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LakePaste25

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About LakePaste25

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KERI
  • Location:
    Waterford, PA

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  1. LakePaste25
    Yeah that’s why in the most classic super Nino setups, the warmest anomalies occur the further north you go. 45-50 is below normal in Birmingham, but a major torch for INL.
  2. LakePaste25
    Impressive. -252m GOA low on an ensemble mean 294 hours out! But will it verify? I expect that low to shift south some as we progress into winter. This will result in lower heights for the SE but an even warmer Canada.
  3. LakePaste25
    The east based super Nino cool season composite is a deep GOA low and extended pacific jet December-March.
  4. LakePaste25
    Models keep it going far longer than “a few days.” Sure we can see if they verify first, but if it persists then it’s the December Nino pattern a full month early.
  5. LakePaste25
    Completely disagree.
  6. LakePaste25
    Yeah, for us anyway. I could still see areas in the upper Midwest that are further removed from CAD effects and coastals threatening records. I did make that distinction awhile ago. Of course places such as International Falls have very cold climates to begin with, so 50+ degrees is far more anomalous there.
  7. LakePaste25
    One reason I am starting to lean away from a December 2015 torch is that we should see a more active southern stream in the SE US. It will be “only” mild/warm. The lack of active southern stream in 12/2015 caused the typical Canadian ridge to go much further south compared to December 2024 or December 1997. Part of this will be due to lack of MC forcing and more E Pac forcing, which will help sustain a more active southern stream in the SE. So the same E based orientation that makes it more difficult to get snow will also make it more difficult to get a record 2015 torch.
  8. LakePaste25
    incredibly early in the season to be seeing this pattern.
  9. LakePaste25
    A strong “rebound” Nina isn’t guaranteed. cold neutral is on the table.
  10. LakePaste25
    A little more optimistic we could see a December 1997 like outcome rather than a full blown torch, but still need to see where this goes
  11. LakePaste25
    I can’t speak for people speaking in absolutes. My position/prediction is that the pattern will be unfavorable the vast majority of the time. Not going to sugar coat that part. Also won’t say “it won’t ever snow.” I don’t even do snow predictions on a seasonal scale, not my thing or main area of interest.
  12. LakePaste25
    i believe 15/16 the forcing started West in December. But we had a further west starting point (MC —> Dateline).
  13. LakePaste25
    December it was shifted west vs. Feb. The vortex getting backed up and tucked into Alaska was more favorable than over the GOA. Yea I know, there were other factors such as solar. But this added to it.
  14. LakePaste25
    shorter wavelengths can help pull the vortex west later in the season, but it’s also negated if the warm pool keeps shifting further east like it has been. Precisely why Feb 1998 didn’t get better.
  15. LakePaste25
    They’re just delaying the inevitable. It’ll happen, whether it’s the last week of October or sometime in November.
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