vortexse93

HRRR decided it will not give me sups to chase this evening. Will make an attempt to gather lightning photos and go from there. Will see how model data changes throughout the day, but if trends in the model data continues then any hopes of chasing will be doubtful.

Model guidance suggest that storm development will be close to sunset. Will stay within the JAN area in hopes of getting some lightning or storm photography. Discrete cells look to remain few and far between out ahead of the line, this cloud be a result of some sort of boundary that the models are indicating for these discrete storms to develop off of. Other than that, majority of the storms will be associated with the cold front. Any discrete storms that do develop, will either merge within or into some sort of linear system as cold front front begins drifting southward during the late evening into the over night hours. Synoptic forcing will be weak, but there will be enough directional shear present from the sfc to the mid-levels to support tornadic cells. Given the weak synoptic forcing, the tornado threat should be low for the most part.

Adding to what @nrgjeff had posted, while it is way to early to determine exact details for Sunday, the 18z GFS and NAM forecast soundings do show some glimmer of hope for a potential chase in the MS Delta into North AL. One concern that stands out to me is the mid-level capping inversion that is very apparent in the NAM sounding, not so much on the GFS sounding. If that cap does not erode, then it could be cause for concern for storm development during the afternoon/evening hours. Outside of that one issue, veering wind profile, with about 700 J/kg to 1,000 J/kg of CAPE, SRH values well into the triple digits, looping hodographs and even steep lapse rates present within the atmosphere is a good sign. All that needs to be watched are boundaries, as mentioned before, and for myself at least storm mode.

Wednesday, had little hope for anyways, if things do get interesting, I have to Res in Jackson, MS that can hopefully be of some use in the attempt to get structure at the bare min if not lightning photos. Sunday might be one of those if you are close take the gamble anyways pending storm mode, which is what I might end up doing. If I do go out, then it will but for the sole purpose of getting structure and landscape photography nothing more across the Delta.

I have done some analysis for AMJ and I think April will continue to be active. As for May and June, it looks bleak will save that discussion for another time.

I have sups

Looking at the model guidance and seeing the 12z HRRR, will stay local and if something comes my way I will attempt to chase it then. I would think about heading east this morning, but will have to fight the QLCS on my way back and not worth the risk, especially on a day like today where storms will spins.

I would not dare chase south of I-20 towards that direction on a slight risk or enhanced risk day. You think I am going to chase on a moderate or high risk day, that is crazy lol

It might be a road of this

00z HRRR is really concerning me. I haven't see the HRRR this consistent. Usually there is some difference or some sort of back and forth. Really concerning and FV3 is not showing much difference.

No chase for me tonight as storm development will after sunset. This will likely be my last full breakdown discussions before tomorrow, any updates from will likely be brief or will be quoting SPC MDs for much of the day. Tomorrow has me very concern for long-track and violent tornadoes across much of Central MS as model guidance has severely backed off on any morning time convection for the region. My second concern is the possible eastward progression of a dryline ahead of the cold front. Dry lines are not common for this region and could be the reason why models have supercell heavy the over the last couple of days. Drylines are excellent lifting sources for storm development and are more common out in Tornado Alley. Timing of these storms can be as early as mid-day tomorrow and will most likely remain discrete and supercell storms. These discrete storms will not have the biggest tornado threat associated with them, but will also have the potential to produce long track and violent tornadoes tomorrow. Since I am new to this forum, I do not use that language very lightly or very often. Tomorrow has the day to be a very eventful day. For chasing, had thoughts to chase, however, having to fight any potential supercells on the way back or QLCS storms in this type of environment is not warrant for me. However, as @jaxjagmanmentioned, if things line up properly, the storms will come to me. For this reason, I will remain local for tomorrow's severe weather threat. I have some local spots that will be great for viewing if the opportunity presents itself. Tomorrow is not a day for inexperience chasers to be chasing in Dixie Alley. The setup were more into the Delta, I would most be considering a chase, but that is not the case. For those that go chasing, be extremely careful and mindful of the weather conditions and the road networks around MS/AL.

18Z HRRR is trying to sign my death certificate

For me personally, will need to see how Friday plays out before making any decision. While I would typically have something a little more concrete, I do not this time around as CAMs are struggling one way or another. Also, Friday night into Saturday morning will dictate what will transpire across MS and AL as whole. As it stands right now, will prep as if I were to chase with the the understanding that it will most likely be a no go for me at this time. The last thing I wan to do is force myself to chase something that the risk is not worth the reward and put myself in unnecessary harm. Will continue to monitor model guidance and trends at this time before making a final decision.

I am currently keeping my eyes out for Friday into Saturday. By glancing at the models over the last few days, I am personally not liking the timing nor the placement of this setup. This round I may end up sitting this one out. For me personally, it will be a stretch to make near Northeast AR/MO on Friday. For Saturday, the threat will be to my east and chasing east of I-55 is nearly impossible. While there are some spots that are decent to chase in, I am not much on fighting trees and hills. Plus, have some concerns in how Saturday morning may play out with the morning storms ahead of the main show. Have seen time after time when morning storms tend to ruin events. Not saying that will happen, it is something to keep in the back of the mind when making these decisions. Will continue to watch and see what the higher res models are showing by this time tomorrow.