LakePaste25

All else aside, I prefer a warmer tropical western pacific and weak ENSO. There’s studies that show this combination alone can provide enough forcing for the pattern we saw in 13-14, 14-15, and this past winter.

NOAA makes post ad-hoc adjustments to stations when they are moved to account for difference in temperature. @chubbs can attest to this - for example, one of the warmest recording stations of the 20th century (Coatesville) was moved to a cooler, higher elevation location and adjustments were made accordingly.

I vote to keep this thread going. CC discussion (to some extent) is unavoidable when you’re talking about winter in the northeast. Only shut it down if it goes to constant back and forth arguing.

If I were to compare Dec/Jan ‘24-‘25 to Jan/Feb 2015, both patterns look similar at face value (+PNA/-EPO), but late Jan to Feb 2015 was a far snowier pattern for the northeast, with storms constantly bombing out over the benchmark. The thing that really stands out to me is that in 2015, the pacific jet was more equatorward (see that area of blue further south in the eastern pacific, area of orange in zonal wind). A more equatorward pacific jet is more favorable because it allows for more amplified ridging out west, allowing storms to dig.

The lake effect snow here and the record warm lakes earlier in the season is the only reason we did well here. Most of the clippers went north of here, which is fairly unusual in this type of +PNA/-EPO pattern. While that was cold enough for snow here, it did not allow much redevelopment east of the mountains, so the precip of these light to moderate clippers mostly fell apart by the time they reached the coastal plain. The further north track can probably be attributed to the stronger pacific jet as mentioned.

The end of run EPS are showing signs of a Nino-like pacific jet extension, bringing the risk of mild temperatures across North America. Depending on how this shakes out, it could bring our first shot of spring-like temperatures, particularly the interior/areas not subject to CAD. If it verifies less extended (stops short of the west coast), then we likely continue to see colder than normal temperatures. There are currently mixed and competing ensemble signals in regards to this.

Yeah exactly. The longer the fetch across water the better. Of course you still generally need cyclonic flow, but a weak clipper or a storm passing offshore over the atlantic would probably be enough to do that. A developing 50/50 low lodged under a block would produce it for several days.

In Japan, it’s usually cold air advection driven ocean effect snow, similar to lake effect snow off the great lakes. Far easier to get that when you’re east of a large body of water as opposed to the Atlantic where you need the southern and northern stream to phase and a favorable storm track, otherwise it’s mostly cold and dry.

The second half of February has some potential with signs of blocking showing up. We will need to see how the pacific pattern evolves.

On a positive note, the upcoming pattern will provide potential relief to the drought-stricken portions of the region.

Yeah if we lose that -EPO/western AO ridging by mid month, we will have our first legit torch period.

There should be continued snow chances in the Northeast as long as every vort that drops in from the Pacific is not getting buried in the southwest. Whether they cut, go inland or go coastal depends on individual tracks and wave spacing.

Probably not until mid Feb when we see a more sustained SE ridge torch pattern. Prior, I would go with up/down thermals.

I wonder if they see something that other’s don’t. This year made sense because we almost always swing to Nina after a strong Nino. But next year seems less certain until we cross the spring predictability barrier.

While I happen to be doing fine with lake effect, 135” on the season (well above normal), and snow cover since thanksgiving weekend, others in this region that do not receive much lake effect snow have felt that they have been stuck in the freezer with few synoptic snow opportunities other than dry clippers that bring some light accumulations. A warmer and wetter pattern, even if it runs the risk of rain, seems to be what is wanted. Also, Lake Erie is freezing over, so I would not mind an active pattern myself.