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LakePaste25

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About LakePaste25

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KERI
  • Location:
    Waterford, PA

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  1. LakePaste25
    ok, but your original comment that I reacted to implied that it’s only coupled in the tropics, which isn’t true.
  2. LakePaste25
    Trying to figure out when this region became the tropics.
  3. LakePaste25
    BOM updated with a +3.8C RONI. Might be too high, but it will easily get above +3C on the monthly mean.
  4. LakePaste25
    Very close to beating the all-time record warmest SST in the Nino 3.4 region.
  5. LakePaste25
    Still not sold on the PDO having any meaningful influence this cool season. But time will tell.
  6. LakePaste25
    Ah yes. The famous -PDO of September 2015 that was actually positive.
  7. LakePaste25
    Yeah for record highs in the winter at least, the classic way to do that around here is a Great Lakes Cutter tracking north and west of here. rainy/wet snow/slop mix coastals without cold air are more of a warm overnight low type of deal, and those are what I expect. December 2015 was the weird one because we actually did get lows going well NW despite being a super El Niño.
  8. LakePaste25
    Much of this winter warmth will likely be driven by overnight lows IMO due to the active pattern.
  9. LakePaste25
    Right now I’m leaning towards a fairly torchy winter with *maybe* 1 salvageable month on the back side where it’s just slightly above normal. Can’t really ignore that every analog that was supposed to give us below normal temps has busted warm thus far into mid september, and there’s no signs of October being cooler than normal yet.
  10. LakePaste25
    You can tell we are slowly getting to that warm ENSO state. Plenty of +U in the NH. Still some residual ridging out west of the Aleutians but even that’s weakening and probably flattens out with time.
  11. LakePaste25
    Officially crossed +3C on ONI and +2.5C on RONI!
  12. LakePaste25
    I’m a little more skeptical of the “back loaded Modoki” idea than I was a month ago given how this keeps evolving. What you’re saying is potentially we see an 82-83 outcome which was exactly that. Only issue is we are east of 82 and even 97 on tao/tritton so it’s difficult to just say go with “basin waters are warmer, so it’s further west” when you also have to account for the actual position of the warmest waters being further east. I think i don’t disagree yet but I need another month to see where OLR’s land vs 82 and 97.
  13. LakePaste25
    This was essentially just a slightly east-shifted version of the long term trends of summer in CONUS. The strongest El Niño on record was unable to shake it.
  14. LakePaste25
    To verify sure, there’s no requirement in how one gets there. It’s more about trusting the prognosis to begin with. Say it’s 100 in Atlanta. A model says starting tomorrow, we will see the forecast high drop 5 degrees every day for the next 6 days. So in a few days it’ll only get to 80 in Atlanta. It’s now tomorrow, and the high didn’t drop 5 degrees. It’s 99. Continue on to the next day, it’s 100 again. Why should I trust what the model is saying 3 weeks out when it’s making such a massive forecast error 2-5 days out?
  15. LakePaste25
    Further east and a much greater volume of warm water than 1997 with the 30C isotherm approaching 140W:
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