LakePaste25

The correlation you’re showing makes sense, but I would add the caveat (in my opinion) that PNA doesn’t have as much of an influence on our summer compared to winter due to shorter wavelengths. You can have indexed - or + PNA that occupies different real estate that might give us a downstream ridge. I do think the NAO blocking however, has a big influence. Here’s two of our recent hotter summers for example (you can find plenty more), 2018 and 2021 which had a predominately +PNA, but also an upstream eastern US ridge. Not a lot of -NAO during both of those.

Not to derail the conversation, but one must also look at snowfall frequencies and amounts, i.e. climates that rely on “big dog” events versus those that rely on more frequent, smaller events to reach snowfall averages. Here, we are finding that cities such as Buffalo are not seeing the same regression to lower snowfall seasons as places like Syracuse, Erie, and Cleveland where all 3 cities are 5+ years in a row of below normal snowfall. Places that rely on more frequent smaller events are finding that the increase in moisture does not outweigh the decrease in # of events due to more frequent warm spells. For what it’s worth, I generally lump most of the I-95 cities into places that favor “big dog” events just like Buffalo, which means these areas can withstand some warming and even see increases in snowfall averages, simply because you don’t need it to be cold all winter to get these huge events. The 15-16 winter is a great example of this for NYC.

Winds and waves were roaring at Ripley Beach. Generally just 2-4” at my inland area but will stay very cold through this cold snap with temperatures struggling to get out of the teens during most of the week.

The last time that Caribou recorded less than an inch of snow on the ground was December 2010. In the same winter (2010-2011), EWR recorded 68.2” of snow.