Maggie Valley Steve

The first low level recon is underway. So far there is no indication of surface circulation.

I'm not sold yet on the various model solutions for 94L. I'd feel more confident if we had days of agreement as we did last year with Helene. Once recon gets in for their standard cyclone sampling I believe we will get better agreement in the Hurricane and operational guidance. As you can see below, a lot of aircraft assets are being ramped up and the G-IV high altitude surveillance flights will be valuable for the upper air pattern conditions. 000 NOUS42 KNHC 251715 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 115 PM EDT THU 25 SEPTEMBER 2025 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2025 TCPOD NUMBER.....25-116 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR HISPANIOLA - AL94) FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 42 A. 27/0000Z A. 27/0000Z B. NOAA9 09GGA SURV B. NOAA2 10GGA TDR C. 26/1730Z C. 26/2000Z D. NA D. 22.3N 74.8W E. NA E. 26/2100Z TO 27/0300Z F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 75 FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 49 A. 27/0600Z A. 27/1200Z B. AFXXX 11GGA SURVEY B. NOAA9 12GGA SURV C. 27/0445Z C. 27/0530Z D. 22.8N 75.3W D. NA E. 27/0530Z TO 27/0900Z E. NA F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT G. SYSTEM SURVEY G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE H. WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT SIX - TEAL 76 A. 27/1200Z A. 27/1130,1730Z B. NOAA2 1309A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 1409A CYCLONE C. 27/0800Z C. 27/1015Z D. 23.2N 75.7W D. 23.2N 75.7W E. 27/0900Z TO 27/1600Z E. 27/1100Z TO 27/1730Z F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR G. FIX H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. CONTINUE 6-HOURLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT. B. TWO MORE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO AL94 FOR 28/0000Z AND 28/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 27/2000Z AND 28/0800Z RESPECTIVELY. C. TWO MORE NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS AROUND AL94 FOR THE 28/0000Z AND 28/1200Z SYNOPTIC TIMES, DEPARTING KLAL AT 27/1730Z AND 28/0530Z RESPECTIVELY. 3. REMARKS: A. THE TEAL 75 AND TEAL 76 MISSIONS INTO AL94 TASKED IN TCPOD 25-116 WERE CANCELED BY NHC AT 25/1200Z. B. THE TEAL 74 MISSION INTO AL94 HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A LOW-LEVEL INVEST NEAR 21.9N 74.2W FOR 26/1730Z, WITH THE TAKEOFF TIME CHANGED 6 HOURS TO 26/1545Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. $$ KAL

And there's the first statement from GSP this evening.

Big slow moving storms moving into the far SW Mountain Counties. GSP stated in their afternoon disco that rain chance increase over the Mountains overnight into tomorrow morning. Nothing looks severe, but there is so very rich tropical moisture out there and heavy rainfall is a possibility.

NHC will initiate Advisories for TS Humberto at 5 PM.

The 12Z GFS solution suggests our rain chances will continue over the next 5 to 7 days with some SW Mountain locations possibly exceeding 5 inches

We're getting a shower this evening in the Valley. It's looking like a wet period ahead the next several days. My neighbor just below us commented that we are having an early Fall. Her family have been in Maggie Valley for generations. She stated that this year reminds her of 10 years ago. To @WxKnurd I was in Sylva yesterday and Waynesville today. There is a spattering of color, bit we're still a couple of weeks away from peak at high Valley locations. I'll head up to Waterrock Knob in the next day or two and if I can some pictures to share.

No rain today, but we had a decent shower last evening for about 45 minutes. Our Poplar trees a starting to dump on September 22nd. That seems early to me.

We will need to keep an eye on mid to late next week. The models are coming together suggesting the possibility of a rather potent upper low swinging in from the NW and cutting off in our neck of the woods. While it is far too soon to know the details, the potential is there for flooding concerns right around the 1 year Anniversary of Helene.

Lots thunder and just a brief light shower here in the Valley.

I headed up to Waterrock Knob today to check out the leaf progression. There is some change with a few trees beginning to show changes towards vibrant reds, orange and yellow. We're probably about 10 to 15 days away from peak at elevation. Surprisingly around the house, Poplar are turning yellow and brown and beginning to fall. That late August cold spell did it's work!

I ended up getting a couple of afternoon/evening showers and the clouds hung in all day. It's currently 60 after a high of 71.

We just had a shower at the house. The high today was 73. This morning the low was 55.

Radar has certainly come alive this afternoon. Looks like another day or so of additional showers. I suspect we will see some bright reds added to the leaves as we progress quickly toward peak Fall Leaf Season.

I had a high today of 68 after a low of 46. We're getting a lot of clouds throughout the day which surprised me. Lots of hay fields being cut around the area. I see some of the models are showing a possibility of another strong front in about 8 to 10 days.

I had a low of 47 this morning and a high of 69. What a beautiful day in our Valley! We have an active Red Fox working in our little neighborhood. This time of year always brings excitement!

We had a noisy Thunderstorm around 5 this morning that brought heavy rain. The Elk are moving around the house this morning as well.

Woke up at 4:30 this morning and it was 58. No rain at the house today and I had a high of 74. Lots of Bikers in town which is a good thing for our Valley. Folks are slowly coming back after almost a year for the Helene Anniversary.

It's Thunder In the Smokies Motorcycle Rally this weekend and we had bouts of Thunder and showers this evening! Does that 10 day 'rule' to snow count now?

Finally some sunshine! Emptied 2.45 inches out the gage this afternoon. Fall is coming quickly this year.

Currently raining after a couple of showers yesterday and a couple today. Temperature is 60.

Keep an eye on the Carla Cradle and along any stalled boundaries along the Gulf. I believe East Coast threats are limited for the time being and possibly for the rest of the Season.

So apparently the chilly weather has brought on an early Fall leaf change to maple trees among other varieties here in the Valley! The fire fighters were burning leaves at the Fire Station this afternoon.

It sure looks like our Fall weather will continue into mid September. The models are suggesting multiple potentially strong cold fronts pushing in with the next reinforcing shot arriving later next week. I believe it is safe to say summer is over as the daylight gets shorter!

After a low of 48 this morning, I managed to warm up to 72 this afternoon. Currently it's 63 at the house.