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LakePaste25

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About LakePaste25

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KERI
  • Location:
    Waterford, PA

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  1. LakePaste25
  2. LakePaste25
    97-98 was not half bad for the Great Lakes/SNE if i remember correctly. December ‘97 was decent here while it was a total shutout in 2015.
  3. LakePaste25
    CANSIPS now getting close to a +4C ONI peak…
  4. LakePaste25
    Part of this is because these ensembles are not very good at spotting troughs in the summer. They tend to over smooth. I think the N Pac will begin to organize by late August/early September.
  5. LakePaste25
    I think he’s referring to the GLAAM. Nonetheless, I’m sure I’ll wake up to another 10 posts here tomorrow about how it’s 5 degrees in longitude off from some height anomaly map from a century ago so it’s not el niño.
  6. LakePaste25
    N Pac finally waking up to El Niño? This is what you’d expect in the warm season (weak Aleutian Low that slowly deepens).
  7. LakePaste25
    Hope so, if it’s not going to snow then i want BBQ and shorts weather for the holiday
  8. LakePaste25
    La Niña or cold neutral is likely after any super Nino because the cold waters in the W pac propagate eastward/promote trades, and a lot of the ocean heat in the tropics is released into the atmosphere.
  9. LakePaste25
    Unironically, a fully coupled Nino could bring better KU chances than a half assed Nino like 23-24, which had a ton of forcing in the Maritime Continent. I’d absolutely gamble with a 97-98 type setup. Sure there will be a ton of demoralizing rainstorms with the perfect track, but all you need is 1 to phase with cold air.
  10. LakePaste25
    If it’s anything like 97-98 there will be a lot of coastal storms that are mostly rain.
  11. LakePaste25
    My early thoughts is we see a predominately bootleg +PNA/extended pac jet state in the mean that will occasionally retrograde to a -EPO/+TNH for brief periods. Still need to see where the Hadley cell will set up though.
  12. LakePaste25
    I don’t think it’s a cop out. If it statistically argues so (which is absolutely does for the mid Atlantic) there’s no reason to pretend that it doesn’t.
  13. LakePaste25
    I’d put the mid atlantic under “equal chances” IMO. Super Ninos are usually hit or miss there, dependent on 1 storm. It’s close to 50% likelihood given the sample size.
  14. LakePaste25
    CFS does have a 1983/1998 look to it, where we get - anomalies to the dateline. I don’t worry too much about Nino 1+2 or even much of Nino 3. What matters most to me is how far east we see suppressed convection. You’re pretty much never going to see heavy convection near 1+2 anyway.
  15. LakePaste25
    Yeah I’m feeling optimistic we can at least get to a point where convection shuts down in the MC, but still have work to do for getting suppression to the dateline. The interesting thing here is that 1983 and 1998 produced nearly identical results in OLR for the back half of winter but have different outcomes in the Eastern US. Goes to my original point I made awhile ago that KU events are a huge part “luck” and not to look too much into the exact placement of warm SSTAs for this. 1998 was close to one multiple times.
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