Stx_Thunder

Before winter starts returning to the state going into the new year, McAllen reached & set a new record high of 91 F yesterday. Which even there by December is well above normal (about 20 degrees). Previous record, 89 F in 2016. The potential is definitely there for another record-breaking heat spike into the 90s in deep STX tomorrow ahead of the first in a series of winter-returning cold fronts. NBM output from what I was reading on Brownsville AFD this afternoon going as high as 95 F. Which definitely is not out of the realm of possibility in the McAllen/Rio Grande City area considering GFS showing 850mb temps > 20 C and a typical south-southwesterly pre-frontal LL flow.

That's what happens when you anticipate snow and tornadoes on here way too much lol Still, I just hope this S Plains Arctic airmass outbreak actually verifies to start 2025, and for all of TX especially considering how warm the winter has been so far. Although, hasn't been terribly warm down here since December started. The more sig -AO phase projection makes the potential outbreak and how far south it penetrates 100% worth watching even down here going into the new year.

Looking ahead into 2025 (before new years celebrating comes), just saw the latest 0Z Euro and GFS runs on projected temps after Jan 5th across the state. Ensembles not going as cold at this point, but CFS is also trending colder in the state as well in the last few runs. And, AO is forecast to go back negative (possibly significant phase) in the beginning of January. Am more surprised Euro is going colder than GFS here. Which usually isn't the case this far out.

Saw significant areas of 2 - 3 in. for yesterday's storm totals over ETX. That now brings accumulated rain totals actually up to and even over 10" in a couple spots over far ETX since the last few days of November. Which is well above normal now for this month in December there no matter how you look it at it. I also looked at some average monthly rainfall climatology map data for December to verify. This has basically become a repeat of the late spring ETX waterlogging earlier this year. Also, HGX radar estimated about 5 in. area yesterday with the stronger cells not far east of Houston, near Beaumont. Victoria area also got lambasted with several inches of rainfall in just a few hours from the Christmas Eve night thunder system (flash flood warnings obviously issued there that night going into Christmas morning). This looks to be it for major convective events for the rest of 2024. Winter looks to return to the whole state by the very start of 2025. Which will be nice with all things considered of late.

Still looks more like a heavy rainfall/flash flood threat. Rather than severe threat over E/SETX later today (26th). The globals have also backed off more on the amount of substantial inland CAPE penetration from a few days ago on runs. Except around Houston area (near coast). The Gulf warm sector or old Christmas Eve front that caused all the robust storms last night doesn't look like it'll move back far enough north to really bring back convective instability looking at dew point projections also (like the environment already was Christmas Eve). Precipitable water is projected to get close to 2 in. on both Euro & GFS (near 1.8" now on GFS). Which is actually a good ways above normal for this time of year, being wintertime especially. So I definitely agree with WPC's excessive rainfall outlook slight risk area over a larger area of ETX. Maybe even DFW area. If it's another potent shortwave coming in like the Christmas Eve one, it might border on moderate risk level in some areas over E/SETX. Especially with such above normal PWs being projected and all accumulated rainfall around there since December began. Some areas have seen 5 in. (bit higher in some spots looking at TexMesonet data), just in the past 2 weeks. I'm sure that's fairly high for December standards even for that region.

Robust convective environment around the I-10 corridor region for Christmas tonight, alright. Definitely looks like an early/mid spring convective pattern or MCS. +CGs really went on from around midnight until about an hour ago. - Should also note that the ML temp profile aloft is pretty cold as H7 temps were only 4 C in STX, and closer to -20 C further north @ H5 on yesterday evening's obs sounding data.

Some real (sfc-based) Christmas thunder action going on around the I-10 corridor SC - SETX region this evening. Roughly between San Antonio - Houston now. Radar showed a few convective tops getting close to 50 Kft in the past 2 hours near SAT on the southern most cells. Quite high for this time of year. Decent amount of severe hail reports in the past several hours of > 1 in., and a large hail (2 in.) report near Caldwell.

With all this above normal Gulf warmth next to Christmas, not surprised SPC is possibly under-doing things (again) later today on Christmas Eve with just a marginal risk area on this early morning's D1 outlook. Both Euro & GFS are actually showing a pretty volatile convective environment around the I-10 corridor (SAT - HOU areas) with the next front moving through the state. I also saw an isolated storm not far offshore yesterday afternoon that lasted for a while on its own when I was out and about. DL shear doesn't look to be really strong, but still notable areas of 40 - 50 knots by early evening in San Antonio region. Multi-global model output also showing near 100% thunder risk areas. And this time moreover, ML lapse rates look to be pretty steep (closer to 8 or even possibly above). Potential steep LL lapse rates also as the front will be coming into the region at best time of day (later afternoon). - At this point on model runs, Thursday's (26th) setup isn't looking anywhere as convectively unstable in E/SETX. Despite better projected shear.

