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LakePaste25

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About LakePaste25

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KERI
  • Location:
    Waterford, PA

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  1. LakePaste25
    So it’s already initialized too low? Toss IMO.
  2. LakePaste25
    This event is more east-based than 1997. 1997 had convection far west in July in particular.
  3. LakePaste25
    The MJO isn’t “avoiding” the IO/MC, it’s being suppressed by the descending branch of the hadley cell triggered by the Nino standing wave whenever it enters that region. If you use VP and OLR plots you can still see the MJO pass thru those regions in a very suppressed state. On the RMM plot, El Niño is overwhelming the signal.
  4. LakePaste25
    They tend to be pretty accurate with the big picture, as the MJO orbit is very predictable. Minor details, such as exact strength of the WWB, exact day (late sept or early oct) are more TBD and this won’t accurately predict that this far out.
  5. LakePaste25
    Probably another monster WWB in early october. Can see the MJO queued up for it in the IO towards the end of the EPS run.
  6. LakePaste25
    Yup. It’s consistent with it undershooting 1+2
  7. LakePaste25
    Right on schedule, the northern hemisphere pacific jet is set to seasonally strengthen and the ridging is nearly nonexistent. It’s possible we see the -PDO finally flip by next month. The stronger mid latitude jet and the coastally trapped kelvin waves going up the west coast will both act to flip the PDO to positive.
  8. LakePaste25
    there’s quite a few ski resorts out west that are below 7k’ and probably won’t do too well either. The higher up ones will def cash in just like the Andes are in Chile.
  9. LakePaste25
    Have a 6 hour layover at O’Hare before my flight to Erie so I decided to bounce and enjoy the nice day. 76/63
  10. LakePaste25
    Almost to +3C on CRW. CRW mostly measures surface temps, so at some point I would expect it to mix down which would increase OISST but decrease CRW.
  11. LakePaste25
    LFG! Been waiting for this to happen.
  12. LakePaste25
    It’s basically just leaning into a stronger signal for a canonical Nino pattern because the Nino itself is progged to be much stronger than 23-24.
  13. LakePaste25
    I’m sorry but this is just incorrect to say it’s not the warmest. You should specify that it’s not the highest relative Nino 3.4 index. To flat out say “it’s not the warmest” is incorrect. If my local airport reaches 101, that would be the warmest temperature on record, since the all-time record is 100. If i come up with some “relative temperature” it doesn’t change that fact. The fact still stands that Nino 3.4 is at its all time highest, and has been consistently.
  14. LakePaste25
    That area near Japan is probably cooked for the foreseeable future, which is one reason I would expect it to flip back to - next spring or summer. Too mu ch subsurface warmth there and a Nino for 1 year won’t eradicate that.
  15. LakePaste25
    It’s September. Other than CTKWs going up the west coast which takes care of a portion of the PDO, how else would an extratropical index flip without cool season extratropical storms? You need storms and an active cool season zonal jet to churn up that warm blob out in the middle of the N pac.
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