kazimirkai

Jesus where are all the fun colors? So unappealing lol

Seems like you could be right abt that. Latest gfs puts the 5th storm a bit farther north (not enough to do anything but a nice trend) and the 8th storm has a slightly colder albeit weaker solution. Guess well have to wait and see

It's not unreasonable to think that there was a time when it was normal. Of course I wasn't alive from the late 50s through the late 60s but from what I read those were some wintry winters.

Both 2013-2014, 2020-2021, and 2016-2017 gave me at least a month full of snow cover. That's about the best I can remember. Haven't seen a wall-to-wall good winter since 13/14 though. The Hudson river froze enough for ice boat races to take place.

Well 15 years ago I could barely compose a coherent sentence. Maybe I'm spoiled with modern guidance technology. Just for clarity, I assume climo stands for climatology?

Why must they be? Surely there can be some way to correct and adjust them based on historical analogs like professionals do. Are analogs thought to be less valued in the future with such an unpredictably changing climate?

Dam you were accurate enough back then. Why does it take the models until now to realize it? Just to display ensembles with cold (not frigid but "workable" as folks say) and the odd deterministic with reasonable nor'easters only to cave to your prediction in the end?

Funny snowfall map. Storm takes one look at New York and goes "nah"

I mean there was no snow but it really wasn't absurdly warm for most of the month. A few days ago I clocked about 10 degrees which is a pretty run of the mill minimum low for December. I guess these days I really don't expect winter to arrive until January so I wasn't disappointed much, especially given the euro's unambitious outlook early-on.

I know this map isn't the most up to date but it seems like we haven't gotten the worst of it in the northeast

Snowfall to date. Looking back at maps from the same date in other years, it seems like there hasn't been a winter this inactive across the country since 2015-2016.

Me being born in 2003 lol. 2013-2014 was the best winter I can recall. Pi day 2017 got me 22 inches and that was the best single storm total I've ever seen. I just wish I had been interested enough in weather back then to fully track it in the days leading up.

Yeah I recall a lot of anticipation for a good storm or two in December last year and I ended up with about 2 inches of slush while the Catskills a few miles north got 2 feet. Major disappointment. That sort of pattern kept on with every good chance last winter: always just on the warm side. At least I wasn't expecting any sort of white Christmas chances this year though, so I needn't brood and can look forward to a hopefully more wintry pattern while I'm home for break.

Wait so what should I be looking at?

According to the cpc/NCEP we're officially in a super el niño. How about that

Severe Weather's new update seems optimistic for what its worth https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-seasonal-snowfall-predictions-increased-snow-depth-latest-forecast-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

Well here's last years forecast compared to the last years temperature/precipitation anomalies. I don't think many meteorology enthusiasts take the Farmers Almanacs seriously (in my experience).

Well it was roughly the same, high precip spreads a little farther west in the southern portion of the country, drier northern tier, and some of the "50-60% chance of above average temperature" area shifted from the northern plains to the northeast and great lakes region. I was just wondering if anyone knew whether there was some sort of new data they were using to make these changes.

Any thoughts on what caused the cpc to change their temp/precip map the way they did for DJF in the latest update?

I recall not alot of snow but quite a few cold snaps that year. My dad an I made a bunch of ice sculptures by turning on the hose and spraying stuff for days on end till they became fortresses. Honestly, ill take snow or cold. Both are fun to observe and track.

Hi I'm new here, coming from direct weathers Facebook group but I want to get into some more serious depth and discussion. I found this forum last year and been a lurker for a while over the past few weeks before pulling the trigger on making an account. I'm currently a junior at Stony Brook University studying atmospheric and oceanic sciences and am therefore keen on learning things. To start off with I have one question: I understand teleconnections and what they do/mean but I've seen plenty of people mention "forcing" like its something different. Can someone please explain to me what forcing is and how it related to teleconnections?