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LakePaste25

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About LakePaste25

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KERI
  • Location:
    Waterford, PA

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  1. LakePaste25
    I see this place has gone back to its usual cesspool of arguing whether it’ll be warm or cold rather than talking about ENSO and teleconnections. sad.
  2. LakePaste25
    Bank on it. If you look at @EasternLI’s H5 maps from 1877-78 (the extreme east based El Niño event) it’s basically a persistent -TNH from Nov-March.
  3. LakePaste25
    Granted, I don’t think it’s *too* far off with the monthly H5. But a Feb -EPO in the monthly mean probably isn’t happening IMO.
  4. LakePaste25
    We’re at the point where it *finally* initialized the next month (November) correctly as an east-based event. But once again it tries to go “super Modoki” the following months which I don’t think is accurate.
  5. LakePaste25
    The persistent GOA low and Hudson Bay ridge is basically -TNH. Basically the inverse of 2013-2014.
  6. LakePaste25
    womp womp
  7. LakePaste25
    The trade off here is that we probably avoid a December 2015-like outcome and instead see something closer to December 1997.
  8. LakePaste25
    oh yeah I agree with that. Deep cyclonic flow over there vs. solar irradiance in Florida. for the FL portion to contribute more to you need a deep arctic outbreak down there imo.
  9. LakePaste25
    What I mean is, this is in fact a +PNA. It may not look like one that we’re familiar with, but based on the coordinates it’s measured at, the SE trough, and positive height differential between Western Canada and the GOA all make it positive.
  10. LakePaste25
    PNA probably stays ++ all winter. Remember one of the measuring points lies in the SE US, so the SE trough combined with the GOA low centered just offshore of western Canada will keep it positive.
  11. LakePaste25
    PV warnings help generate -NAO blocks but keep in mind you still need cold air to block in. At minimum it should help keep the pattern stormy in the mid atlantic (along with the help of the Nino enhanced southern stream).
  12. LakePaste25
    Here we go. Massive extratropical WWB in the NH due to the N Pac cyclone. This will help flip the -PDO, and it’s why I say it’s a lagging indicator of ENSO, because the tropical coupling comes first, then the NHem coupling followed by the PDO.
  13. LakePaste25
    Nice to see Eric latch on to this idea! I’ve been saying this for awhile now and so has @40/70 Benchmark. The shutdown of MC forcing combined with stronger E pac forcing could enhance the eastward extent of the southern stream in the E US, which would keep the ridge further north in Canada.
  14. LakePaste25
    My peak of +3.2-3.7 RONI and +3.7-4.2 ONI prediction I made a couple of months ago is looking alright. Might have even gone a little too low.
  15. LakePaste25
    Guaranteed, take it to the bank that the vortex will not be even close to as west as 2009 in December in the monthly mean. The OLR coming out of the tropical pacific is already much further east-based.
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