ChangeofSeasonsWX

Looks like Donna

I would put 1938, Hazel, Sandy, and Fiona all into the same category. All four took that unusual left hook track late in the season and they all intensified rapidly and had crazy trough interactions.

That would be fun. Or maybe a Hazel-type storm into New England.

Yeah you just can't win in New England when it comes to weather boredom. We don't get canes or severe like we used to so just have to enjoy the occasional downpour. Winter used to be the only season that wasn't boring but now it doesn't even stay cold anymore in the winter like it used to and snow is less frequent. We got very lucky in the 2010s with snowfall and now the 2020s are the new 1980s.

Back when I wasn't as knowledgeable about climo I always used to assume that New England got more hurricane hits than Atlantic Canada since they are further north and waters are cooler. However, now I realize that since Atlantic Canada sticks out directly in the path of recurves they get hit much more often. The timing of that ridge/trough interaction has to be just right in order for a small land area like New England to get hit. It really is like threading a needle.

In this area of the country you probably have better odds of winning the lottery than getting directly hit by a hurricane in any given year. That's how it seems anyways, I mean considering how we are now at 33 years and counting without a direct hit. Before the 1938 hurricane, 42 years had passed since a hurricane had hit New England, so we could potentially go another decade or longer without a hurricane landfall.

I wasn't drawing comparison to the impact, just the track.

Everyone is focused on the Atlantic (with good reason), but soon-to-be Typhoon Maria in the WPAC has caught my attention. Most of the major models have it taking an unprecedented track with a sharp left hook into Japans east coast. It kind of reminds me of Sandy in that sense. I believe that Typhoon Mac in 1989 and Typhoon Lionrock in 2016 are the only other typhoons to make landfall along Japans east coast, north of Tokyo, but neither one made as sharp of a turn as what Maria is expected to make.

I was talking about snowstorms mostly. The 2010s from what I've heard were anomaly unfortunately. The 2020s are like what the 1980s were for snow....except that it's not even cold like it was in the 80s. Just nasty drizzle and fog for four months. In terms of cutters, unless November 1950 comes walking through that door, it's not even that exciting either. A couple of good gusts for an hour or so and that's it. But it's all we have to look forward to in terms of weather in the winter now. Summer has always been boring except for the rare hurricane or tornado. New England doesn't get the same extremes that other areas of the country get.

Might as well live in San Diego at this point given how boring the weather has been lately. We don't get hurricanes anymore. We don't get wind or good thunderstorms anymore either. Winter is our most exciting season around here but even that hasn't produced any good storms in recent years. Even England gets better windstorms than us. Nova Scotia gets great storms too.

One of my dads first memories was of Connie/Diane. He was living in Naugatuck, CT and his house was at the top of a hill so it didn't get flooded. He said that there were helicopters airlifting people off of their homes and he could see it from up on the hill.

Hopefully we get a tor in N Seekonk this time. I'm just south of N Attleboro and always wanted to see one. No higher than EF0 though please. Just seeing the winds change direction would be cool.

Last night was entertaining but nothing crazy around here like what some other areas saw. We briefly lost power but it came back on right away. Maybe a couple of brief 40-45 mph gusts. The 8/4/15 macroburst was much more impressive in RI/SEMA.

Thankfully 1938 was at least a 1 in 400 year storm based on available data. The last storm of that magnitude was in 1635. So odds are very high that we will never experience something that severe in any of our lifetimes.

There are just way too many modes that result in failure when it comes to high end severe in NE. I mean the last real derecho event was maybe July 1995? Similar to the last hurricane in 1991. May 1998 derecho was in upstate NY mostly. Plus, since the Great Barrington tornado in 1995, the only EF3+ we have had was in 2011. It really seems like high end severe is less common than it used to be around here for whatever reason.

We had an EML in place that day though. Comparing any other severe weather event in New England to 6-9-53 is like comparing a severe weather event in the Southeast to 4-27-11. We may never see either one of those setups again in our lifetimes.

Contrary to what many might expect it's actually pretty uncommon to get high-end heat in June, outside of maybe the last week of the month. Forget about triple digits, it's hard to even reach the upper 90s in June. The last high-end June heat wave that I can recall was June 8-10, 2008. PVD reached 97F on 6/9; just 1F shy of the all time monthly record. That was in early June which made it even more unusual. I remember they had an early dismissal from schools that day for the kids in many areas which was pretty unprecedented. I would take the under on getting anything past like 95 or 96 for most of SNE.

Yeah I remember having this discussion several months ago about how it seems like our record high maxes are moderating. Not sure if it's just a cycle that we are in or if it's related to climate change. Seems like more moisture in the air and higher dews leading to more records mins and fewer record maxes. There are many other factors of course but that is a big part of it.

Hyperbole much? Lol I mean I love breaking records too but this definitely won't be something that none of us have ever experienced. At least not here in SNE. We see low to mid nineties with high dews on a pretty regular basis in the summer, even for extended periods of time.

Yeah I can definitely already see it as well. As per usual in SNE, we get hot enough to make things miserable but not enough to break records. Its always some small unforseen factor that prevents us from reaching triple digits like high dews, southerly wind component, etc. July 2011 was probably the most recent biggie around here.

I wonder if this area will ever get an event similar to what the Pacific NW saw in June 2021. Prior to that event, the all time record maxes for many of those areas were below the record maxes for many locations around here.

Yeah July 2011, 1995 and 1991 were definitely pretty hot, but not as extreme as August 1975 and July 1911, which were all timers in a league of their own. It's very rare to get a synergistic event of that caliber. The departures for the April 1976 heat wave were pretty wild. 98F on April 19th at PVD. If those anomalies had occurred in July it would've beat out 1975 and 1911.

Yeah unfortunately it seems like this is what usually happens with these heat waves. When was the last time this area had a real synergistic heat event? Hot Saturday maybe? Would be fun to break some records.

This is true, which is why I rank 6/9/53 as number one, besides the fact that it was by far the deadliest tornadic event in New England history, it produced a possible F5, as well as two other F3's that day. July 1989, May 1998, and June 2011 are high on the list also, but none of those events (not even 1953) compare to the 1944 Appalachian outbreak, which had 3 F3's and 3 F4's, or the May 31, 1985 outbreak with a whopping eight F4's and one F5. May 31, 1985 was actually one of the most violent outbreaks anywhere in the US, so I can't really imagine an outbreak of that magnitude ever occuring in New England, however I definitely think something on par with 1944 is possible here.

Yeah either a violent EF4 in a sparsely populated part of NE, (first in the region since May 1995) or a hurricane/major hurricane hit is the only thing that would make up for the abysmal winter we just had. Something exciting around here for a change please. I don't count the earthquake which I didnt even feel or the eclipse either, which didn't come close to totality in my area.