-7” total.
  16. The Waterboy
    Probably so. Just stating it’s been interesting to have light, but steady flakes since about 5:00. Nothing really heavy. I still think 5-6” is very doable. Sounds like some areas around Fort Smith and south will hit a foot or more. I also think Muskogee/Tahlequah also has some juicy totals when it’s all over.
  17. The Waterboy
    I’m around 2” in Bentonville. Benton/Washington Counties have been in the lightest radar echos pretty much the entire event. The heavier stuff east of Tulsa never shifts to the east.
  18. The Waterboy
    Yes we do! Fingers crossed.
  19. The Waterboy
    How is it that NWA gets stuck in the middle of the dry air donut hole??? Ugh!!!
  20. The Waterboy
    The NAM was an absolute smash!!!
  21. The Waterboy
    Looks like 18z high-res Canadian shifted NW ever so slightly which increases totals for pretty much everybody.
  22. The Waterboy
    12z Canadian stays the course which is nice to see. Very similar to its 12z run yesterday and more robust than the 00z last night.
  23. The Waterboy
    And right on cue the NW shifts comes…
  24. The Waterboy
    12z Canadian has a nasty ice storm next Monday/Tuesday. Yikes!!!
  25. The Waterboy
    The radar west of OKC looks good. Let’s get a few inches and enjoy all the hard work we’ve put into this!!!
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