Stx_Thunder

Digital snow lol that's definitely a new slang wx term for me

- MUCH more southerly Low track (now near San Antonio), than what all the models predicted.. Still hasn't made that northeast ejection that should've happened toward NTX/OK..

Near-sfc CAPE 1000, 7+ LRs, and 60+ kt effective shear over TX coastal bend this evening.. Fairly low FZL (for standards down here) also.

- Seeing the evidence right now in EN/MJO influence as this incoming Low today is taking a MUCH further southward track and still tracking eastward entering the state near Midland (unlike ones ejecting further northeast through the panhandle and into plains during December), southeast of NM border.

Elevated thunder potential looking fairly decent today from San Antonio (maybe as far north as Dallas), and east with fairly steep mid-level LRs again (already evident on 0Z observed soundings tonight). Though, both GFS/Euro showing 60 F DPs creeping onto coastal bend later today before next cold frontal passage tonight with limited surface CAPE right onshore in tonight's ARWs & HRRR runs. Unlike last system just before Christmas (even though there were some storms in the state & hail around Amarillo on 23rd), this one has much better DL shear over TX coastal region. Especially with a 150 kt UL jet max overhead. Might not be any severe onshore. Especially if marine warm front/surface Low tracks further offshore, but could be close call for mid TX coast as CAMs tonight showing formidable amount of MUCAPE getting closer to 1000. Which could be a sign of a more potent incoming mid-upper level Low. Especially seeing it right now on WV out there around Arizona border (deeper dry air wrapping on backside).

Looks like things (EN and apparently MJO also really going into play now) are going to get very interesting convective-wise for most of Gulf Coast region late this week and/or early next week. SPC already discussing the next two (robust forecasted) mid-upper lows/troughs of interest in their Day 4 - 8 outlook New Years Monday. Globals also were showing Cold mid-level temps (500Mb near -30 C & 700Mb near -10 C) widely around the lows with widespread ample DL shear (50 - 60 kts generally but some areas near 100 kts) ahead of the second Low, with Monday's (8th) generally tracking further south through TX than the first one this Friday (5th). Will definitely be interesting to see how things evolve with these next 2 highlighted incoming Lows this week.

Thunder threat looking pretty good for most of coastal and eastern half TX this weekend. Especially with elevated mid-level LRs already in the 6 - 7 range in place here on coast in tonight's 0Z soundings and Euro/ICON consistently forecasting all week around 7 over the state. Any severe still questionable if incoming trough is lower amplitude (DL shear by no means impressive at least for coastal region on globals), but at least a double round of storms basically guarantee now in both globals & CAMs in tonight's runs, Saturday - early Sunday.

As usual even with an almost fully due W capping/drying flow already established in the boundary layer ahead of a cold front, a number of storms still get going around Houston. It never fails in SETX even in winter. Some pretty strong ones (and even a few severe warned ones in the past 2 hours) too with hail reported as VILs are reaching past 50 at times on radar even further southwest:

Evidently looks like a pretty potent incoming shortwave into TX tomorrow. Even with very limited MUCAPE (although elevated mid-level LRs near 7) this evening, already got occasional CG lightning discharges going on at times in the activity/impulse moving NE through the Brownsville/lower TX coast area. Thought I heard one rumble up here too about an hour ago.

