kazimirkai

Not great for Albany. Maybe I'll go skating if it doesn't snow

Interesting to see EPS and GEFS trending in opposite directions. GEPS sits pretty happily in the middle

Are there ensemble members were not seeing that are weighting it this highly?

Still one of the slowest approaches. Doesn't hit me till Sunday evening compared to morning/midday on other models

This is getting ridiculous. Isn't the NBM supposed to be the most reasonable model?

Just got some of that here in Albany

Not Albany and New York yet, interestingly. Guess they're still less certain despite NBM outputs

Seems like 12z models are much more confident abt inland snow

Didn't they send hurricane hunters out somewhere to take measurements? Or has that not happened yet

certainly seems farther north than the gfs with a more eastern weighted shield. Waiting for reggie for comparison

Alot of my weather friends from Stony brook and Albany are heading down to AMS this weekend and they're all hoping for ice there to at least see some winter precip out of this huge storm. Pretty tragic situation for them if its all rain

The extended GEFS seems to be picking up on this secondary SSW signal with the some winter in early January (mainly around the 4th-12th in today's run). I think there could def be some chances for snow in interior NE and especially mountains before that though (evidenced by snowfall on the 384hr ensemble suite). The central ridge seems to relax more westward following Christmas.

Idk bout the two months but the current state would suggest some effects in early January which are reflected in extended gefs guidance

I mean the MJO signal isn't progged to project much on to the midlat pattern for the foreseeable future beyond day 21 so I'm a little doubtful of it's predictive relevance in this case.

Probably will be a warm one this year but I don't expect that we'll see the worst of it