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LakePaste25

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About LakePaste25

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KERI
  • Location:
    Waterford, PA

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  1. LakePaste25
    CRW is already at +1.2
  2. LakePaste25
    PV aside, if we can shift that warm pool east it’ll allow for some brief periods of -EPO/+TNH during jet retractions. We missed out on that during ‘23-‘24 because W pac forcing instantly reverted us to the canonical Aleutian ridge La Niña pattern whenever the jet retracted.
  3. LakePaste25
  4. LakePaste25
    So far this is preventing us from having a cooler summer. The summers of 1997, 1982, 1972 were well below normal here. We will see if this competing forcing will continue into the fall.
  5. LakePaste25
    why is snowman 5 posted? i dont see how busted warm calls are any different than metfan’s busted april snow maps. Are people that sensitive they can’t handle someone making warm forecasts?
  6. LakePaste25
    More like I want the W pac warm pool to completely shift east so we can have better synoptic snow the following winters. A mid +2c super nino that probably ends up with a warm winter anyway won’t do the job. Might as well go for the full historic, make this the sacrificial lamb and see if we can get good patterns the years after
  7. LakePaste25
    Ensembles really want to hang onto this W pac forcing too. Competing Nina influence for the foreseeable future.
  8. LakePaste25
    Hopefully CAD doesn’t ruin the Christmas torch. If its going to be mild or warm, I want BBQ and pool weather
  9. LakePaste25
    Good money if you can get it
  10. LakePaste25
    Can’t wait for the UAH spike. going to be a rough year for the deniers.
  11. LakePaste25
    Yes, most climate models have us getting more frequent el niño events in the long term. Major caveat though - it will likely take stronger events to overcome W Pac forcing/warm pool so more Ninos doesn’t necessarily translate to more Aleutian Lows 1:1.
  12. LakePaste25
    I do think we should still shy away from “recent nino events have featured a persistent W pac warm pool, so this one will too.” I think it’s a forecasting trap. Probably true that we deal with it much more frequently, but i don’t believe there’s enough evidence to suggest it’s a permanent feature. It’s very possibly we get clean canonical forcing by the fall. In fact I think we are on track to see that. It will just take stronger events such as this one to start seeing it.
  13. LakePaste25
    Yeah, same reason we differentiate between 1991-2020 normals vs absolute records. When we want to know a thermal pattern it’s helpful to use the 30 yr normals, but it doesn’t make sense to say “this heatwave is the biggest temperature departure on record” because it’s pretty arbitrary. We use absolute values for that.
  14. LakePaste25
    I mean aren’t mid latitude ridges expanding due to global warming regardless? The SE ridge is also getting stronger and more expansive despite La Nina’s being weaker on the absolute ONI scale…so I do not know if this is exclusive to RONI vs ONI.
  15. LakePaste25
    There’s different uses for both. If you’re comparing the Nino 3.4 to historical rankings or you want to see how much heat is being released into the atmosphere then yes, the absolute ONI should be used. But if you’re trying to measure a sensible mid latitude response then you would use RONI.
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