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LakePaste25

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About LakePaste25

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KERI
  • Location:
    Waterford, PA

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  1. LakePaste25
    We will see. I don’t deny that there could be *some* destructive interference. I’m just arguing that the event will be so strong and well-coupled that it won’t have a significant outcome that diverges from the canonical El Niño winter pattern (GOA low, strong southern stream, above normal N Tier, and wet S tier). 97-98 likely had constructive interference.
  2. LakePaste25
    OLR is exactly what you’d expect in July for an E based Nino. Note the convection going north as you go east…that’s consistent with climatology this time of year due to the Humboldt current which impacts Nino 1+2.
  3. LakePaste25
    15-16 was an oddball. Unusually strong MC forcing in december and in Jan/Feb the E Pac convection was unusually far north (failed to collapse near the equator as it’s supposed to do during winter), which actually enhanced Baja ridging as it was the descending branch of the Hadley Cell. Both of these factors helped contribute to the record warm December and the Mid Atlantic blizzard.
  4. LakePaste25
    My opinion is that it’s such a strong looking event that you leave less room for things such as the PDO to influence the pattern, especially when it can potentially flip. It’s still early in its development. Previous winters the ENSO state was fairly weak so there were more opportunities for competing influences to destructively or constructively interfere.
  5. LakePaste25
    I’m towards the “it’ll be a canonically coupled event” camp. And for the record I disagreed with takes during 24-25 and 25-26 that we’ll see predominate RNA pattern (we didn’t). So i’m not just saying it because I want it to be warm.
  6. LakePaste25
    It’s related to El Niño. It’s just a shifted pattern from past ones. My guess is the lack of arctic ridging (which is weakly correlated with +ENSO) and AGW are allowing the ridge to go further south and be much stronger.
  7. LakePaste25
    It’s free on Alex Boreham’s site (cyclonicwx.com) SST page. That second link I posted is from a forecaster that went and tabulated it for past ENSO events which isn’t paywalled either.
  8. LakePaste25
    Enso longtidue index. It’s a fairly new index that’s used to calculate the longitude in the tropical pacific (between 5N and 5S) where it’s most supportive of deep tropical convection regardless of actual SSTA. Threshold for deep tropical convection is dynamic year-year as it incorporates mean tropics SST. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL079203 There’s actually a page that calculates past events with it: https://ggweather.com/enso/eli.htm Looks like they assign the 97-98 event as the highest (note that the 220 peak is the same as 140W).
  9. LakePaste25
    ELI has already surpassed most of the historical events. i would expect this to go further east as that 30C isotherm moves east
  10. LakePaste25
    What a few of us have been saying on here:
  11. LakePaste25
    I’d argue against -PNA in general if we see less MC forcing. Even the extreme jet extensions under Eastern Pacific forcing are usually “bootleg” +PNA/+EPO as the Aleutian Low reaches the western US. Still mild for the NE. Then if forcing shifts back towards dateline, can get periods of +PNA/-EPO with actual cold air to work with.
  12. LakePaste25
    1877-78 is probably the closest to an extreme east based event. Unfortunately I cannot change the 1991-2020 climatology for this map (not an option), so you have to extrapolate that the anomalies in Nino 3 here were likely extreme for its time since the baseline SST’s have warmed since then.
  13. LakePaste25
  14. LakePaste25
    I converted these to VP anomalies. Basically the intense composite has stronger subsidence over the MC while the strong composite has stronger subsidence over S America. Makes sense.
  15. LakePaste25
    It’s basically a lower % of modoki forcing, so the SE US is NN instead of blue in the seasonal mean.
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