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LakePaste25

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About LakePaste25

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KERI
  • Location:
    Waterford, PA

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  1. LakePaste25
    I’d put the mid atlantic under “equal chances” IMO. Super Ninos are usually hit or miss there, dependent on 1 storm. It’s close to 50% likelihood given the sample size.
  2. LakePaste25
    CFS does have a 1983/1998 look to it, where we get - anomalies to the dateline. I don’t worry too much about Nino 1+2 or even much of Nino 3. What matters most to me is how far east we see suppressed convection. You’re pretty much never going to see heavy convection near 1+2 anyway.
  3. LakePaste25
    Yeah I’m feeling optimistic we can at least get to a point where convection shuts down in the MC, but still have work to do for getting suppression to the dateline. The interesting thing here is that 1983 and 1998 produced nearly identical results in OLR for the back half of winter but have different outcomes in the Eastern US. Goes to my original point I made awhile ago that KU events are a huge part “luck” and not to look too much into the exact placement of warm SSTAs for this. 1998 was close to one multiple times.
  4. LakePaste25
    I think the -PDO stays solidly negative until the early Fall when the pacific jet starts to climatologically strengthen for the season. At that point it will open the door for disruptions to it. The warming waters off the Western US does work against the -PDO but it’s obviously just one component of it.
  5. LakePaste25
    Yeah, there is still a 30C isotherm west of Nino 4. So it could spike again sometime between now and in the Fall before we actually start to see some real replacement upwelling in the W pac. This Nino has ways to go before it peaks. I also think some models that show 3.4 peaking in November are peaking it too early.
  6. LakePaste25
    This is what I was referring to. If this is how someone makes their seasonal forecast, you should immediately unsubscribe from them.
  7. LakePaste25
    They think ENSO is just some sliding scale where the warmest ENSO = no snow and less warm ENSO = more snow and anything that counters “warmest ENSO” means more snow. It’s not true, it’s much more nuanced as it has been discussed plenty of times in this very thread.
  8. LakePaste25
    I was asking about the contours in the rossby wave source map. Assuming those are 200mb ridges and troughs (with the opposite sign).
  9. LakePaste25
    Do you know what the solid red contours and the dashed blue contours mean? Trying to learn this.
  10. LakePaste25
    We will see. I’ll hold off until September because that’s when I would expect to start seeing some semblance of an Aleutian low.
  11. LakePaste25
    CFS has a nice “back loaded idea” with the Canadian block becoming a -NAO later in the season. Take it with a grain of salt. IF (big if) you’re going to get anything out of this season, this would be the way to do it.
  12. LakePaste25
    Looking at past OLR, it looks closest to 1997…maybe a tad west. It does have that broad convective signature across the basin.
  13. LakePaste25
    Yeah, I mean some of this is just noise from TCs. W pac basin was also active in 1997. Just not ready to blame it on this because nearly the entire N PAC basin has seen above normal heights outside the subtropics. We will see. I really want to see where we are at by September. It does seem TCs out there are forming a bit west of 1997.
  14. LakePaste25
    I must be missing something because I don’t see a ton of MC competition. I agree the N Pac is not exhibiting your typical response but I think it could be due to something else.
  15. LakePaste25
    The North Pacific is indeed the last quadrant to respond (possibly due to the arctic) but I think it wakes up to El Niño in due time. It is responding well everywhere else in the world (including the raging jet in the Southern Pacific).
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