Jump to content

LakePaste25

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,353

  • Joined

  • Last visited

About LakePaste25

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KERI
  • Location:
    Waterford, PA

Recent Profile Visitors

4,291 profile views
  1. LakePaste25
    I mostly didn’t pay too much attention to summer NH coupling for a reason and focused on SH cool season coupling.
  2. LakePaste25
    Everything is playing out like I envisioned with this record breaking event. We will be relying on that convection moving west after December. Hopefully we can squeeze in a lake effect event in November.
  3. LakePaste25
    It’s way out there, but the long range AI EPS shows a more east-shifted version of even the 1+2 correlation for October. But, this is also the most East-based El Niño on record, so it would make some sense to see a pattern shifted further east than what we would typically see.
  4. LakePaste25
    The +EPO is, but the H5 itself is not entirely cool ENSO flavored however, as the low is displaced SW will of BC into the GOA.
  5. LakePaste25
    Getting there…seeing less and less N Pac -ENSO flavored ridging out there. Does seem it’s possible we might go straight from cool ENSO pattern to full blown super Nino style (cool season) jet extension at some point between now and mid November.
  6. LakePaste25
    I agree with this. A lot of emphasis in this thread about the -PDO but I think the Arctic had much to do with it. In any sense it likely enhanced the -PDO over the summer.
  7. LakePaste25
    If CFS is going off how NOAA is calculating it, that model output makes more sense. Interesting to see the difference as Cyclonicwx’s is closer to Australian BOM’s RONI measurement.
  8. LakePaste25
    Can really see the difference here: Both had convection pretty far east, but 1983 was more concentrated just east of the dateline during February, while 1998 had more periods of Eastern Pacific forcing.
  9. LakePaste25
    I imagine this will go back up. RONI is already at +2.5 and while I am aware this is a daily index compared to a 3 month mean, it is only September and we likely have 2-3 more months until the peak. I am thinking the 3 month mean will be closer to 3-3.3
  10. LakePaste25
    ok, but your original comment that I reacted to implied that it’s only coupled in the tropics, which isn’t true.
  11. LakePaste25
    Trying to figure out when this region became the tropics.
  12. LakePaste25
    BOM updated with a +3.8C RONI. Might be too high, but it will easily get above +3C on the monthly mean.
  13. LakePaste25
    Very close to beating the all-time record warmest SST in the Nino 3.4 region.
  14. LakePaste25
    Still not sold on the PDO having any meaningful influence this cool season. But time will tell.
  15. LakePaste25
    Ah yes. The famous -PDO of September 2015 that was actually positive.
×
×
  • Create New...