Stx_Thunder

https://www.kristv.com/news/local-news/in-your-neighborhood/san-patricio-county/sinton/sinton-fires-investigators-determine-what-started-tuesdays-devastating-fires https://www.kristv.com/news/local-news/in-your-neighborhood/san-patricio-county/sinton/sinton-neighbors-return-to-the-aftermath-of-the-devastating-fires - Recap of Tuesday's wildfire aftermath in Sinton. Multiple wildfires started in San Patricio county Tuesday afternoon. Which is likely why the A&M fire incident data was overestimating the burn acreage of the 'Welder' fire alone. Although another fire (Railway) not far from it on the northeast outskirts of Sinton did burn over 700 acres total. ArcGIS data also shows this. Despite its confirmed small size (<100 acres), all it took for the Welder fire to become disastrous & completely burn down 17 homes in Sinton, was a simple downed power line. Combined with strong post-frontal winds, extremely dry air (DP around 10 F), ongoing drought/cured vegetation fuels, and very warm temps in the 80s/90s last Tuesday afternoon. - - - The fire wx danger over the western half of state does not look to end anytime very soon. SPC is already highlighting Critical fire wx risk areas in the D 4-8 outlook as the fire threat could really escalate again behind another deep Low traversing the Plains at the end of this new week (14th - 15th). And may even need to be expanded further northeast closer to DFW region and into the C Plains. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/ - Also, the ongoing drought in the state is obviously worsening with San Antonio area now in a developing 'Exceptional' (D4; max drought intensity) status. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?South

A large brushfire (Welder Complex) burned just over 1500 acres total in San Patricio county on the northeast side of Sinton where evacuations of several hundred people occurred Tuesday afternoon (biggest town in the county outside of Corpus area). It seems to be fully contained now late tonight looking at local media updates from Tuesday evening. Especially now that winds have died off and DPs have recovered, but did burn structures down (20 houses but damage extent still not clear). This was the largest active fire reported in the state on Tuesday. - - - Mesonet site in Val Verde county (Del Rio area) around noon Tuesday reported 67 mph post-frontal wind gust. Highest non-convective gust recorded in the Austin/SAT NWS region on latest LSR data.

Very impressive dew point drops behind today's system & dryline to < 0 F in the Rio Grande plains and even < 10 F near the coastal bend with very warm & strong post-frontal westerly downslope flow component (Cotulla is sitting at -4 F right now at 3 pm obs). Del Rio had post-frontal wind gusts to 60 mph earlier also. The wind is howling this afternoon in the southern half of state with all the very warm afternoon air transferring more of all this post-frontal momentum aloft down to the surface. DP was at 0 F in El Paso yesterday afternoon with blowing dust in W/NWTX. I can see the dust is around here in STX causing haze this afternoon but that could also be because of an active wildfire ongoing in Duval county blowing the smoke east. No disagreement at all on SPC's decision yesterday to post a rare 'Extreme' fire risk outlook area over the southwestern half of state for today. Considering how dry both the air & ground are in that region (along with the warm, strong west downslope flow). Although no major active wildfires have broken out looking at TX wildfire map data as of typing this.

'Meant to post this last night after looking at latest evening model data, but with the modification process of the (extremely shallow) arctic origin airmass well underway just above it in the LLs around the coast, elevated storms have broken out today around Houston with some already stronger lightning strikes as of typing this. Corpus (CRP) 12z upper air obs this morning already showing effective shear near 60 knots, and steep ML lapse rates above 7 C. Fairly strong LL south warm-air advection flow, and cold H5 temps below -15 C. Even though SPC is thinking the hail threat is lower today & tonight on D1 outlook discussion (probably because of latest mesoscale model data this morning keeping everything offshore), the models are underdoing the deep convective threat today, onshore. Especially the already ongoing Houston area storms. So I don't think the severe hail potential is nonexistent. Especially tonight as Euro has been fairly consistent showing a decent amount of MUCAPE (>500) hanging over the mid-upper coastal region with weakening CIN. Ahead of a stronger, more pronounced H7 shortwave moving into the state from the west (both on Euro & GFS).

Again, taking words right out of my mouth on here for obvious reasons.. Like I already said in my last post, if you had just kept to what you actually wanted to say about the cold (instead of coming back to "correct" me again & again), everything would've literally been fine in here. It's just common sense and etiquette. Nothing complicated about this.

