AstronomyEnjoyer

GEFS, FWIW

Yeah, unless something drastic changes at 12z, UK is firmly in the south camp.

That model just loves to consistently place a weenie jackpot over my little weenie head. Doesn't even matter if it ends up terribly wrong. I need to send the DWD a gift basket or something.

ICON 974 smooching Cape Cod, lol.

Here's a EURO Kuchie closeup for the Connecticut weenie crowd.

Euro is lookin' good.

I do find the NARCAN maps to be pretty damn accurate, but why in God's name did they choose the color scheme they did? It's like they went out of their way to make it as ugly as possible.

Driveway is a mix of solid ice and muck. Hoping tomorrow can finally finish off the ice. Trying to get at it with the tractor just results in a torn up drive. Bonus picture of the river behind the house. Could tell it was running a little stronger from melt, but I'm curious to see how much it'll get going by the end of tomorrow.

00z UKMET is starting to latch on to the idea of a cohesive snowstorm. Still way south.

GEFS trend north, not as drastic as the ICON EPS did.

Caveat, it's the ICON, but looks like a fair number of members clustering NW on the 00z EPS compared to 18z.

Yeah, that's the unfortunate truth of it. I do think somewhere has a real chance at 20" though. Not widespread by any means of course.

How much human input is needed to run these models? Is there a bunch of German dudes sitting around at 430 am getting plastered?

That axis of goodies on the latest ICON Kuchera is making me think dirty thoughts of DEC 2020. Just needs a little more tilt and about 3 times the QPF and bam! Easy-Peasy.

ICON Kuchie.

Really kinda spoke too soon on that one, but not a fan of the low continuing to trend towards the south. I think your prediction of MHT and south for the goodies may come to fruition. Das not good for me.

Haha, here's a pic I took last night as it happens, shit you not.

Not necessarily the trend I want to see on the ICON, but this 00z sure is bringing the juice.

Where I am, at this rate I'd gladly take a 1/7 redux. I've only got the ICON in my corner right now - that's not... ideal. Shit, I'll even give you one of my inches to bump you up to 20" this time around (phrasing).

Gorgeous day today - not sure it made it past 45 but it felt like 50's outside today - full sun as well. First time the snowpack felt vulnerable, had water streaming off the roof at one point from melting, and I finally have one spot where yard is showing - over the septic tank (gross). A real weenie would take the tractor and use the loader to dump spare snow over the bare spot, but this weenie doesn't want to (literally, because I do this figuratively all the time) collapse into a pit of his own shit.

And the 00z ICON is off! I think Sey-Mour Snow makes a great point about model order. It does offer that first hit for us weenies. That being said, it's usually better to be first and wrong than last and still wrong.

Trudged down the backyard this afternoon to take photos of the river. Top photo is a 1/160 second exposure. It captures the turbulent state of the water flow at that instance. Some details on the bottom are completely obscured, while others come through with a decent amount of detail. Bottom photo is a 8 second exposure. The camera sensor was collecting signal for 1,280 times as long. Integrating signal for longer "smooths", that is, averages out the turbulent flow. As a result, the perceived amount of detail in the river bed has gone up, but you might notice some areas of the first photo still offer more detail. The 8 second exposure is still a noisy image, however, the noise is spread around. Now, there are ways to fix that, but ....... Jesus I'm rambling, just enjoy the damn wintry river scene. Edit: added some actual photos too.

Uh, nothing, I mean, uh, the water was cold, the water was cold!

You can blame me! December - admittedly - was a loss, but January was great! 30.6" for the month and I'm still rocking a 12" plus snowpack. 4.3" SWE last I measured. We'll see how she holds up this weekend. I do hope folks further south and or on the coast can cash in soon though, genuinely, and hopefully from this event. It's New England man, it's supposed to snow everywhere.

For fun, take a look at what the Euro spits out for the Cape Breton Highlands. North of a meter.