LakePaste25

I imagine summer in the east will be on the milder, wetter, and more humid side

I see it has some split forcing showing up with some lingering convection in the west pacific. Also appears to be more basin-wide. I agree - i think a +TNH outcome like that is probably overkill even if there’s split forcing.

Correct, nothing publicly available as far as I know

The new Conventional Observation Reanalysis that’s supposed to replace it only has the raw data available (https://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/core/) which is annoying since I haven’t found any custom built code that plots it yet

14-15. Models went strong or super to begin with. But that one hinged on strong WWBs in the summer and early autumn that never materialized. This one is building much earlier.

Crank up those lawnmowers

One thing about using RONI vs. ONI is you have to be consistent. If you’re going to use RONI to say that the Nino isn’t going to be as strong, you also need to say that 24-25 and 25-26 were weak to moderate Nina’s, not neutral.

23-24 reached super criteria based off of traditional ONI, which peaked at +2.1C for NDJ. Using the new RONI however, it peaked at moderate to strong.

Agreed. La Nina’s generally being drier east of the appalachians would probably be a true statement however. Northern stream dominated systems that get shredded by the mountains.

Correct, March 2012 probably becomes a once per generation event at most under 2C. Would need way more warming for that to even get a return interval of once per decade. Unfortunately for winter weenies, December 2015 style winter warm events do become far more frequent under 2C. Once per decade at least.

The reverse of this also exists. A nino-style pacific jet extension that blasts warm air into Canada and the E US typically correlates to a weak +PNA.

i’ll just agree to disagree that the weak nino classification itself matters more than the SSTAs. 18-19, 19-20 were also weak ninos. yea, i agree that weak ninos, on average, tend to have the favorable central pacific SSTAs that produces good winters for boston. also when i say “traditional standards” i’m referring to canonical east based.

14-15 was hardly a nino and didn’t really fit the traditional standards of one (if it did then DCA would have had a far better season than BOS). the reason it was less of an analog IMO was because it had a warm pool spanning into Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 which really helps with late winter -epo development. just how i look at it, people can disagree here.

one thing i learned is that every springlike warm pattern is just like Feb 2018 and March 2012. Every Nina is just like 1995-1996, and every Nino will be like 1976-1977, 2004-2005, and 2014-2015

Sustained blizzard conditions (so far) at EWR.