kazimirkai

certainly seems farther north than the gfs with a more eastern weighted shield. Waiting for reggie for comparison

Alot of my weather friends from Stony brook and Albany are heading down to AMS this weekend and they're all hoping for ice there to at least see some winter precip out of this huge storm. Pretty tragic situation for them if its all rain

The extended GEFS seems to be picking up on this secondary SSW signal with the some winter in early January (mainly around the 4th-12th in today's run). I think there could def be some chances for snow in interior NE and especially mountains before that though (evidenced by snowfall on the 384hr ensemble suite). The central ridge seems to relax more westward following Christmas.

Idk bout the two months but the current state would suggest some effects in early January which are reflected in extended gefs guidance

I mean the MJO signal isn't progged to project much on to the midlat pattern for the foreseeable future beyond day 21 so I'm a little doubtful of it's predictive relevance in this case.

Probably will be a warm one this year but I don't expect that we'll see the worst of it

Personally I'd rather it be cold with no snow than warm with no snow. At least the ponds are frozen and I can visit the mountains to get a dose of winter when I need.

For anyone curious abt the nbm

What's with the discrepancy here? These maps were released 15 minutes apart.

lotta spread though

AIFS scorecard over operational (blue=improvement). Ryan Torn suggested that systematic under performance at 50mb was because the NWP models it's train on aren't actually very good at simulating the physics of the stratosphere, so it's learning incorrect conclusions and then applying them in full force.

I mean yeah, deriving the effect of an SSW is a much more complex problem, but no one's debating whether or not it will occur. That's what I find comical about this post.

Lol what's nail-biting about it? Every single ensemble member supports it and about 90% are on board for a full reversal. Seems a bit clickbaity

Well it's pretty normal to expect that the MJO wouldn't reach phase 8 in a la-niña situation with base easterlies, but forecasts change. Still tough to say if it'll stay there long but that seems to be the crux of the change in forecasts over the past week or so.

I mean this seems pretty reasonable. Was at stony brook for the last four years and we got literally one decent snowstorm during that whole period. I certainly related to this sentiment coming from upstate New York.