Stx_Thunder

Fine TX spring wx all this week to be outside. Can't ask for more comfortable conditions in the entire state by this time of year. Was more winterlike this past weekend even in STX with below normal temps. And record snowfall in the Panhandle region.

SPC, 100% dropped the ball today here in TX.. 2 in. hail reported in San Antonio at sea world, from a storm that literally popped up right over the city 2 hours ago with a front/dryline in the area and obviously a shortwave trailing east-southeast in the w/nw upper flow aloft (looking at this evening's obs sounding data). Causing a few other cells right now in STX.

Some recap on the easily historical RGV flooding this week: https://www.krgv.com/news/hundreds-of-water-rescues-made-in-cameron-county-more-underway https://www.valleycentral.com/news/local-news/harlingen-streets-flooded-residents-rescued/ The airport in Harlingen (Valley International) is closed at least until Monday.

Deep STX / lower RGV is the clear winner in the convective pattern this week. Many severe warnings were posted throughout a 12-hour period starting around noon Thursday, all the way until about an hour and a half ago. One convective cluster/segment after another, moving at a turtle pace east along the Rio Grande to the coast along a stationary front. Extremely impressive storm totals in & around Harlingen (just up the road from Brownsville). Now going up to 20 inches since Wednesday afternoon! (26th)

Finally hearing thunder again and things lighting up over the southern part of state. Good amount of +CG strikes despite it only being *just the very beginning (initial weak shortwave) of a multi-round thunder show through Friday. Convective pattern I like the most. Not sure if I can agree on WPC's decision to post 'moderate' excessive rainfall risk through tomorrow in D1 & 2 outlooks. I do like that they wrote out the "worse" and "best" case scenarios yesterday in the discussions. But there'll likely be some runoff issues in STX especially considering how long & dry it's been since the last heavy rainfall several months ago. Both Euro & GFS insistent on near 10" totals swath somewhere between San Antonio and Corpus by the weekend. Brownsville (BRO) 12z upper air obs was already showing 1.7 in. precipitable water this morning. And southeasterly flow even above H7. So it looks like 2" PW could be reached later tonight or tomorrow. Which would be getting into record territory for this time of year.

'Have not seen forecast thunder probs like this over the southern half since last September.. Max rainfall totals still up in the air as models are starting to slow down the approach of the Low/trough (more cutoff-like). Both Euro & GFS having convective feedback issues today showing around 10" bullseyes, but the slowdown would likely allow PW to climb higher near the coast and both are showing up to 2 in. now. Which would be well above normal this early in the year.

Decent amount of hailstorms and clustering going on this evening with a front in CTX. Wasn't expecting that with the limited CAPE and moisture. And pretty high CIN on upper air obs earlier today. Especially the 2+ in. hail in Austin/San Antonio area.

Looks pretty good for at least some convective action finally returning for not just the northern half, but southern half of state also later this coming week. The MJO edging back toward the latter phases and definitely diminishing LN in progress also gives hope. GFS, Euro and ensembles are kind of wobbling around over the state on highest rainfall totals. But with the more unusual southern Low/trough consensus track projected in NE Mex, would obviously expect the better action over the southern half this time. Particularly closer to the Rio Grande and Alamo city (SAT) region. Where they literally need it the most in the entire state. Not sold yet on those 3+ in. totals Euro and ensembles been showing the past few days with PW only projected around 1.5 in. or so, and still in March.

Looks like another very highly volatile fire weather setup today (Wednesday) behind this morning's front moving through the state. Del Rio dew point is already coming in at < 0 F at 6 am obs with a sudden rise in post-frontal temp during the past few hours even though it's still night (along with blowing dust). I have seen this kind of post-frontal outflow or cold front warming phenomena written in NWS area forecast discussion before but don't recall the term for the process. - Fredericksburg, 'Crabapple' big wildfire that started on Saturday (15th) and has burned just under 10,000 acres total, is now 90% contained looking at data and reports from Tuesday evening: https://www.kvue.com/article/news/local/fredericksburg-texas-crabapple-fire/269-90fa3522-9149-4b66-8b63-90e2febddc2e Hopefully it's fully contained by early today. As this afternoon's sun and warmth with extremely dry and gusty post-frontal north/west flow air and steadily worsening drought is going to make things no doubt highly conducive for wildfire growth & maintenance (looks pretty similar to March 4th afternoon post-frontal setup).

