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kazimirkai
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Everything posted by kazimirkai
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Typically has a cold bias though so the consistency in warm/dry anomalies it's been progging for early season over the past couple days may be worth noting
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How can the ENSO cool and La niña composites have completely opposing temperature anomalies in the eastern US? The temperature of the tropics can't have been that different in these two scenarios, why would its effect suddenly reverse?
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Do any of you guys have experience/tips with the wxprediction.com subseasonal forecast contest?
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Yeah, it's a really great time to be a winter weather fan just entering the industry
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Is Saharan dust/dry air not included in this factor list because of its difficulty to forecast long term? It seems like that's been a significant limiting factor for many storms in the past few years, especially in the early season
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How do you forecast PNA and NAO so far ahead? Are you just running on analogs?
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How can you be sure of the reliable influence of any teleconnection these days if they can just be nullified by some unseen pattern against all prior correlations?
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We need a terrestrial theory of everything
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I don't understand the value in using a single season as an analog. Wouldn't the entire earth have to be exactly the same for the season to play out in the same way? Why don't these ppl just use an average?
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Does anyone know the last time the EC forecasted a cold and snowy winter here? Serious question
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If the average annual temperature has been increasing over time, wouldn't you expect warm Septembers and warm winters to correlate (or warm any warm month with warm winters for that matter) during a warming climate? The majority of the cold-september-cold-winter cases are from before 2000 whereas more of the warm-september-warm-winter cases are from after. Would this not just be evidence that years as a whole are getting warmer?
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Ask the Russians
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Me when the gfs is worse... -
Yeah id be surprised if I cracked 4 inches at this point, hoping the northerly downslope is forgiving
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The ALY forecast range for my area still says 4-13" lol
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Anyone know what model Albany is seeing that would suggest anything like this?? It looks ridiculous
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is H5 500 mb heights?
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The op was a bust but the ensemble wasn't all that different from the 18z, still plenty of members near the coast, and more confident in a stronger system so its still seeing the phasing. Just shifted a bit east which can still change
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Oh dear...
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Irritating to even root for this one because I'm going to be at the AMS conference in New Orleans from the 10th to the 13th. I almost hope it doesn't end up being a huge event since that would be miserable to miss.
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I'm getting tired of this back and fourth its exhausting. Blizzard or bust pick one and leave me be
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Anyone here live on a boat off the coast of NJ? They might get dumped on with this one
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I don't like that quebec high I feel like this run is gonna have like no moisture inland. Certainly a good storm there though
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Ug should make some sort of page with all the definitions for new members. I get so confused on here with all the acronyms
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Don't all big storms have a bunch of moving parts that have to line up perfectly in a precise window? I've read the Kocin and Uccellini books and it seems the caliber of storms on some of the OP runs were never common. It's always taken a lot for them to happen. I don't have the benefit of lived experience though so Idrk.
