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LakePaste25

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About LakePaste25

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KERI
  • Location:
    Waterford, PA

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  1. LakePaste25
    This is true, but tropical convection isn’t decided by absolute SSTs alone. It’s relative to global mean tropical SSTs. Assuming the negative SSTAs materialize in the W pacific, the gradient between the negative SSTAs and the 30C waters shifted east of the dateline is what matters. You can’t really use 2016 or 2024 as an analog for this because such a gradient did not exist, and thus the convection was still present well west of the dateline. If the CFS does not materialize, and the W pac SSTAs are not below normal or closer to normal, then there’s a stronger argument for more persistent convection well west of the Dateline.
  2. LakePaste25
    The CFS is starting to catch on to the idea of this event running its course (just like 97-98) with W pac cool anomalies showing up. This would be the first time in over a decade that we’ve seen this to a significant degree.
  3. LakePaste25
    I don’t think anyone here is saying it’s not going to snow, or that there won’t necessarily be a big storm. But I think it’s an easy call that next winter will be both warmer and wetter than the previous 2 winters on the coastal plain. Here on the Great Lakes, probably warmer and drier.
  4. LakePaste25
    Preliminarily, I think this event lands between +3.2 to +3.7 on the RONI. I will adjust accordingly as we get closer to October.
  5. LakePaste25
    Not to mention, -PDO usually works against cold and snow. Funny that it’s magically now something that we want lmao.
  6. LakePaste25
    Yeah, the cooling W pac kicking off trades and loss of equatorial ocean heat to the atmosphere always argues for this whenever we go super nino IMO.
  7. LakePaste25
    Yes, but they’re likely to be more correct this year, since the event will be so strong that it overwhelms all other competing signals. Broken clock rule.
  8. LakePaste25
  9. LakePaste25
    Can’t wait to pull the ERA-5 data next month on the Southern Pacific low for July. Could be the deepest we’ve seen it (relatively) in awhile.
  10. LakePaste25
    Important to note that this El Niño event will remove a lot of heat from the oceans (and into the atmosphere) if it materializes as record-breaking. This is one of the reasons why El Nino doesn’t preclude a strong La Niña, and ENSO itself acts more like a damped nonlinear recharge oscillator.
  11. LakePaste25
    Seems counterintuitive because wouldn’t heat being released in the tropics combined with a cold arctic strengthen the N Pacific low due to a greater contrast?
  12. LakePaste25
    Yeah which makes sense. It lags both from warmth going bottom-up in the tropics via instability/upper level divergence and from planetary scale baroclinicity aloft, which seasonally strengthens in late NH summer and early fall as the Arctic cold pool begins to develop.
  13. LakePaste25
    The lack of H5 over the central equatorial pacific does indicate a skew towards La Niña the last 20-30 years, which could also be contributing. I don’t have the research handy, but climate models argue that more frequent La Niña will not be the case long term. Possibly a temporarily aberration the past couple of decades. We are probably due for a major decadal regression the other way. Not necessarily right now, but it could happen eventually.
  14. LakePaste25
    IMO, I think of the PDO like snow cover. If a large area has deep snow cover (or lack thereof), it can enhance (or weaken) a polar high, which can impact an individual storm track. But it can only do so much. If you have a cutter going into ORD, snow cover in new england or the mid atlantic won’t stop it from cutting. And over time, as we know, those repeated cutters will weaken the snow cover. So think of the super Nino as the pattern driving the cutters, and the -PDO as the snow cover. The super Nino will continuously override it over time with a zonal jet until it flips to +PDO. I know this is not a perfect analogy because El Niños mean less cutters literally. But you get the idea.
  15. LakePaste25
    They exist on Tropical Tidbits, but they’re smoothed 5 day means. World view.
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