LakePaste25

The end of run EPS are showing signs of a Nino-like pacific jet extension, bringing the risk of mild temperatures across North America. Depending on how this shakes out, it could bring our first shot of spring-like temperatures, particularly the interior/areas not subject to CAD. If it verifies less extended (stops short of the west coast), then we likely continue to see colder than normal temperatures. There are currently mixed and competing ensemble signals in regards to this.

Yeah exactly. The longer the fetch across water the better. Of course you still generally need cyclonic flow, but a weak clipper or a storm passing offshore over the atlantic would probably be enough to do that. A developing 50/50 low lodged under a block would produce it for several days.

In Japan, it’s usually cold air advection driven ocean effect snow, similar to lake effect snow off the great lakes. Far easier to get that when you’re east of a large body of water as opposed to the Atlantic where you need the southern and northern stream to phase and a favorable storm track, otherwise it’s mostly cold and dry.

The second half of February has some potential with signs of blocking showing up. We will need to see how the pacific pattern evolves.

On a positive note, the upcoming pattern will provide potential relief to the drought-stricken portions of the region.

Yeah if we lose that -EPO/western AO ridging by mid month, we will have our first legit torch period.

There should be continued snow chances in the Northeast as long as every vort that drops in from the Pacific is not getting buried in the southwest. Whether they cut, go inland or go coastal depends on individual tracks and wave spacing.

Probably not until mid Feb when we see a more sustained SE ridge torch pattern. Prior, I would go with up/down thermals.

I wonder if they see something that other’s don’t. This year made sense because we almost always swing to Nina after a strong Nino. But next year seems less certain until we cross the spring predictability barrier.

While I happen to be doing fine with lake effect, 135” on the season (well above normal), and snow cover since thanksgiving weekend, others in this region that do not receive much lake effect snow have felt that they have been stuck in the freezer with few synoptic snow opportunities other than dry clippers that bring some light accumulations. A warmer and wetter pattern, even if it runs the risk of rain, seems to be what is wanted. Also, Lake Erie is freezing over, so I would not mind an active pattern myself.

One of the reasons I’d argue why this winter is less snowier outside of the lake effect and upslope mountain regions is the H5 pattern. Compared to 13-14, the mean long wave trough axis is further east.

While certainly it’s on the table, a ridge south of the aleutians (mild pattern in the northeast) is not set in stone or guaranteed at this point.

I also feel the same way. Also, aren’t canonical Nina’s usually dry for Cali? People had snow up to their roof out there in 22-23. I view a canonical Nina as a GOA (not Aleutian) ridge. This is why I would rarely forecast a deep -PNA/SE ridge all winter long just because it’s a Nina. Also, I should mention that 22-23 would have had a cold January in the east, if not for a strong/super Nino-like pacific jet extension lasting until week 2 that extended all the way to the west coast and required several variables to line up for that to occur, and nobody could have reasonably predicted that to occur on a seasonal or subseasonal scale.

A prominent climate change denial account is using the historic winter storm in GA to downplay the effects or impact of climate change. Winters at ATL have been rapidly warming:

Sure it will get cold, but storms can cut with a -EPO if there’s no +PNA. Remember that historic blizzard in Buffalo in December 2022? That started with a huge cutter and -EPO. For the coast, it was a cutter followed by cold and dry.