Maggie Valley Steve

This sure is looking like 48 to possibly a near 60 hour event for precipitation for the Mountains. Ugly ugly ugly. There is nothing good about this. Major Winter Storm approaching catastrophic if these trends continue.

I had a sheet of ice on my asphalt driveway this morning and almost slipped on my backside. Not expected or forecasted. Hunter is right about the short-term guidance. We've been monitoring the Globals for a week now. Attention turns to the shorter range high resolution guidance for more nuanced possibilities.

Glad you folks are monitoring my buddy Jeremy. He is a great Meteorologist and a great guy that updates Twitter regularly when the 53rd is active not only for Hurricanes!

So my buddy Jeremy DeHart posted on Twitter that the sampling of the Baja low will be in the 00Z GFS and ECMWF tonight, but could take a couple of cycles to settle the guidance down. He also stated the the missions tomorrow in the Gulf will offer thermal profiles to better assist guidance going forward.

How about them appetizers! Not a cloud in the sky and 43.

We're going to get a G-IV high altitude Recon mission tomorrow evening!

Afternoon update Day 4 Outlook for snow.

No new data from RECON until tomorrow.

It's an excuse to become emotionally unattached to the anything to do with a storm of this potential. I've seen it for years with Tropical Systems. Human nature is still what it is .

My hunch is that the GFS is handling the very cold and dense Arctic front better this time. I'm also watching Texas carefully as well. It appears the freezing temperatures will make it to the Coast on Friday evening/early Saturday morning creating and icy mess across Metro Houston and possibly Galveston. So today into tomorrow should provide a bit more clarity and then we can start exploring p-types and amounts.

So I got some clarity from Jeremy DeHart on Twitter. Jeremy is an AF Reserve Meteorologist for the Hurricane Hunter missions for many years now. He stated that last night mission was a reposition flight back to Keesler. The mission today will sample the Baja low with additional missions sampling the Gulf tomorrow.

Currently 20 at the house and heavy frost. GSP stated in the morning AFD that Winter Storm Watch is coming later today. The WPC in their morning discussions suggested that there is still a great deal of uncertainty with too much run to run inconsistencies and and too much uncertainty in the Northern stream energy. They stated that the North trend is noted, but they're no buying yet.

You folks are already under a Winter Storm Watch aren't you?

Recon is already sampling the upper low. They flew out of Honolulu. Hopefully we will see that data ingest begin by 6Z and definitely by 12Z tomorrow.

You live in Southern Virginia don't you?

It's sort of gotten lost in the Big Dog, but my point and click has rain/snow chance developing tomorrow evening and continuing into Friday morning. It does look like the high for the week will be tomorrow here at the house in the low to mid 40’s. I've been at or near freezing since last Saturday morning.

We're going to get Winter RECON sampling the upper low ENE of Hawaii tomorrow with additional Atmospheric River sampling over the Eastern Pacific for the moisture headed our way.

Yep. Starts late Wednesday night into Thursday possibly extending into early Friday morning. That's the appetizer I mentioned the other day.

I've got to say, that was probably the best AFD from GSP I seen since just before Helene. Obviously this is an all of Government event from the local, County, State and Federal. Every meteorological asset we have is being thrown at this upcoming event. I expect some big changes ahead the next coming days in regards to modeling with the RECON data being assimilated.

It's a tough and thankless job that requires a lot of time if you really care. Thank you Michelle for all you do and especially after John passed away.

Perhaps it's time to ask a couple of folks to help you out during big events?

Winter RECON Missions upcoming over the Pacific ENE of Hawaii sampling the Upper Low tomorrow. Additionally missions for the atmospheric River streaming in across the Baja and Texas are planned as well.

Hey Gang. There's a big storm acomin!

Still garbage here as well.

I believe that you folks in GSP area are extremely close to a dividing line due to a possibility of a pesky warm nose. That said, this far out (beyond 36 to 48 hours) it is a wait and see situation. There is little doubt that the potential is rather high for a Major Winter Storm from Central Texas and points E to the Atlantic Coast. I believe that certainty is all we can expect for a Storm 5 to 7 days out. You're welcome to hang out with our group. We may not be the most popular, but the knowledge base of our Mountain folk is second to none in my opinion.