kazimirkai

The extended GEFS seems to be picking up on this secondary SSW signal with the some winter in early January (mainly around the 4th-12th in today's run). I think there could def be some chances for snow in interior NE and especially mountains before that though (evidenced by snowfall on the 384hr ensemble suite). The central ridge seems to relax more westward following Christmas.

Idk bout the two months but the current state would suggest some effects in early January which are reflected in extended gefs guidance

I mean the MJO signal isn't progged to project much on to the midlat pattern for the foreseeable future beyond day 21 so I'm a little doubtful of it's predictive relevance in this case.

Probably will be a warm one this year but I don't expect that we'll see the worst of it

Personally I'd rather it be cold with no snow than warm with no snow. At least the ponds are frozen and I can visit the mountains to get a dose of winter when I need.

For anyone curious abt the nbm

What's with the discrepancy here? These maps were released 15 minutes apart.

lotta spread though

AIFS scorecard over operational (blue=improvement). Ryan Torn suggested that systematic under performance at 50mb was because the NWP models it's train on aren't actually very good at simulating the physics of the stratosphere, so it's learning incorrect conclusions and then applying them in full force.

I mean yeah, deriving the effect of an SSW is a much more complex problem, but no one's debating whether or not it will occur. That's what I find comical about this post.

Lol what's nail-biting about it? Every single ensemble member supports it and about 90% are on board for a full reversal. Seems a bit clickbaity

Well it's pretty normal to expect that the MJO wouldn't reach phase 8 in a la-niña situation with base easterlies, but forecasts change. Still tough to say if it'll stay there long but that seems to be the crux of the change in forecasts over the past week or so.

I mean this seems pretty reasonable. Was at stony brook for the last four years and we got literally one decent snowstorm during that whole period. I certainly related to this sentiment coming from upstate New York.

If you ask me we've already sufficiently met the criteria or an early winter in the east so some relative warmth over the next two or three weeks feels like an appropriate 'balance'. Here's a comparison of seasonal snowfall vs last year at this time. Only the coastal and mid-atlantic areas that have missed out so far.

Ill take it November 2018 and December 2019 are anomalies then?