Overrunning cold rain & elevated thunder setup this weekend looks good for much of the state. The best statewide rain setup even out west in the more drought-stricken areas of the Western hill country and San Antonio region (since start of Nov). Likely no drought buster around there with this kind of winter setup, but is definitely a step in the right direction. Euro and GFS have been showing up near an inch or so in some areas out there through early next week in the past several runs. Higher totals will obviously be further east per usual closer to the coastal surface Low/warm front moving near the coast in response to the incoming ML Low out west. Seeing that next cutoff incoming ML Low starting to take shape this evening near the AZ/Mex border and appears to be deepening. Which could cause it to dive further south in Mex before it ejects this weekend. Either way, models have been showing plentiful support for lift aloft during the past couple days of runs along with saturated low-mid levels. ML lapse rates are already fairly steep this evening around the state. Already seeing some high-based sporadic lightning activity going on this evening over WTX. - - - Saw there was some fairly frequent lightning discharges and elevated thunder clustering scenario in yesterday's SS shortwave energy over C - ETX. Some powerful CG strikes yesterday around midday (>100 kA) on the map in such overrunning pattern. Wednesday 12Z DFW ua obs only had about 500 MUCAPE (if that) with definitely not the steepest of ML lapse rates (only about 6 but did go above 7 late in the day) either to really support that kind of frequent lightning discharge. Though some of those convective tops yesterday did manage near 40 Kft looking at ET radar data.

'Loving this very comfortable polar airmass intrusion and overrunning pattern ongoing around here (1st real one of the season) that looks to stay in place until the middle of next week. Gotta be thankful for that and came in early yesterday on the holiday also (as it should more often this time of year). Decent, but typical net result coastal troughing looks to deepen next to Deep STX the next few days, so overrunning rainfall and even some thunder potential is there for the entire Coastal region. Euro, has been putting out some decent amounts for the time of year & scenario (and all things considered lately with the basically statewide drought now also). Up to a couple inches total over SETX into next weekend, but may be overdone and because of the time of year. GFS going somewhat drier, but is showing hints of the coldest wx of the season over the state (so far) going into the 1st full week of December. Which wouldn't be surprising now as I'm also seeing a trend in the GEFS painting a more persistent - AO phase going into mid-December. Which could lead to a more prolonged chill period also. That'd be quite a turnaround before the end of the year, from all the warmth of late.

Looks a bit interesting tonight near/just west of DFW area, and possibly Coastal/SETX Monday afternoon with the front from that next incoming deep but compact ML Low out west. Tracking even further south over northern Mex on wv right now. CAPE and ML lapse rates (again) are going to be the negating factors. And Fall, actually coming in this week with a reinforcing polar surge dropping all the way through the state mid-week. 40s F everywhere (including STX) Thursday morning on both GFS & Euro. Euro showing DPs in the 10s over CTX Wednesday afternoon (fairly impressive for the time of year).

No outbreak by any means yesterday, but was not a bust in the state either. - And I have to give GEFS and EPS systems actual credit for the preliminary projection & track of yesterday's deep ML Low into NM and panhandle, from Oct 20th - 25th. They were basically trash for when summer started this year, but this is a pretty good make up. Especially coming out of a unusually quiet October.

Getting more robust and sustained cluster development just northwest of San Antonio with a new severe warning there and new development ongoing now further southwest. All activity in the region is still progressing south fairly slow also since cells initiated about 3 hours ago now.

Clearly seeing the robust ML Low spinning even on radar over NM (south of Albuquerque) and still edging south over the past several hours. Also seeing a few lightning strikes starting to show up now in the light precip shield around the center near Albuquerque. Del Rio 12z UA obs earlier this morning already has around 60 knots effective shear and WBZ height now under 10 kft. Fairly stout and typical, but definitely not un-breakable 850mb inversion. Especially with all the dynamics and front coming in later today or this evening. Definitely going to be interesting tonight even over the southern half and San Antonio area in the more robust thunder initiation zone.

Still looks, and getting even more and more convectively interesting now (severe potential also) with each new Euro and GFS run, tomorrow night - Tuesday morning for pretty much all the eastern half. Even San Antonio area, and into deep STX. 'Not surprised at all SPC hasn't even pushed the marginal risk area on D2 outlook update earlier today over STX (typical of them). Incoming ML trough/H5 Low out west keeps trending further south in the state, speeding up the arrival of 40+ kt DL shear now and better dynamics toward the lower coast also (more in line now with the incoming frontal convective activity Monday night). CIN is already fairly weak on this evening 0Z soundings (noticing that down here today with bigger cumulus formation and storms last Friday morning that I didn't expect), and projected to rapidly erode tomorrow evening (if any by then). Bulk shear already around 50 knots and 40 at H5 on 0Z Del Rio sounding this evening. Moisture will likely be enough. Only thing possibly sig lacking is good enough ML lapse rates that are projected to lower as Monday night progresses.. Later this week into next week could also get interesting with trends.