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LakePaste25

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About LakePaste25

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KERI
  • Location:
    Waterford, PA

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  1. LakePaste25
    I mean yeah, we are setting temperature records more due to global warming. But when considering records, I don’t consider the anomaly at all, I only consider absolute records. For example, if it is 105 degrees, I don’t consider that it’s a “record” +15 anomaly. I only consider the absolute temperature of the daily, monthly, and all-time record and whether that is lower or higher than 105. If global warming makes it easier to reach that record, that is just reality.
  2. LakePaste25
    RONI vs ONI are not important to me this year because both are well above the threshold for super on the daily index, and will be for the 3 month index eventually. for records, I only care about absolute SSTs. similar to how we measure record heatwaves based on setting the absolute temperature of say, 105 degrees, not the “record anomaly.” We are currently above record SSTs in the 3.4 region.
  3. LakePaste25
    Not really that crazy, october is typically cold in the east during Nino.
  4. LakePaste25
    Beautiful! going to be a crappy winter regardless so might as well root for the highest possible
  5. LakePaste25
    Close to Oct 1997 and 2015. The only difference is those years had more ridging north of the Bering sea. These were +PDO Ninos.
  6. LakePaste25
    As expected, the CFSv2 is going to be way off with Nino 1+2, forecasting a drop that never came.
  7. LakePaste25
    Yeah it’s not as simple as “if I have competing cool ENSO influences, I am subtracting from the super El Niño which makes the pattern better for the east.” By that logic, 2023-24 should’ve been cold but it wasn’t. I am actually disappointed that the -PDO keeps dropping further because that’s bad for us. Although I still maintain that the PDO won’t really matter so much in a season like this either way.
  8. LakePaste25
    I mostly didn’t pay too much attention to summer NH coupling for a reason and focused on SH cool season coupling.
  9. LakePaste25
    Everything is playing out like I envisioned with this record breaking event. We will be relying on that convection moving west after December. Hopefully we can squeeze in a lake effect event in November.
  10. LakePaste25
    It’s way out there, but the long range AI EPS shows a more east-shifted version of even the 1+2 correlation for October. But, this is also the most East-based El Niño on record, so it would make some sense to see a pattern shifted further east than what we would typically see.
  11. LakePaste25
    The +EPO is, but the H5 itself is not entirely cool ENSO flavored however, as the low is displaced SW will of BC into the GOA.
  12. LakePaste25
    Getting there…seeing less and less N Pac -ENSO flavored ridging out there. Does seem it’s possible we might go straight from cool ENSO pattern to full blown super Nino style (cool season) jet extension at some point between now and mid November.
  13. LakePaste25
    I agree with this. A lot of emphasis in this thread about the -PDO but I think the Arctic had much to do with it. In any sense it likely enhanced the -PDO over the summer.
  14. LakePaste25
    If CFS is going off how NOAA is calculating it, that model output makes more sense. Interesting to see the difference as Cyclonicwx’s is closer to Australian BOM’s RONI measurement.
  15. LakePaste25
    Can really see the difference here: Both had convection pretty far east, but 1983 was more concentrated just east of the dateline during February, while 1998 had more periods of Eastern Pacific forcing.
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