LakePaste25

i’ll just agree to disagree that the weak nino classification itself matters more than the SSTAs. 18-19, 19-20 were also weak ninos. yea, i agree that weak ninos, on average, tend to have the favorable central pacific SSTAs that produces good winters for boston. also when i say “traditional standards” i’m referring to canonical east based.

14-15 was hardly a nino and didn’t really fit the traditional standards of one (if it did then DCA would have had a far better season than BOS). the reason it was less of an analog IMO was because it had a warm pool spanning into Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 which really helps with late winter -epo development. just how i look at it, people can disagree here.

one thing i learned is that every springlike warm pattern is just like Feb 2018 and March 2012. Every Nina is just like 1995-1996, and every Nino will be like 1976-1977, 2004-2005, and 2014-2015

Sustained blizzard conditions (so far) at EWR.

Who is ready for more winter at the end of March?

cold arctic/warm mid latitudes pattern we saw back in 2020.

yeah i agree with this. i might have recency bias but getting a somewhat cold and snowy march here tends to correlate to a warm april, and the other way around: 2025: torch in march, cold rainy april 2024: very late season cold/snowy after mid march, record warm april 2023: SSW leading to cold and snowy march, a stretch of very nice weather (including 80+ days) in april 2022: little snow in march, cool and rainy april the all-timer was of course the historic march 2012 warmth which caused record earliest leaf-out, then lead to multiple freezes in april that damages a lot of plants and other crops. i’d be happy with a repeat of spring 2024, but that was a strong nino.

i’m fine with spring warmth. 40s feel like heaven here after that cold snap. obviously can’t really say i am done with snow here though because march can be quite wintery here in the great lakes.

That baja ridging is going to be key if we are getting any help with blocking on the atlantic side.

May be lingering effects, but it’s safe to say that La niña is done for.

What??

All 2m temp forecasts are the same though. It’s just how the anomalies are interpreted. Would agree that EPS are running slightly cold of GEFS/GEPS suites.

Happy to dig deeper into this. I always thought actual 2m temps were universal vs. the differing anomaly datasets.

Who said there was going to be a torch in Feb? Seems like a straw man.

I believe the ECMWF native site is still using 1981-2010 climate normals, while the wxbell site is using the warmer 1991-2020 normals. The actual 2m temps should be the same, but the newer 1991-2020 normals will appear colder because the baseline is warmer, which is what we should expect in a warmer climate. Raw 2m temps are produced by the models themselves. It’s up to what dataset you want to use for the anomalies.