vortexse93

Haven’t looked in full detail but the CFS Supercell Composite is signaling something around late February into mid March with the chances being a lot better in the March timeframe which is when the MJO is expected to be in the IO from what I have seen. My patience maybe paying off.

At least 1 confirmed tornado has been confirmed in NW TN and it was EF-2. More info can be found in the graphic.

No tornadoes that I have seen or know of. The tornado warning ended up being dropped no long after I grabbed the screenshot of the image I have posted. I did not chase, I was just waiting for it come to me while at home. Northwest TN got hit hard with damage and from what i understand now a dam failure.

Unfortunately where those discrete cells develop at is in bad chasing terrain (ie hills, trees,and etc) plus near night time spells no go for me.

Nothing like good ole' Dixie being Dixie with a QLCS event occurring near night time. If model data continues to show QLCS, which I suspect it will be, will likely not be chasing tomorrow. While temps and dew points will be more than sufficient, timing and storm mode does not appear to favorable at this time. Will continue to watch and monitor situation for the next several hours.

What makes you think that with the MJO?

Quite possibly, but the AO is expected to be negative as well in this time frame and us being in Feb into early March has me concern that the cold arctic airmass could contaminate some of the other teleconnections and mess up the pattern. I’m not saying it will or will not, I am just saying it is something to watch for going into March. I do like the MJO and ENSO phase we are in or trending towards. Maybe a strong enough MJO in the right phase could off set the AO but time will tell. Also have to see the NAO and PNA as both weren’t in good phases either but it only takes one to make or break a forecast. For now, have my eyes set for Saturday and will get back to the MAM after this week.

Continuing to watch for a potential chase day towards the mid to late Feb. As of right now, the CFS is continuing to show the potential for convective storms towards the middle of the month, potentially towards the end of the month. For temps, long range models are continuing to show above avg temps between Day 8 to Day 14. Anything after Day 15 temps begin to return to normal before another shot of cold arctic airmass returns to the region by the start of March. If this is true, the cold arctic airmass could delay the start to the spring season for portions of the country. While this is not set in stone, it is something to consider going forward and picking out potential chase days and/or weeks going into March (will be another discussion for another day). The real question of the next couple of weeks will the teleconnections be aligned to help better the chances? At this moment, it is hard to say as several of the teleconnections will be out of the phase to help support or even enhance the chances of a favorable storm track. Will have to continue to watch and monitor the models over the next several days and see how things play out. If Feb. decides to be bust this year, I will begin to focus on the MAM to AMJ timeframe. There is nothing guarantee of course, this is me just looking forward to the 2025 Spring Season and hoping to get a little tease before peak season gets here.

It seems like it could be one of those mini supercell days from the wording and the low CAPE environment.

Will keep this short, want to save the good stuff for MAM or try to at least. The CFS is continuing to show potential for a mid to even late Feb severe weather potential. Some of the things I do like is the ridge off of the Appalachian Mountains seems to be weakening, this is based on both the CFS and the recent EURO weeklies (not shown here) However, the NAO does remain positive well into this same time frame. Can the AAM get into a favorable phase as well, it is possible, but will it stay there is another question. At least for now, it is something to watch for still going into the month of Feb. I am liking what I am seeing with above abv temps in the long range along with some troughness out of both the CFS and the EURO weeklies towards the Rockies and Central Plains. Will like the NAO to be negative, as it gives a better opportunity for troughs to dig a little deeper south but one can only hope at this stage. It is a very much see and wait type situation at the moment. But seeing the model guidance trends, mid to late Feb could provide a teaser into what MAM could have in store for us.

Well, if this comes to fruition, my forecast would bust oh well.

To be fair with last year’s ENSO, we were in an El Niño going into a La Niña. Historically, El Niños tend to have less active tornado season across the Southeast as a whole. When we made the switch to La Niña, it was a little late for the Southeast if I do recall correctly. That’s why I am a little excited about this season since we are in a La Niña maybe it will give more opportunities to chase. Now this will be dependent on the other teleconnections including the AO, MJO, PNA and the NAO.

Please reference the figures above for this discussion. While I would typically wait and do this type of sub-seasonal forecast for the months of MAM, some of the data in the CFS and the EURO Weeklies caught my attention and wanted to at least discussed the small window that could make Feb very interesting. Starting off with temp anomalies, both the CFS and EURO weeklies are showing above avg temps for a large portion of the Southeast US by the middle of the month along with above avg precip over the Lower Ohio River Valley into the Upper MS River Valley during this time span. This also evident in the CPC Outlook (not shown) for the month of Feb which speaks volume to what the models are showing at this time. While temp and precip anomalies themselves can not predict or give the proper insight into convective forecasting, the mere fact of them overlapping each other within the same time frame does suggest there is a window of opportunity there. As for sfc features, the CFS is not quite sold on a sfc low being in the right place at the right time, but does in fact show a possibility of one. If timing and placement of the sfc Low is right, then there is a quite possible that we could see convective storms around the middle of month across the Southeast US which would include, TN, AR, MS, and AL. Something to consider in all of this are the teleconnections and their role into making this happen. With the MJO, while it does perform better during the spring time months, there is still good possibility that it will be in favorable phase to amplify the subtropical jet by the time we get into mid-Feb. Timing of this will be extremely important as temps should be well above avg and could give the proper set or at least on the grand scheme of things. As for ENSO (while not shown), it is too in a favorable phase for tornado activity in the month of Feb and should remain in La Nina for quite some time as we head into MAM time frame (another discussion down the line). Despite the recent arctic airmass across the Deep South, the airmass should be able to recover as suggested in the long range and climate models. The AO should be back into a positive phase during this time which should also help the airmass recover. How long will the AO stay in the positive phase is another question in itself. This recovery from the recent arctic blast will need to be watch as we head into the month of Feb. While model guidance is trending towards above avg temps, it would be a matter by how much and when. Any more arctic airmass blast could closed the window on any convective storm potential around mid-Feb, which is why it is so important to keep on this from now on. While we are several weeks out from this, I think personally the window for convective storms around mid-February is possible, especially if the climate and long range model guidance continues show above avg temps and preicp in the region along with the proper synoptic-scale features in place. Main thing to keep in mind will be the MJO phase and the AO phase. I have read and looked into the AAM teleconnection, unfortunately the time scale is way out of reach for this particular teleconnection, but it is something to check on towards the end of Jan into the first week of Feb. Right now, the middle of Feb has my attention and will see how it goes from here. Since I am still new on here, in no way that I am saying that there will be convective storms, I just think that the window is there, especially with the temps, precip and with some of the teleconnections at play and from what I have seen. I am also interested to see feedback and others think about mid-Feb.

This post will likely be the last for this event and will also be on the shorter side of things as well. It appears for much of Central MS will end up on the drier side of this system. This is what I was concern with from the start as some of you may recall from my previous posts. This is now apparent in all the forecast model guidance. For those along I-20 and north (including the Jackson Metro) will likely see very little of snow, if that. There is not enough precip to overcome the dry airmass and so this will result in very minor snowfall accumulations. For those in southern MS to the MS Coast, snowfall accumulations are not only likely but could be significant in some places. Widespread snowfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible, while some areas could be pushing closer to 6 or even 8 inches of snow. The higher snowfall accumulations will be very dependent upon where the heavier snow bands will end up at and their duration of those bands.

Appreciate the links. I did read the AAM one and it was very interesting and makes more sense on the by certain phases favor tornado seasons. Also, if you haven’t checked it out, ENSO looks to stay in a La Niña phase for much of the early part of the spring according to the EURO so something to watch for in combination with the AAM.