LakePaste25

If it is not going to snow in December then I hope we get a December 2015 type outcome so I can enjoy the nice weather outdoors. December 2023 was not ideal, because it was still hostile for snow but it was in the 30s most days.

All super ninos have featured below normal snowfall here - a 15-16 outcome vs 97-98 doesn’t make a difference for me as they both had roughly 60-80” on the season. There will always be brief cold shots on the backside of winter and sometimes even very short ones in december if we’re lucky, although december is typically the most hostile.

Yeah. I fully believe mostly warm temps and strong or super. I see the difference between basin wide vs EP as “do we get a couple of more cold intrusions on the back side of winter to try to get something to phase with that supercharged southern stream, or is it extremely limited like 97-98?” It’s really not a question that can answered by even the most skilled mets this early on IMO.

Yup. 15-16 is a good example of a super that starts out east-based before going basin wide approaching winter.

Seriously, can we get out of the stone age and allow “x” links so we don’t need to change them to twitter for them to embed? I know this is possible because there are other invision forums that have updated to allow this.

Anyone have any summer analogs for this (el nino standing wave competing with e atlantic/african standing wave)?

Can really see how things start to diverge in terms of position of the warmest SSTa’s after December. With Nino 1+2 warmth (east-based), Jan and Feb are also warm. With Nino 3.4, the correlation starts to break in Feb. With Nino 4 (central to west pacific), it actually correlated to a cold Feb. So while December is universally expected to be mild regardless, whether we get a backloaded winter or near wall to wall torch is based on whether the anomalies are focused on the Eastern Pacific vs Central.

CANSIPs shows lingering nina-like convection in the maritime continent, while the CFS shows a classic nino response that slowly propagates eastward into winter.

Incredible how different the Jan 2016 cold shots were vs. the Jan 2024. Jan 2024 was much more Nina-like, and probably why there wasn’t a big snowstorm in the mid atlantic or NE. They both had the roaring southern stream like you’d expect for a Nino but mismatched at 500 mb heights.

Interesting. 1972 was one of the coolest summers on record here.

I imagine summer in the east will be on the milder, wetter, and more humid side

I see it has some split forcing showing up with some lingering convection in the west pacific. Also appears to be more basin-wide. I agree - i think a +TNH outcome like that is probably overkill even if there’s split forcing.

Correct, nothing publicly available as far as I know

The new Conventional Observation Reanalysis that’s supposed to replace it only has the raw data available (https://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/core/) which is annoying since I haven’t found any custom built code that plots it yet

14-15. Models went strong or super to begin with. But that one hinged on strong WWBs in the summer and early autumn that never materialized. This one is building much earlier.