Lubbock reported peak post-frontal wind gust of 82 mph, with brownout and near 0 visibility in the ongoing Panhandle region dust storm. Good amount of non-convective wind damage reports around there today also. - - - DFW also reporting blowing dust (though winds nowhere as strong as they are out west). I didn't think the high wind warning was warranted for DFW area earlier today. Seeing the position of the deep Low ejecting further north over the C Plains and LL momentum even this afternoon over DFW (despite temps in the 80s) is still pretty weak on radar VWP. Dryline heat spike this afternoon with temps well in the 100s in STX with Cotulla topping 105 F. Though not unheard of this early in the year in March.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/overview.html - Lots of Fire wx potential the next several days across the S Plains. Even a rare, (dry) thunderstorm potential around the KS/MO border region tomorrow (14th). SPC going with another 'Extreme' risk area (like on March 4th). Amid very low sfc dew points to potentially < 0 F on Euro, strong/very strong winds, and warm temps.

https://www.kristv.com/news/local-news/in-your-neighborhood/san-patricio-county/sinton/sinton-fires-investigators-determine-what-started-tuesdays-devastating-fires https://www.kristv.com/news/local-news/in-your-neighborhood/san-patricio-county/sinton/sinton-neighbors-return-to-the-aftermath-of-the-devastating-fires - Recap of Tuesday's wildfire aftermath in Sinton. Multiple wildfires started in San Patricio county Tuesday afternoon. Which is likely why the A&M fire incident data was overestimating the burn acreage of the 'Welder' fire alone. Although another fire (Railway) not far from it on the northeast outskirts of Sinton did burn over 700 acres total. ArcGIS data also shows this. Despite its confirmed small size (<100 acres), all it took for the Welder fire to become disastrous & completely burn down 17 homes in Sinton, was a simple downed power line. Combined with strong post-frontal winds, extremely dry air (DP around 10 F), ongoing drought/cured vegetation fuels, and very warm temps in the 80s/90s last Tuesday afternoon. - - - The fire wx danger over the western half of state does not look to end anytime very soon. SPC is already highlighting Critical fire wx risk areas in the D 4-8 outlook as the fire threat could really escalate again behind another deep Low traversing the Plains at the end of this new week (14th - 15th). And may even need to be expanded further northeast closer to DFW region and into the C Plains. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/ - Also, the ongoing drought in the state is obviously worsening with San Antonio area now in a developing 'Exceptional' (D4; max drought intensity) status. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?South

A large brushfire (Welder Complex) burned just over 1500 acres total in San Patricio county on the northeast side of Sinton where evacuations of several hundred people occurred Tuesday afternoon (biggest town in the county outside of Corpus area). It seems to be fully contained now late tonight looking at local media updates from Tuesday evening. Especially now that winds have died off and DPs have recovered, but did burn structures down (20 houses but damage extent still not clear). This was the largest active fire reported in the state on Tuesday. - - - Mesonet site in Val Verde county (Del Rio area) around noon Tuesday reported 67 mph post-frontal wind gust. Highest non-convective gust recorded in the Austin/SAT NWS region on latest LSR data.

Very impressive dew point drops behind today's system & dryline to < 0 F in the Rio Grande plains and even < 10 F near the coastal bend with very warm & strong post-frontal westerly downslope flow component (Cotulla is sitting at -4 F right now at 3 pm obs). Del Rio had post-frontal wind gusts to 60 mph earlier also. The wind is howling this afternoon in the southern half of state with all the very warm afternoon air transferring more of all this post-frontal momentum aloft down to the surface. DP was at 0 F in El Paso yesterday afternoon with blowing dust in W/NWTX. I can see the dust is around here in STX causing haze this afternoon but that could also be because of an active wildfire ongoing in Duval county blowing the smoke east. No disagreement at all on SPC's decision yesterday to post a rare 'Extreme' fire risk outlook area over the southwestern half of state for today. Considering how dry both the air & ground are in that region (along with the warm, strong west downslope flow). Although no major active wildfires have broken out looking at TX wildfire map data as of typing this.

'Meant to post this last night after looking at latest evening model data, but with the modification process of the (extremely shallow) arctic origin airmass well underway just above it in the LLs around the coast, elevated storms have broken out today around Houston with some already stronger lightning strikes as of typing this. Corpus (CRP) 12z upper air obs this morning already showing effective shear near 60 knots, and steep ML lapse rates above 7 C. Fairly strong LL south warm-air advection flow, and cold H5 temps below -15 C. Even though SPC is thinking the hail threat is lower today & tonight on D1 outlook discussion (probably because of latest mesoscale model data this morning keeping everything offshore), the models are underdoing the deep convective threat today, onshore. Especially the already ongoing Houston area storms. So I don't think the severe hail potential is nonexistent. Especially tonight as Euro has been fairly consistent showing a decent amount of MUCAPE (>500) hanging over the mid-upper coastal region with weakening CIN. Ahead of a stronger, more pronounced H7 shortwave moving into the state from the west (both on Euro & GFS).

Again, taking words right out of my mouth on here for obvious reasons.. Like I already said in my last post, if you had just kept to what you actually wanted to say about the cold (instead of coming back to "correct" me again & again), everything would've literally been fine in here. It's just common sense and etiquette. Nothing complicated about this.

Taking words out of my mouth there when I've never even said Arctic intrusions can't happen this time of year. I do very easily realize and I am well aware it's still wintertime, and February in Texas. The freeze watch in STX is just for 1 morning of temps slightly below 32 F. Even down here, that's not rare in February. Apparently, 'extreme' means when 15 F in NTX is ongoing just for a morning in your case. The 'Extreme Cold Warning' in effect is just for wind chills in NTX. I got to also point out that several of your latest replies in here (since the beginning of the month) have been aimed at me from the start on this. If you had just posted what you actually wanted to say about the cold event without coming back to "correct" me, things would not have come to this point.

