TradeWinds
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Everything posted by TradeWinds
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This is why those in the cone should always prepare. It may still go N to the Big Bend. They should be equally prepared.
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I posted earlier about this. Several models were starting to see an escape. Local met even seemed surprised his model went east this evening. Maybe a useless model but more and more concern several are showing this. Also watching trends on radar. Last update shows storm moved almost due N from 5 to 8 update. If it passes just to the left of the island S of Cuba, then Ian is officially riding the right edge of the cone.
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I'm only to hr 57 on weathermodels. Sarasota is about 100-110 kts. Tampa about 70 kts. That's 850.
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GFS takes an odd jump almost NW between hr 30 and 36. Not sure what that's about.
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I'm watching radar and it still looks NNW to me.
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Sounds like NHC projecting landfall about Crystal River/Cedar Key based on 5 PM discussion.
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Crazy https://twitter.com/FranklinJamesL/status/1574404763927515136?t=_lVZIE4UfHbGpFSxaLHs1w&s=19
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18z guidance has more members leaning towards an escape to the Atlantic or at least a path inland. It's all gonna come down to the timing of the trough vs High pressure building in.
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HMON is similar. It caved today after showing panhandle hit after hit. I'm not saying it's correct either but just because they feel the effects of the trough and touch the Atlantic don't make them absurd.
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Looking back on the last 3 NHC wind and position estimate forecasts, track looks decent. A hair to the right of track. But noticeably weaker. 11 PM had the slower development. 5 AM was aggressive with winds ramping up all day and now they scaled back some at 11 AM (but a sharp spike up to 140 briefly). Perhaps the early AM models were a tad too strong with this system early causing the west track. We'll see.
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Probably why the NHC kept track closer to GFS mean than Euro at times.
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HMON looks like it is doing as well as GFS and better at 72 hrs. Interesting that the tracks for several days were consistent with GFS to panhandle/big bend and jumped way south at 6z (TPA to Jax).
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00z Euro looks to head directly for Tampa and then hits a wall miles off shore and then moves N to NNW next frame.
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Anything is possible but the flip flopping is proof this model is lost.
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It does have a lot more members TPA south and reintroduced Ft Myers. But it also added California evidently.
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Maybe. Depends on what was initialized. NHC position went almost NNW from 2 PM to 8 PM. Not sure the big jump N was forecasted. 2 PM: 15.7N, 80.0W 8 PM: 17.0N, 80.8W
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They still plan for the due west jump. 8 PM now says moving NW. That wasn't planned until tonight but it's been all day.
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NHC and some models hint at a west jog sometime overnight. For now, the storm keeps riding the right side of their cone. Will be curious to see if it wobbles west at some point.
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The current location is exactly where the Euro had it dropping below 1000 mb for the first time across several ensemble members. Not sure why that would deviate current forecasts.
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I'd call this a significant change in 24 hrs.
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GFS crosses Cuba on 18z where Euro has been for the last 2 days. Maybe even more east over Cuba.
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Density ensembles show more error east possible than west. Appears current position riding right side of cone. Would think NHC may tweak right a hair if any changes at all.
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yes. At landfall, 700 hPa layers has 50-60% relative humidity wrapping well into Central FL.
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Those dewpoints are unseasonably cold this week in Northern FL. As storm passes Tampa on GFS, Tallahassee dewpoint is 40F. Euro in the 30s. Wow.
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It's always deceiving. GFS yesterday had it crossing 15N and 80W. So GFS was definitely too far south.