Just to be clear, I was meaning convective or thunder patterns in general in that post I wrote. As they tend to be more erratic around TX during EN fall - spring seasons because of more persistent jet stream influence (than what's typically observed during LN ones). So it's not always clear how convective patterns will actually happen or evolve. Especially during the spring. I'm very, Very well aware of the cap/EML and its effects on deep convection all around down here in Southern TX. As this region is basically 'CIN City', compared to the rest of the state (including but especially HOU region) to the point that the only real "guarantee months" for any kind of thunder day in STX is around May/June and September/October. Even without capping issues or severe, there's often another parameter for thunderstorms that's off such as limited moisture aloft, timing issues with incoming lift/dynamics, etc. Frontal scenarios (unless it's anafrontal but even that isn't much better scenario), are typically the worse down here for storms because of the veering SW boundary layer flow (like you mentioned). Which caps & dries the column out down here the most, first (before anywhere else north in the state). There's also been a few years during the past 2 decades where I've seen CINH values on SPC soundings in Brownsville/BRO having been close to 1,000 in March. Overall, storms are trickiest to come by down here because most of the dynamics from shortwaves moving into or through the state from the west typically bypass the region to the north/east. It's literally almost always like that every year. Also, most of the deep convective or MCS scenarios through the Fall & Spring seasons are outflow-driven from initiated storms upstream like around CTX region. That tends to mitigate severe risk down here as well (more often than not). So with all that in mind and from what I've seen up the TX coast on data over the past 2 decades, thunderstorms and severe ones overall have A Lot less trouble going on up there around Houston/SETX compared to down here (and even most of the state). You can clearly see that huge difference in the color area legends on the observed annual mean thunderstorm day climatology map on NOAA over the past 3 decades below: - Reference: https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/thunderstorms NAM always does best (temp & timing wise) with those colder, shallow frontal air masses coming out of Canada. It's been like that for years now. And that pretty dense one at the end of last October was no exception for NAM's performance. TX NWS forecasters (especially at the Austin/San Antonio region office) always mention NAM's output in their AFD when those shallow fronts dive south into the state because they already know about that as well.

Looks like one of those very shear-dependent setups (rather than thermodynamic). Which is pretty typical this time of year. Especially with all these cold frontal intrusions of late all the way into the western/southern Gulf. I read in the earlier day 2 SPC discussion from today that they were thinking of downgrading the risk (I can see the valid reasoning why in their discussion details especially about the forecast rapid warming profile aloft from 850mb - 500mb layer). Though it's a bit surprising they even mentioned a possible downgrade especially for those typical areas of concern (Houston and eastward), only being around the Gulf coast during the cold season. 0Z Brownsville or BRO sounding this evening showing that there's already about 200 MUCAPE around 700mb, and 1.8 PW (versus 1.3 on this morning's 12Z) down there. So they're right that it's a pretty rapid airmass modification pattern ongoing today in the WAA regime with 40 kt veering southerly LLJ here on the western side of the Gulf ahead of that next shortwave out west.

Looks like Winter is coming to TX for next week and Halloween. Since it's a shallow airmass diving south out of Canada, will be interesting to see just how cold NAM goes on temps in the state on new runs at the end of this week.

Really enjoying this persistent cloudy and much cooler (than it's been in literally months now on both) weather since Friday. Though not very much less humid. Definitely a huge break on the A/C. Shortwaves been moving through the region in the southern stream flow with intermittent echos on radar the past 2 days but most of it even out west and south around Laredo and Brownsville regions seem to be mostly virga too given the drier lower levels from last weeks fronts. But this new week when the drying effects wane... As things stand now, really don't need anymore rainfall, 'least around here on the coastal bend. Looks like some pacific tropical system moisture influence also from both 16-E and Lidia. But the heaviest rainfall could end up further south. Though PWs forecast to jump from under 1.5" now, to around 2.5" by Tuesday. Which is quite high for October standards. Even down here.

Rain lasted pretty much all day down here. Thunder ended by around mid-afternoon. Though lots of nice photo-worthy cloudy sky scenes to look at before it got dark. Still lots of moisture in place aloft with 2" PW still hanging on but lower level flow on 0Z sounding starting to veer all northward now. Looking to welcome fall with open arms behind tomorrow's first real cold front for the state this season. That's generally how it always goes down here around TX in El Niño with wetter/cooler fall - spring seasons overall. I've already seen close to 10" here on the coast. Just within the last 3 weeks since that subtropical furnace high finally went away, as the grass is really starting to grow fast now between cuts. And we've only entered fall. A pretty active winter even convective wise being right next to the gulf wouldn't be out of question and especially next spring in '24 (with obviously higher severe probabilities). Spring 2023 was pretty convectively active all things considered in the state when the ENSO transition was going on. It tends to follow a trend into the next year. But even more so around the middle of the decade as I've seen in the past 2. I can only imagine what spring 2024 & 25 might bring this far out.

