Powerball
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Everything posted by Powerball
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'99 had a Blizzard Warning.
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They didn't think the expected snowfall total (1-3") was worth a WAA. They instead opted to cover it with a SWS.
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It appears the slow step back down to reality has begun with the 00z NAM.
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Roger Smith has spoken...
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There didn't appear to be any observations of snow at the NWS sites out that way as of 4pm CT
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5pm now and still no AFD. I can only figure it's a doozy, lol...
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18z GFS is an improvement from the 12z GFS run.
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18z ICON is more amped / NW though.
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To be clear, I know there's virtually no chance of the 3km 18z NAM happening (it doesn't even jive with how the upper levels look). But got damn, it is some nice eye candy...
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This of course excludes WAA snows...
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That 3km 18z NAM is quite nice for Detroit. Full-blown blizzard. EDIT: Flying home-worthy
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It's not just the snow totals either, but there will also be significant blowing/drifting and fairly high rates. Considering that, an argument could be made for an impact-based WSW despite snow totals possibly falling short of the technical threshold. But that debate is a whole 'nother can of worms, especially with the recent changes to the criteria that have been rolled out.
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HRRR is finally coming back to earth with the 18z run.
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It was still a decent snowstorm for the Detroit area (just not a big dog)
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12z UKMET has taken a step back from the amped runs yesterday. It looks more like the GGEM now.
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Severe weather easy to predict? *Laughs in Southern Plains under DFW's cap of steel*
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12z NAM will also continue to be amped / NW...
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Yeah, they punted. Kind of funny, but not surprising.
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Perhaps a more unfortunate trend is that the models have been slowly but steadily doing away with the initial WAA snow...
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12z HRRR is holding firm with the amped / NW solution. We'll see if the other 12z models follow suit...
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I have to imagine that DTW, IWX and GRR issue watches for portions of their CWA this morning. Certainly enough of a consensus in model guidance to support it at this stage...
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lol
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The 18z RGEM is also looking more similar to the UKMET and NAM, for what little it's worth...
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It did end up similar to the UKMET for eastern areas.