The models are only showing 1 or 2 mornings, of "extreme" cold in DFW.. Not all day. It's been projected like that for some days now even on Euro.

'Pretty certain now the next winter episode this coming week is going to be a temperature (only) story. And even then, mostly a glancing arctic blow with mainly the chill values the issue in NTX. Temps in DFW & south could even get above freezing on GFS for highs with sunny skies also (right after frontal passage the night before), Wednesday afternoon, and stay above freezing after Thursday morning with WAA cloud cover returning Thursday night ahead of a late week trough. Which definitely lowers the nocturnal freeze threat. Looking ahead, I would not say winter is necessarily done for after this coming week as the AO may go back into another formidable negative phase around mid March. More of the recent CFS data is also depicting lots of below normal temps across the Plains, and even in our state starting near March 10th - 20th. Which is likely an indicator of that. Also, the already weak LN is starting to fall back toward neutral ENSO territory (as it typically does nearing spring). Not saying it would be as cold as this upcoming week, but I definitely wouldn't expect an all-warm & dry March this time around, the way things have been going lately coming into later February now. As I've seen over the years, we're typically more susceptible to chilly/wet 'spring break' season spells from these weak EN/LN and neutral ENSO winters.

Was not anticipating a major roller coaster temp pattern the next several days especially here in STX, but both Euro & GFS are showing a pretty rapid warmup into the 70s & 80s, Saturday. Even all the way up to DFW before the next frontal intrusion this weekend. 12z NAM this morning is also going just as warm too on highs for much of the Eastern half of state Saturday. Which is certainly plausible given a deep southerly LL flow (up to 50 kt but could be stronger) starting Friday, warming 925Mb & 850Mb temps up to 15 C, or even 20 C with much warmer air being pushed in from northeastern Mex by Saturday morning. Cold & Flu cases in the state are likely going to rise substantially next week with all these cold/warm shifts.

MJO does not guarantee any kind of cold air outbreak over TX. A cooler/wetter pattern, yes, for the most part. But even that is not always a guarantee in the latter phases you wrote. As I've seen over the years. I looked at the February dates you wrote (1989, 1996, 2021), and they all involved warm Januarys overall. This past January (2025), was not. As the majority of last month involved below normal temps, and for extended periods across most of the state. So I'm even less convinced now we're going to see any real cold air intrusion for the rest of this month (February). GEFS is staying consistent on temps the next 2 weeks. Also showing a zonal/southwesterly upper flow pattern over much of the Plains. Which doesn't make it favorable for Arctic intrusions to come this far south. CPC is also noting the zonal flow pattern in their 8 - 14 outlook discussion with only average confidence (3 out of 5) of below normal temps across the Plains. They've also been trending north on the above normal temps here in TX the past few days.

No real complaints about this ongoing warm/ridging pattern (especially how chilly January was overall). Not seeing any strong signal for another Arctic air intrusion or outbreak in the state for the rest of the season. The next few frontal airmass intrusions are mostly just Canadian origin with the real cold air firmly staying north/east. And of course, Canadian model is doing its usual extreme bias junk. Euro & GFS aren't anywhere near as cold in the coming weeks. And their ensembles are starting to trend warmer for later February. Though it'll probably be cooler overall than of late, and going into March. Considering also the AO looks to trend back into a possibly more persistent negative phase for later February. -AO does not always translate to Arctic air intrusion nor outbreak (even during winter).

While the cold spell is finally going away, a potent thunder threat, along with more heavy rainfall (like in December), looks to return at least over the southeastern half of state later this coming week. Along with an established Gulf sector (60s DP) from Del Rio - Houston area, and south. That incoming ML Low also looks to stay deep as it nears the state. Will see how its projected evolution/track trend, but both Euro & GFS are already showing a fairly large H5 circulation literally just west of the panhandle (and over WTX) early Friday. Along with decent swaths of positive vorticity moving across the state starting Wednesday. Shear, MLCAPE, and minimal CIN also there on both globals over the south. Notable ML lapse rates > 7 as well. So definitely wouldn't rule out at least a couple supercells with this multi-round convective event (more interesting to watch), around here. - - -

It's been pretty chilly overall at least here in TX since just after Jan 5 when the first Arctic airmass intrusion came down to the Gulf coast. The only real warm day I've had since then even down here in southern TX was Saturday (18th). It's definitely harder for us to stay warm down here in these states whenever we have these extended cold periods because we're just not use to having to do that for more than a few days at a time most years. I'm personally going to welcome the returning warmth later this week. Even though it doesn't look like anything else like this (even Arctic air intrusions) is going to happen for the rest of the current season in these states, looking at longer range model data in February.

Just read an article about the all-time record February 1895 snowfall. Which had just over 8 in. Today's totals in the vicinity have reached over 9 in. looking at NWS LIX data.