LakePaste25

One thing about using RONI vs. ONI is you have to be consistent. If you’re going to use RONI to say that the Nino isn’t going to be as strong, you also need to say that 24-25 and 25-26 were weak to moderate Nina’s, not neutral.

23-24 reached super criteria based off of traditional ONI, which peaked at +2.1C for NDJ. Using the new RONI however, it peaked at moderate to strong.

Agreed. La Nina’s generally being drier east of the appalachians would probably be a true statement however. Northern stream dominated systems that get shredded by the mountains.

Correct, March 2012 probably becomes a once per generation event at most under 2C. Would need way more warming for that to even get a return interval of once per decade. Unfortunately for winter weenies, December 2015 style winter warm events do become far more frequent under 2C. Once per decade at least.

The reverse of this also exists. A nino-style pacific jet extension that blasts warm air into Canada and the E US typically correlates to a weak +PNA.

i’ll just agree to disagree that the weak nino classification itself matters more than the SSTAs. 18-19, 19-20 were also weak ninos. yea, i agree that weak ninos, on average, tend to have the favorable central pacific SSTAs that produces good winters for boston. also when i say “traditional standards” i’m referring to canonical east based.

14-15 was hardly a nino and didn’t really fit the traditional standards of one (if it did then DCA would have had a far better season than BOS). the reason it was less of an analog IMO was because it had a warm pool spanning into Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 which really helps with late winter -epo development. just how i look at it, people can disagree here.

one thing i learned is that every springlike warm pattern is just like Feb 2018 and March 2012. Every Nina is just like 1995-1996, and every Nino will be like 1976-1977, 2004-2005, and 2014-2015

Sustained blizzard conditions (so far) at EWR.

Who is ready for more winter at the end of March?

cold arctic/warm mid latitudes pattern we saw back in 2020.

yeah i agree with this. i might have recency bias but getting a somewhat cold and snowy march here tends to correlate to a warm april, and the other way around: 2025: torch in march, cold rainy april 2024: very late season cold/snowy after mid march, record warm april 2023: SSW leading to cold and snowy march, a stretch of very nice weather (including 80+ days) in april 2022: little snow in march, cool and rainy april the all-timer was of course the historic march 2012 warmth which caused record earliest leaf-out, then lead to multiple freezes in april that damages a lot of plants and other crops. i’d be happy with a repeat of spring 2024, but that was a strong nino.

i’m fine with spring warmth. 40s feel like heaven here after that cold snap. obviously can’t really say i am done with snow here though because march can be quite wintery here in the great lakes.

That baja ridging is going to be key if we are getting any help with blocking on the atlantic side.

May be lingering effects, but it’s safe to say that La niña is done for.