LakePaste25

those could be coming next fall from the same suspects LOL

The medium range appears to show a more canonical La Niña pattern than we’ve seen from previous La Niña winters this decade, with a ridge over the GOA, cold in interior western Canada spreading eastward through the Great Lakes. Recent La Niña winters have shown extreme displacement of the North Pacific ridge from what is the typical location, with 2022-2023 featuring the ridge very far west (over the Aleutians), resulting in extremely heavy seasonal snows in the Sierra Nevadas (La Nina is normally dry there). 2024-2025 featured the north pacific ridge displaced much further east than usual, resulting in very high +PNA values and is very atypical for La Niña. It’ll be interesting to see if we experience more extreme displacements of the typical La Niña pattern this coming decade.

I still do not see any pattern that supports major I-95 snow through mid december. Nothing will dig with this. You’re looking at light events/sliders. Still favors Great Lakes/Interior the most.

I think it’s a downstream consequence of re-establishing the equatorward pacific jet and rebuilding the -EPO.

I think you are looking good for at least a light-moderate event in the city within the next 2 weeks.

It did. The euro shows a more alternating waveguide (with EPS support). Fast pac jet with some systems bombing into AK while another amps up the ridge behind it. I can’t show the animation due to file size limits.

Are you referring to Margavage? His primary audience are people with an IQ < 70, and those who are completely unaware of how meteorology works. Wouldn’t worry too much about those people. A dime a dozen. Grifters. Agreed with @brooklynwx99’s take on the -WPO, but I could see a trough that is not as deep as what is shown if the +EPO verifies stronger. I also don’t see a full blown CONUS torch happening.

Yes, there’s research out there that the Indo-pacific warm pool can contribute to western ridging/eastern trough, sometimes even independent of ENSO. Lots of research out on this topic: https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/clim/29/22/jcli-d-16-0145.1.pdf https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/48389/noaa_48389_DS1.pdf

Walker circulation and yes. It’s why relative ONI (RONI) is used frequently here, because the eastern equatorial pacific warming relatively slower than the rest of the pacific is amplifying La Niña and also weakens the signal of El Niño to some extent. Walker circulation: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/walker-circulation-ensos-atmospheric-buddy

It is due to climate change. The trade winds unevenly distribute the warmer water to the western pacific. This phenomenon only temporarily bounces back during El Niño years, and doesn’t even fully do this anymore. It’s here to stay.

10-day ensemble mean for early to mid December looks decent. More favored here in the interior/lakes due to climo, but also can’t rule out one or two a small events and/or front-end for I-95. For you I-95’ers, Boston on N is probably more favored for a moderate event or greater. We will have to see how things evolve.

The effects of the SSW look to completely decouple from the surface (for now).

Yeah, there’s no doubt that the warming climate is increasing the size of the SE ridge regardless of whether it gets over or under modeled. Ridges are getting larger and the breadth of below normal temps from troughs is getting smaller. These are just facts. doesn’t mean it can’t snow or get cold though. But in terms of getting the colder temps, it’s like spinning a prize wheel with less winning spaces to land on.

Fair but we also don’t verify a forecast with a forecast.

The most anomalously cold air in the entire northern hemisphere will reside in Canada, allowing the northern tier of the Eastern US to stay somewhat cool despite the -PNA.