Maggie Valley Steve

I suspect if the 00Z and 6Z short range guidance increases the amount of deformation banding and heavier as well as a bit longer duration upslope episode, we'll see Winter Storm Watches hoisted for the Mountain Counties tomorrow morning. Now if those thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast end up not coming to fruition as the guidance suggests, we could see higher totals Wednesday with over running snow. We will see.

I believe a general 2 to 4 inches is possible even here in the higher Valleys. To me, the big question is the following upslope snow development as the surface low pressure passes by and the potent upper low slides in Wednesday night into Thursday.

21 here. Clear sky and no snow.

It's been spitting snow off and on most of the afternoon. No accumulation though.

I went from 52 at 9:30 to 43 now. I've had several gusts above 40mph since the front passed through.

Not bad at all. Arctic High in Eastern Montana/Dakota's is stronger at 1055ish and we stay all snow throughout the duration including SWNC.

GSP mentioned several things this morning that caught my eye. The Miller A is showing things on the models that is not typical. Freezing rain/sleet is very uncommon for a Miller A. The Forecaster stated the the dividing line appears to the NC/SC border, bit not real comfortable with an exact solution. GFS was what snow while the Euro was all snow. Also mentioned was snow in the Mountains and another snow chance next Saturday for the Mountains. The grids have increased snow chances beginning Tuesday night into Wednesday before tapering off Wednesday night. The guidance likely will continue to struggle the next 24 to 36 hours with their final solutions.

Going to take some time to saturate down with the dry air behind the front tomorrow morning. Hoping for an earlier start overnight Tuesday with snow actually making it to the ground early Wednesday morning.

Kids. I was in my Junior year at Mars Hill in 1979

Nice hit on the Euro. Has my house in the 8 inch + range 5 days out.

The wind today is howling through the Valley. Looking like we may see some gusts exceeding 45 to 50 MPH overnight into tomorrow morning.

Yeah, the grinds have us snowing from overnight Tuesday into Thursdays night. Still a lot of room for changes. And it looks bitter cold later next week as well.

Still 5 days out, but the initial WPC discussion is out. Expect fine tuning for the next several days.

Please pin this thread!

My low was 24. Snow guns have blowing all night at Cataloochee. Looks like it's going to snow after some rain Sunday afternoon and evening. More wintry weather Tuesday afternoon into Thurday as well!

The afternoon update from the Climate Prediction Center is impressive.

My point and click forecast has a low of 21 in the morning. Saturday morning has a chance of freezing rain around daybreak and then heavy rain with thunderstorms. Sunday afternoon has a snow chance and snow for Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Time to start paying a little closer attention to next week!

I ended up with 3.67 inches of rain for the event. Jonathan Creek is running well above normal.

We've really dodged a bullet today here in the Valley. It's been fluctuating between light to moderate rain the past couple of hours and still stuck at 33. The ground is really saturated now. Fingers and toes crossed that flooding issues do not become a reality.

33 and rain at the house.

Starting the day at 37.

Down to 36 at the house. Cataloochee is reporting 29 now.

The Mountains are now in the Heavy Rainfall area in the Updated WPC Hazard Outlook.

It's beginning to look like we may have a potential for flooding next week particularly Tuesday through Thursday. Something to keep an eye on.

What a glorious 'false spring' day in the Mountains! I hit 66 today which is the highest temperature since last December. Tomorrow looks even warmer and will be a perfect day for a motorcycle ride!