Taking words out of my mouth there when I've never even said Arctic intrusions can't happen this time of year. I do very easily realize and I am well aware it's still wintertime, and February in Texas. The freeze watch in STX is just for 1 morning of temps slightly below 32 F. Even down here, that's not rare in February. Apparently, 'extreme' means when 15 F in NTX is ongoing just for a morning in your case. The 'Extreme Cold Warning' in effect is just for wind chills in NTX. I got to also point out that several of your latest replies in here (since the beginning of the month) have been aimed at me from the start on this. If you had just posted what you actually wanted to say about the cold event without coming back to "correct" me, things would not have come to this point.

The models are only showing 1 or 2 mornings, of "extreme" cold in DFW.. Not all day. It's been projected like that for some days now even on Euro.

'Pretty certain now the next winter episode this coming week is going to be a temperature (only) story. And even then, mostly a glancing arctic blow with mainly the chill values the issue in NTX. Temps in DFW & south could even get above freezing on GFS for highs with sunny skies also (right after frontal passage the night before), Wednesday afternoon, and stay above freezing after Thursday morning with WAA cloud cover returning Thursday night ahead of a late week trough. Which definitely lowers the nocturnal freeze threat. Looking ahead, I would not say winter is necessarily done for after this coming week as the AO may go back into another formidable negative phase around mid March. More of the recent CFS data is also depicting lots of below normal temps across the Plains, and even in our state starting near March 10th - 20th. Which is likely an indicator of that. Also, the already weak LN is starting to fall back toward neutral ENSO territory (as it typically does nearing spring). Not saying it would be as cold as this upcoming week, but I definitely wouldn't expect an all-warm & dry March this time around, the way things have been going lately coming into later February now. As I've seen over the years, we're typically more susceptible to chilly/wet 'spring break' season spells from these weak EN/LN and neutral ENSO winters.

Was not anticipating a major roller coaster temp pattern the next several days especially here in STX, but both Euro & GFS are showing a pretty rapid warmup into the 70s & 80s, Saturday. Even all the way up to DFW before the next frontal intrusion this weekend. 12z NAM this morning is also going just as warm too on highs for much of the Eastern half of state Saturday. Which is certainly plausible given a deep southerly LL flow (up to 50 kt but could be stronger) starting Friday, warming 925Mb & 850Mb temps up to 15 C, or even 20 C with much warmer air being pushed in from northeastern Mex by Saturday morning. Cold & Flu cases in the state are likely going to rise substantially next week with all these cold/warm shifts.

MJO does not guarantee any kind of cold air outbreak over TX. A cooler/wetter pattern, yes, for the most part. But even that is not always a guarantee in the latter phases you wrote. As I've seen over the years. I looked at the February dates you wrote (1989, 1996, 2021), and they all involved warm Januarys overall. This past January (2025), was not. As the majority of last month involved below normal temps, and for extended periods across most of the state. So I'm even less convinced now we're going to see any real cold air intrusion for the rest of this month (February). GEFS is staying consistent on temps the next 2 weeks. Also showing a zonal/southwesterly upper flow pattern over much of the Plains. Which doesn't make it favorable for Arctic intrusions to come this far south. CPC is also noting the zonal flow pattern in their 8 - 14 outlook discussion with only average confidence (3 out of 5) of below normal temps across the Plains. They've also been trending north on the above normal temps here in TX the past few days.

No real complaints about this ongoing warm/ridging pattern (especially how chilly January was overall). Not seeing any strong signal for another Arctic air intrusion or outbreak in the state for the rest of the season. The next few frontal airmass intrusions are mostly just Canadian origin with the real cold air firmly staying north/east. And of course, Canadian model is doing its usual extreme bias junk. Euro & GFS aren't anywhere near as cold in the coming weeks. And their ensembles are starting to trend warmer for later February. Though it'll probably be cooler overall than of late, and going into March. Considering also the AO looks to trend back into a possibly more persistent negative phase for later February. -AO does not always translate to Arctic air intrusion nor outbreak (even during winter).

While the cold spell is finally going away, a potent thunder threat, along with more heavy rainfall (like in December), looks to return at least over the southeastern half of state later this coming week. Along with an established Gulf sector (60s DP) from Del Rio - Houston area, and south. That incoming ML Low also looks to stay deep as it nears the state. Will see how its projected evolution/track trend, but both Euro & GFS are already showing a fairly large H5 circulation literally just west of the panhandle (and over WTX) early Friday. Along with decent swaths of positive vorticity moving across the state starting Wednesday. Shear, MLCAPE, and minimal CIN also there on both globals over the south. Notable ML lapse rates > 7 as well. So definitely wouldn't rule out at least a couple supercells with this multi-round convective event (more interesting to watch), around here. - - -

It's been pretty chilly overall at least here in TX since just after Jan 5 when the first Arctic airmass intrusion came down to the Gulf coast. The only real warm day I've had since then even down here in southern TX was Saturday (18th). It's definitely harder for us to stay warm down here in these states whenever we have these extended cold periods because we're just not use to having to do that for more than a few days at a time most years. I'm personally going to welcome the returning warmth later this week. Even though it doesn't look like anything else like this (even Arctic air intrusions) is going to happen for the rest of the current season in these states, looking at longer range model data in February.

