kazimirkai

Do any of you guys have experience/tips with the wxprediction.com subseasonal forecast contest?

Yeah, it's a really great time to be a winter weather fan just entering the industry

Is Saharan dust/dry air not included in this factor list because of its difficulty to forecast long term? It seems like that's been a significant limiting factor for many storms in the past few years, especially in the early season

How do you forecast PNA and NAO so far ahead? Are you just running on analogs?

How can you be sure of the reliable influence of any teleconnection these days if they can just be nullified by some unseen pattern against all prior correlations?

We need a terrestrial theory of everything

I don't understand the value in using a single season as an analog. Wouldn't the entire earth have to be exactly the same for the season to play out in the same way? Why don't these ppl just use an average?

Does anyone know the last time the EC forecasted a cold and snowy winter here? Serious question

If the average annual temperature has been increasing over time, wouldn't you expect warm Septembers and warm winters to correlate (or warm any warm month with warm winters for that matter) during a warming climate? The majority of the cold-september-cold-winter cases are from before 2000 whereas more of the warm-september-warm-winter cases are from after. Would this not just be evidence that years as a whole are getting warmer?

Ask the Russians

Me when the gfs is worse...

Yeah id be surprised if I cracked 4 inches at this point, hoping the northerly downslope is forgiving

The ALY forecast range for my area still says 4-13" lol

Anyone know what model Albany is seeing that would suggest anything like this?? It looks ridiculous

is H5 500 mb heights?