Had a sudden downpour from an inflow streamer cell come over me around 4 am and another (not as heavy where I am) going on a short while ago. Picking up again with the fanning MCS coming down here and hearing more thunder now. Looks like activity is going to stick around in the southern half all day seeing radar trends further north toward San Antonio. Was never forecast to be severe this week over the southern half of TX (including Houston) as the majority of effective shear was going to stay over northern half no matter what this week on models. But with all the deeper moisture streaming in around the region, WPC still keeping a fairly large Marginal risk area going today. Though I feel they may be underdoing it a little through tonight, at least down here with the several inch rainfall totals I've already seen since last week and the 2"+ PWs already in place. Could have some training of cells going on around here today (something like what happened Monday). But more interestingly this early in the season with EN back, could have some overrunning type rain and maybe a few thunder cells going on tomorrow behind the initial front with more shortwave energy coming in from the southwest with the southern stream jet (if drier air aloft doesn't filter in too quick). Real cold front not coming through state till later Friday. Looks like clouds will stick around in the southern half for most of the weekend, with another pattern change later next week when upper level flow veers back southwest. GFS/Euro showing even cooler temps late next week. Oh boy... I definitely know your type on these places. Not worth anything else here with you at all. Fort Worth got hurricane force gusts yesterday evening. That's official. You just can't argue with 60 kts effective shear and already nil CIN. So the risk was 100% there all around DFW regardless of your opinion on what defines an enhanced risk (not SPC's classification/reasoning). Which I should add, is below a moderate risk.

Should also mention that the morning enhanced risk area upgrade update wasn't just for significant severe hail that promoted it, but for significant damaging wind gusts also.

- Bulk shear was nearing 50 kts (like the 12Z CAMs were showing by evening), effective shear nearing 60 kts, and Significant Severe value was passing 50 K at the time of the 0Z FWD sounding launch tonight, with virtually nil CIN of any kind. Moisture was lacking a little with 60% RH in both lower and mid levels. So the boundary layer wasn't quite unstable as the lower to mid-level lapse rates dropped some during the day. Outflow or frontal boundary also outran the storms as I saw on radar going through DFW which cut off some of the boundary layer or southerly lower level inflow into the cells. Had they not been undercut by the boundary, things would've likely been a bit more interesting severe-wise all around there. Overall, it was a sufficient enough potential to justify the enhanced severe risk around DFW area with all the severe instances and warnings issued around there a while after dark, also taken into account. Especially, the convective segment with 75+ mph measured gusts that literally came right next to Fort Worth metro as I also saw on base velocity next to 9:00 PM from the west.

MUCAPE this morning is at 990mb. Which is literally just above the surface layer... I would in no way, consider that elevated. Even with a stable near surface layer, if you have enough deep-layer or effective shear and support for lift going on aloft with a relatively unstable boundary layer, it can still promote stronger cells and higher wind gusts. Especially in a very linearly forced MCS or segment. Since you replied toward me, the only other thing I'm going to add is SPC, especially on updated Day 1 outlooks, would not be highlighting your area in a large Slight risk if they knew the severe potential wasn't actually there. And, they've pretty much explained their reasoning with just about everything I wrote about the ongoing convective parameters in here. It's not just about what the conditions are at or near the surface (or how unstable/stable it is in that layer alone in your case). Elevated supercells also do actually exist. On the contrary, from all my convective analysis experience over the years, it has a lot more to do with the boundary layer when it comes to instability. And even with limited or very conditional instability overall, it still does not mean severe can't happen at all (and has before in high sheared environments). Even SPC talks a lot about all of these things too, reading their discussions frequently over the years. Also, they've expanded the enhanced risk area much closer to you now in the late morning update.

Despite the lower CAPE on this morning's sounding, I wouldn't say that's marginal instability up there in DFW given the already fairly weak inhibition, 700mb - 500mb lapse rates already up at 7 C, a 70 F + surface dew point (which I would think is pretty high for this time of year up there in October), and already almost 35 kts Effective shear, and nearing 100 kts cloud layer shear now. And, the forecast of no real MLCINH on CAMs around there through the evening. Craven/Brooks SigSevere already at 20,000 also. Which will likely increase through the day just like the shear values with the upper trough obviously getting closer. BRN low, but will probably go up later today with lower-level flow veering and increasing from the south-southeast. Plus, 12Z CAM runs like the ARWs this morning are pushing back on the main and pretty sharp convective line further into the evening compared to yesterday evening runs. This could be an indication of the upper trough deepening/slowing down. --- At this point, it looks like a close call looking at the latest data and parameters this morning as more would seem to favor it later today than not (despite it being a nocturnal convective event). Especially if there's a potent incoming mid-level shortwave involved (like SPC is talking about today). If there isn't or timing is off with the stronger dynamics coming in this evening, then severe would be less likely around there.

