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LakePaste25

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About LakePaste25

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KERI
  • Location:
    Waterford, PA

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  1. LakePaste25
    Hopefully CAD doesn’t ruin the Christmas torch. If its going to be mild or warm, I want BBQ and pool weather
  2. LakePaste25
    Good money if you can get it
  3. LakePaste25
    Can’t wait for the UAH spike. going to be a rough year for the deniers.
  4. LakePaste25
    Yes, most climate models have us getting more frequent el niño events in the long term. Major caveat though - it will likely take stronger events to overcome W Pac forcing/warm pool so more Ninos doesn’t necessarily translate to more Aleutian Lows 1:1.
  5. LakePaste25
    I do think we should still shy away from “recent nino events have featured a persistent W pac warm pool, so this one will too.” I think it’s a forecasting trap. Probably true that we deal with it much more frequently, but i don’t believe there’s enough evidence to suggest it’s a permanent feature. It’s very possibly we get clean canonical forcing by the fall. In fact I think we are on track to see that. It will just take stronger events such as this one to start seeing it.
  6. LakePaste25
    Yeah, same reason we differentiate between 1991-2020 normals vs absolute records. When we want to know a thermal pattern it’s helpful to use the 30 yr normals, but it doesn’t make sense to say “this heatwave is the biggest temperature departure on record” because it’s pretty arbitrary. We use absolute values for that.
  7. LakePaste25
    I mean aren’t mid latitude ridges expanding due to global warming regardless? The SE ridge is also getting stronger and more expansive despite La Nina’s being weaker on the absolute ONI scale…so I do not know if this is exclusive to RONI vs ONI.
  8. LakePaste25
    There’s different uses for both. If you’re comparing the Nino 3.4 to historical rankings or you want to see how much heat is being released into the atmosphere then yes, the absolute ONI should be used. But if you’re trying to measure a sensible mid latitude response then you would use RONI.
  9. LakePaste25
    Why would I even look at what models are showing next winter with more than a grain of salt when it’s only June? I am focused on how this is developing and summer analogs. I will check on that in October.
  10. LakePaste25
    Yeah but this shiny looking map says I’m going to have near normal temps 6 months from now in december in a record breaking super nino
  11. LakePaste25
    I imagine most of that will be rain, but there’s always the chance for a big snow storm just like in 15-16, 82-83, etc
  12. LakePaste25
    Looking at RONI, you can see a pretty clear and distinct El Niño and it’s only June!
  13. LakePaste25
    Latest Euro seasonal gets the enhanced coastal precipitation going as early as September.
  14. LakePaste25
    We can probably assume that the W pac warm pool will finally slosh east if those model output verify. You don’t get a +4C ONI Nino without it doing so.
  15. LakePaste25
    I agree, but verbatim the model run posted is not a classic +PNA/-EPO look that we tend to see in weaker Ninos. There may be periods of it, however which could be factored in the ensemble mean. I just wouldn’t take those blues in the South as “winter-like cold that supports snowfall most of the month.”
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