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LakePaste25

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About LakePaste25

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KERI
  • Location:
    Waterford, PA

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  1. LakePaste25
    Is it not reasonable to go warm in the GL/NE for a super Nino? That’s common knowledge. It will be above normal in the mean. Sure we can discuss how it might not be an all out torch (and I think it can be prevented given that we might shut down MC convection), but above normal is an easy call.
  2. LakePaste25
    Yeah other than that 2 week stretch in late January/early February the cold wasn’t really that impressive. Same with 2024-25. Just normal cold that we used to get much more frequently. The snow was decent though.
  3. LakePaste25
    I know NMME has an amplitude bias with ENSO but still…even if it were a half a degree cooler, that is still crazy.
  4. LakePaste25
    agreed. We can only predict the aspects of El Niño that I like (such as the strong STJ), not the things I don’t like (the warmth). The warmth we will just have to wait and see.
  5. LakePaste25
    Latest NMME mean
  6. LakePaste25
    I would expect lingering Nino 1+2 warmth well into next spring and summer. If I remember correctly, when 1+2 fails to cool down like that we usually get a weaker Nina rebound or just stay cold neutral. Would have to look more into the data.
  7. LakePaste25
    Is there anything at this point between now and October that could stop this from becoming the Wilma of El Nino events? Seems like it’s becoming so well coupled in the tropics that that there really isn’t.
  8. LakePaste25
    snowman got too worked up over these people and let them get to him. It’s more fun to talk about warm anomalies and trigger them. Gotta roll with it. And the cool thing about it is we get brand new maps with red everywhere every other month, so I am constantly supplied with new material.
  9. LakePaste25
    I’m actually not dismissing them anymore. I dismissed the CANSIPs early on because it derived the colder look from Modoki SSTAs in the tropical pacific, and Modoki isn’t happening so I tossed it. But the Euro looks better now *despite being even stronger and more east based*, so now we have to wonder if the a strongly suppressed cell over the W Pacific (due to extreme E based nature) will help. It makes sense to me in theory.
  10. LakePaste25
    I can also see that it went warmer in Alaska/PNW. So, whenever the jet does retract, it could be modeling periods of -EPO/+TNH rather than an MC forcing induced Aleutian ridge. Notice that 850 Aleutian low actually got colder/stronger, not weaker as well. So it could just be forecasting more “all flavors of ENSO” rather than “La Niña like interferences.”
  11. LakePaste25
    I don’t deny that it could verify warmer than what the Euro is showing. The Aleutian Low/SE trough are not as cold in those areas as pre-2000s Ninos, I get it. The point I’m making is due to the fact that it’s record breaking, the odds of seeing a Jan 2024 type pattern (arctic cold dumping from the NW US, a parade of Great Lakes cutters) and Dec 2015 (more cutters) are lower, because if any Nino event is going to shut down the forcing that caused these to happen, it will be this one.
  12. LakePaste25
    Makes sense to me. A stronger Nino would theoretically result in a stronger correlation to the canonical pattern that goes with it. That 23-24 map looks like it was showing warmer in both the W and SE compared to now which makes sense.
  13. LakePaste25
    While I may not agree with the Euro verbatim, it’s a perfect example of how a stronger Nino doesn’t always mean warmer. The August update increased the strength but went cooler.
  14. LakePaste25
    I wouldn’t dare predict a snowless winter. There’s no data to back that up. But I would place heavy bets on +3 or higher in terms of temp departures in the mean, locally.
  15. LakePaste25
    I will place a heavy bet that Nino 1+2 will once again, not cool off as we head into next spring. This is why I don’t yet think we swing back to a major La Niña. Cold neutral is once again on the table next year.
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