- SPC finally getting their act together. Wouldn't be surprised if they expand that enhanced risk into or near the DFW area this afternoon due to more significant damaging wind gusts or hail events (given the upward of 60 kt shear CAMs are showing in that region by this evening). Probably a good mid-level shortwave coming into the mix too given how deep that incoming upper level trough probably is also. Can't really underestimate these EN Fall systems. Especially being early in the season.

Latest CAMs showing 50 - 60 kts bulk shear by this evening (Wednesday) over North TX as the main convective show gets going and starts pushing south through the state into Thursday.

After a long while of not having one down here, had a good thunder day, all day during the daytime yesterday down here with training cells coming onshore, with what appeared to be an old frontal boundary that came down the coast to right around me (before moving back northeast toward Houston today). Some of the lightning strikes were pretty bright inside as it wasn't really dark at all outside underneath the cells. Radar showed about 4 - 5 in. storm totals from yesterday alone. On top of the heavier rainfall that started last week around TX coast. ---------- Just as I suspected they would (even though they didn't sooner in the day 4 - 8 last weekend), SPC finally going with a slight risk area over much the northern half of TX into OK for tomorrow ahead of the incoming trough. WPC backed off on the expansive excessive rainfall Slight risk area for Wednesday - Thursday period they originally had last weekend for most of TX. But still have a large marginal risk covering the eastern and southern half. So wouldn't be surprised if they reintroduce a slight risk further south for Thursday - Friday period.

Well WPC already jumped the excessive rainfall outlook slight risk bandwagon. Which is plausible given there's still more than enough time for Gulf moisture to build further north ahead of the incoming trough/surface front. Main question now will be how deep the trough is coming into the state mid-week.

Saw a nice little thunder cell develop right over me around sunrise yesterday after seeing some decent lightning strikes going on an hour before, off to the southeast before it started getting daylight. Looks like the 2023 horrible domination season of the furnace 500mb High for TX is officially coming to a close next week. Expecting good rain chances, Every day now through next week for TX Coast with a persistent gulf moisture influx aloft. Much more normal for September down here. --------- Statewide, things look like they will be getting quite convectively active next week around Thursday, with the first significant incoming Pacific trough of the season that could be pretty deep moving into TX. Recent - latest GFS & Euro runs generally been showing up to 50 kts bulk shear over the central/northern part. So supercells are definitely not out of question next week. Which there could be a more organized severe (MCS) threat for the eastern half. Especially with EN finally back and evidently in play here early in the season. I suspect SPC will input a 15% risk area in the Day 4 - 8 outlook tomorrow or Sunday, as they've already discussed the potential today. Even though it may be a narrowly organized threat.

Looks like another decent mid-level shortwave moving through the state in the NW mid-upper flow aloft this afternoon with storms increasing over the hill country region now, north of SAT. Looks like convective chances continue through early next week for TX coast. CAMs today also showing a 500mb Low meandering around here or just east over the Northwestern Gulf the next few days. Saw a few nice anvil crawlers on the backside of the developing MCS going southwest into the Coastal Bend region on Houston's uptown EarthCam after sunset Monday evening. Missed the show when it was coming into Houston during day. But saw more of the lightning from the parent cells as it got more organized on a live streaming nest cam around Victoria area after dark. Didn't see much or hear any thunder around me later that evening/after midnight. Stayed mostly west before fully decaying. ---------- CFS showing somewhat below normal temps for much of state in Mid-October. So looks like a bigger and more active pattern shift to actual TX Fall still in the cards for next month. And subtropical High continues to be on weakening trend out west with 500mb heights no more than about 590 forecast around the core going into next week. Definitely nowhere near as strong or dominant as it was during the past months (thankfully). Which is all good news. Also have to keep ongoing and strengthening EN in mind here too. Which generally means more cooler/active Fall-Spring due to more southerly storm tracks.