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LakePaste25

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About LakePaste25

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KERI
  • Location:
    Waterford, PA

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  1. LakePaste25
    It’s basically just leaning into a stronger signal for a canonical Nino pattern because the Nino itself is progged to be much stronger than 23-24.
  2. LakePaste25
    I’m sorry but this is just incorrect to say it’s not the warmest. You should specify that it’s not the highest relative Nino 3.4 index. To flat out say “it’s not the warmest” is incorrect. If my local airport reaches 101, that would be the warmest temperature on record, since the all-time record is 100. If i come up with some “relative temperature” it doesn’t change that fact. The fact still stands that Nino 3.4 is at its all time highest, and has been consistently.
  3. LakePaste25
    That area near Japan is probably cooked for the foreseeable future, which is one reason I would expect it to flip back to - next spring or summer. Too mu ch subsurface warmth there and a Nino for 1 year won’t eradicate that.
  4. LakePaste25
    It’s September. Other than CTKWs going up the west coast which takes care of a portion of the PDO, how else would an extratropical index flip without cool season extratropical storms? You need storms and an active cool season zonal jet to churn up that warm blob out in the middle of the N pac.
  5. LakePaste25
    As I said yesterday, despite the “pause” in Nino 3.4 in August, it has become significantly more east-based regardless.
  6. LakePaste25
    Like yeah…the PDO might alter pacific storm tracks, but it’s on the scale of 0s to 10s of miles, not 100s to 1000s. Same way that Canadian snow cover might force baroclinicity southward, so an individual snowstorm might track over the turnpike rather than I-80. But it’s not going to stop a cutter from going to the Ohio valley. It’s a bit ridiculous that the PDO is being discussed so much in this thread when you actually have a record breaking Nino that *will* actually alter the long wave pattern by *thousands* of miles.
  7. LakePaste25
    The PDO index has none/negligible effect on the long wave pattern. There isn’t a really a reason to RONI it except for record keeping purposes. It’s a fully extratropical index.
  8. LakePaste25
    1+2 has been marching back upward and the 20C isotherm in the subsurface itself has still been pressing deeper in the 1+2 region (i can’t show the GIF here due to file size limits), so if anything it’s been getting even more east-based despite Nino 3.4 flattening. I am keeping an eye out for a sudden jump in 3.4 because of this.
  9. LakePaste25
    Sorry but I cannot justify using a model that can’t even initialize the El Niño at its *current* initial state correctly.
  10. LakePaste25
    I fully believe 97-98 was mostly bad luck for the I-95 cities despite a decent pattern at times. People get too caught up in the idea that it was bad just because just because it was the most east based.
  11. LakePaste25
    Doesn’t really show up on the H5.
  12. LakePaste25
    It was only 0.3 degrees warmer than 95-96 and 10-11. But the fact that 10-11 had much more -PNA shows that we need a more ideal pacific to produce the same cold.
  13. LakePaste25
    Yeah other than that stretch in late January, the last 2 winters featured just normal winter cold that we used to get much more frequently.
  14. LakePaste25
    OLR is solidly El Niño. Deepest convective anomalies are forecasted to be around 150-160W. Will need to keep an eye out for a N Pac low as we get into September.
  15. LakePaste25
    i expect below average snow in most of the Lake Erie climate sites this winter, as well as Lake America.
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