Powerball

Oh shit!!!

Why does this keep happening?

So basically, from what I can tell, the biggest take aways from the 1991 - 2020 normals are: *Winters got snowier in the Great Lakes *Springs got cooler *Summers and Falls got hotter

Looks like DFW's average highs for JJA and September increased roughly 1*F for each month with the 1991 - 2020 normals. It seems April and May's average went down 2-3*F though.

Yes, you're correct about the reports in Georgia. Apparently, I got cross eyed when looking through them.

Per the SPC, there were at least 2 fatalities yesterday. One was caused by the tornado in Douglasville, GA that caused a tree to fall on top of someone, and the other was a semi-truck driver that was caught on the tornado that crossed I-35 just outside of Waxahachie, TX.

The Tornado Watch in TX has been replaced with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 3am.

Looks like 3 tornado reports so far on the SPC's page (all in FWD's CWA). They're all south of Dallas, away from where the 10% hatched area was.

The latest Hi-Res models aren't very bullish on it surviving to DFW, but the conditions are certainly there to keep it going.

Insane amount of lightning with the storms across TX and OK. Nearly 1,800 strikes per minute.

Can kind of see what looks like a mesolow or MCV developing in eastern Collin County.

"Untapped" isn't the word I would use. It was impacted by a severe warned cell earlier. That said, although things have stabilized at the surface, there's still plenty of elevated instability as mid-level lapse rates continue to steepen.

It looks like the storms SE of Dallas may be morphing into what could become a MCS.

Official high at DFW was 92*F, by far the hottest day of the year.

HRRR's sounding still shows just a wee bit of capping in place. Combined with the less than impressive low level flow may be why the storms haven't been as robust as they could be (so far) and seem to be getting messy. This may end up sparing the heart of DFW from anything too severe. A ton of hail reports though (all 2" or less).

Getting pea-sized hail.

The sky here looks really nasty now. Lightning's picking up and hearing cracks of thunder. Seems a cell is bubbling up just to the SW of me.

If I'm not mistaken, this would be the first 2021 tornado report in FWD's CWA.

Yeah, it's insane how quickly the sky conditions changed.

livecode json SEL3 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 133 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Oklahoma North-central Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Intense supercells are expected to initiate along the dryline in north-central Texas and the surface front in southeast Oklahoma by about 6 PM CDT. Very large hail will be the primary initial threat, but tornadoes and significant severe winds will be possible as well. Supercells should grow upscale into one or more clusters with an increasing risk of damaging winds this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles northeast of Muskogee OK to 40 miles southwest of Waco TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 128...WW 129...WW 130...WW 131...WW 132... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Grams

Indeed. But that's one hell of a sounding for monster-sized hail and collapsing storms.

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 133 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 350 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021 TORNADO WATCH 133 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS TXC027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-139-143-147-181-193-213- 217-221-223-231-251-257-277-281-309-333-349-367-379-397-425-439- 467-497-040400- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0133.210503T2050Z-210504T0400Z/ TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BOSQUE COLLIN COMANCHE COOKE CORYELL DALLAS DELTA DENTON ELLIS ERATH FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL HOOD HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR LAMPASAS MCLENNAN MILLS NAVARRO PARKER RAINS ROCKWALL SOMERVELL TARRANT VAN ZANDT WISE $$ ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 133 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 350 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021 TORNADO WATCH 133 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS OKC001-005-013-019-021-023-029-061-063-069-077-079-085-091-095- 099-101-107-111-121-123-127-133-135-040400- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0133.210503T2050Z-210504T0400Z/ OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL HASKELL HUGHES JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE MARSHALL MCINTOSH MURRAY MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH $$

19z special sounding for FWD:

You can now start to see what looks to be gravity waves on the visible satellite, and the CU field increasing. This is all on the nose of the 700mb jet streak. Should start seeing action rev up soon.

5000 J/KG MUCAPE popping up on the SPC mesoanalysis page now. Also, LIs of -12