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LakePaste25

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About LakePaste25

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KERI
  • Location:
    Waterford, PA

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  1. LakePaste25
    Here are the 850s for that same loop:
  2. LakePaste25
    That’s not modeling a retrograde. You can clearly see the secondary center of LP N of HI moving east to replace it. The eastward end is just getting smoothed out. Come on now. The entire wave pattern is literally locked in.
  3. LakePaste25
    Yup, right on schedule
  4. LakePaste25
  5. LakePaste25
    Classic CAD. In theory it should be more likely in El Niño due to less SE ridging.
  6. LakePaste25
    Like I said, we need to ditch the +WPO. Probably as we approach mid November would my guess, once the Siberian High can flex east of the Himalayas while the MJO exits the Indian Ocean. Would force a more equatorward pac jet and an organized Aleutian/GOA Low.
  7. LakePaste25
    Need to get rid of that +WPO. Always bad news for Ninos, let alone any ENSO.
  8. LakePaste25
    Pac jet will likely move equatorward sometime in mid to late November. If this were a Modoki or neutral we would be gearing up for the classic +TNH/-EPO/+PNA and a cold pattern in the east, but since it’s a super nino it will extend into Cali and that’s way too far east for us.
  9. LakePaste25
    That’s not to say convection won’t be west of the 30C warm pool at times (i explained this a couple days ago), but i wouldn’t declare victory for winter because models aren’t showing convection maxing in 1+2, where it doesn’t really max out there to begin with.
  10. LakePaste25
    Convection doesn’t really max out in Nino 1+2, ever. If the center of convection did, we would be talking the most east based event physically possible, rather *just* the most east based event on record.
  11. LakePaste25
    I’m with snowman on the MC convection idea. It’s been at near 0 since the summer, not sure why we would expect it to fire up again this winter. Will it be absolute 0? probably not due to the MJO, but it’ll be heavily suppressed just like phase 8 is during La Niña.
  12. LakePaste25
  13. LakePaste25
    Weeklies really get that active southern stream going in early November:
  14. LakePaste25
    Fair to say that just like 1997 was, it’s the strongest and most east-based of the satellite era. But one can also say that this one is a league of its own (even stronger and even more east based) and probably comparable to 1877-78 or the 1790s el niño.
  15. LakePaste25
    If there are 1-2 major snow events this winter, it won’t have much to do with the PDO IMO.
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