TradeWinds
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Everything posted by TradeWinds
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I'll have to do a search and find it. It was in one of these threads. I believe the Laura thread or this one. UKMET was leading if I remember. One reason models might be off this year is due to less input resulting from covid.
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Read an article recently that compared models for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Euro was the worst in all lead time categories even less than 72 hrs. Not saying it will not verify but the track record is off this year so far.
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If that run were to verify, the hypothetical Caribbean/EGOM system would've been Teddy. The GFS does a weird monsoonal split and breaks off the upper axis first that becomes Sally. It then allows the southwestern extension to close off into Teddy and it gets captured by strong ridging / easterly flow. Sally merges with CATL troughing. Teddy drives into the CONUS. Meh...looks gimmicky and likely to not model that way in future op runs with any consistency. A few EPS members have the exact same scenario although it evolves differently up front. I agree though the ops will change a lot.
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Everybody who lives here knows Tampa is Central Florida. Your post is correct.
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It appears a CCKW will pass 3rd week Sep thru early Oct. The Gulf and western Caribbean could spark but no guarantee. Anybody know if those are factored into models?
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Depends. Sometimes models can sniff out general disturbances or lower pressures in a region of the western Caribbean/Gulf. I've also seen invests pop up on the tail of a cold front. I'm not sure if models consider CCKW into their forecasts but I'd be surprised if we do not see an uptick in activity in this area 3rd week of Sept to mid Oct when a CCKW passes.
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WTH is wrong with everyone? I just asked where the Para ensembles is for heaven's sake.
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Where is this on weather models?
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If ever there was a case in point, this is it. 5+ days out you might peek at the operationals for patterns, precip, derived winds, feature locations, and especially entertainment purposes, but for estimates on TCs and their storm relative potential, you go with the different ensemble packages all night and day long. I don't mind beating that dead horse into a smear until frequent posters get it. Agreed. I'm curious of low pressure placement and pressure on ops but I quickly jump to all the potential patterns.
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I was looking at the way it rams into a mega ridge and thought....how? lol. Also do not buy the rapid development. That Atlantic looks dry like it has all summer.
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Those 500mb heights first week of September sure look to signal a potential EC threat if something forms.
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Shear is increasing.
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Marco's intensification is about to come to a grinding halt. High shear awaits.
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Our rainy season is so dependent on the ridge. Last year was very dry in Orlando and all the storms were pinned on the West coast...stronger east wind. The WAR this year brings light winds and is allowing the east and west coast breezes to move well inland. We are very wet this summer.
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Those anomalies off the Florida coastline stick out. I read Biscayne Bay hit 90F this week.
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What is the main cause of dry air in the MDR this season? Just SAL or some other climatologic factor? Or maybe that is just normal this time of year?
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I laugh at West Coasters beating their chests over our quake. This coming from the same people (L.A.) that had a collective panic attack for part of a freeway shutting down over a weekend just a month ago. I also remember being in Seattle one January and it was top news that the low temp was to be 26F!! They gave tips to the public on how to survive and protect your homes.