Just read an article about the all-time record February 1895 snowfall. Which had just over 8 in. Today's totals in the vicinity have reached over 9 in. looking at NWS LIX data.

Just under 0.2 in. ice accumulation at NWS Corpus Christi office. Quite significant down here in STX as any actual winter precip accumulation is rare.

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/louisiana/neworleans/bourbonstreet/?cam=catsmeow2 NWS says measurable snow hasn't happened in New Orleans metro since 1963 (if I'm correct on it being actual snowfall not since back then).

Can hear a little sleet hitting my north-facing windows right now and since about 4 am (when it sounded much louder at times with the strong winds). Seeing some ice particles stuck on grass leaves around the yard and very small ice patches on the roof shingle edges. Reading NWS storm reports within the past few hours from public and broadcast media that have photos & videos of actual sleet accumulation on cars and such around the coastal bend (CRP office) region. - - - Looks all snow cover now in Houston metro:

Been very windy here near the coastal bend/mid-coast region since early this evening (gusts up to 50 mph) with the surface Gulf low apparently not far offshore right now. I don't remember where it was this windy in an overrunning Arctic airmass scenario with frozen precip involved. But this could increase the power outage risk overnight - this morning (Tuesday). Especially if any icing from freezing rain/drizzle happens on trees & power lines at the same time. GFS, Euro and NAM all intent now on the sleet line getting all the way down, close to Brownsville later this morning after sunrise. I'm really hoping I can cash in on all sleet/ice pellet event like in the 2021 TX chill. I'm going to be shocked if New Orleans gets any kind of snow accumulation later today. GFS, Euro and NAM all showing that now..

Sleet, reported in San Antonio on 10 pm observations.

Sleet, reported in Houston on 8 pm NWS observation data.

Mean mid-level RH is high right now (about 90%) on DFW 0z upper-air observation data this evening. Low-level is below 50%. Moisture is there overall. But, latest 0z NAM data coming in tonight still is not showing much omega/lift aloft overnight around DFW, and absent by morning (and column really dries out by midday). GFS hasn't been showing much lift either. Just FYI.

It is warmer air advection (not necessarily moisture) due to a southwest/southerly flow usually in the 850Mb - 700Mb or 5 - 10 Kft layer overrunning colder air closer to the surface, causing the advecting cloud deck usually from the western Gulf. Which is common at least in the southern part of state whenever there's a trough out west, and we already have a polar or arctic airmass in place. This was earlier today (15z or 9 am) on Dallas/Fort Worth (FWS) site radar. Showing southwest flow from about 6 Kft or 6,000 Ft (just above 850Mb layer) and up:

Current VWP & 12z upper-air obs this morning in STX already showing a fairly strong southeasterly LL flow (20 - 30 knots up to 850Mb once again like prior to the last major overrunning precip event), with low-level WAA cloud deck firmly in place now looking outside here, now that it's daylight. And areas/bands of light (all liquid) rain developing near lower coast around Brownsville.

The 'possible strong event' topic tag seriously needs to be taken off here as there's basically a 99% probability now the current La Niña phase is going to remain weak, then likely go back to neutral ENSO going into spring. It was only just about a month ago Niña went official, and was already projected to be a weak Niña on dynamical models even back in November. I should also point out, CPC did a poor job with the forecasting. Insisting La Niña would return by the summer last year (which did not happen at all).

GFS & Euro were already projecting decreasing cloud cover N - S in the state through the day Tuesday. Which obviously explains why 40s are starting to show up that day now too. Good you agree on the wild model forecasting because it definitely has been around here since 2025 started. I've never seen such crazy/complicated projections. Especially less than a week out. 'Already makes me wonder how they're going to be like for severe season come spring. 'Would not trust the mesoscale models (except maybe NAM in these winter wx scenarios), as they always have a lot of precip & convective intensity bias around here. Plus, latest 0z GFS tonight is starting to speed up LL drying on Tuesday. Which is definitely plausible, given the strongly reinforced continental north CAA flow by Monday night verifies.