nvck

cvg record high for jun 23/24 is 94, which i'm fairly certain will get broken, probably for both days.

Check out this view (from the miniCOW) of the tornadic supercell near Higgins, tx yesterday that I was operating on w/ icechip - we got 15 hailpads out in front of it before it surged south cutting off the planned escape, forcing us to bail east and then south, where we watched as it shelfed out and got a great view. Interestingly not a ton of hail associated with this storm, and our pads that went directly under the precip core got a couple sparse hits, but far fewer than expected.

saw my 1st and 2nd tornadoes yesterday while operating on a storm west of lubbock! first wasn't fully condensed, but a vigorous/persistent dust circulation on the ground underneath the meso. second, we saw as it roped out to our east, and there was a circulation obviously still on the ground as evidenced by the dust being kicked up. this somewhat (not really) makes up for missing the massive dusty wedge in morton on thursday

18/9/4

Yeah I've seen that on a couple streams, fwiw I've seen less lightning the past hour or so than earlier when the cell was nearer greensburg

Was in Greensburg earlier staging. Ended up dropping farther south for the daytime stuff, but headed to Wichita for the night and the cloud to cloud lightning that cell is throwing off is insane. Just constant bolts, wish I could get a good video

Fairly aggressive mcd from earlier, with an almost maxed out watch now issued

been learning metpy, and made this plot layering hrrr fh0 data for surface temps, pressure, and composite reflectivity. interesting how warm it is in minnesota especially, compared to literally anywhere farther south

This is looking good for chasing in the plains these weeks

Cincinnati area could see a second round of storms later this afternoon. good clearing in S indiana

36mph max gust so far at the campus weather station, which is pretty impressive as the anemometer is only 10ft off the ground

75/63 right now, only cooled off to 69 overnight, strong south winds all morning

Watch issued: SEL0 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 180 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southwest Minnesota Extreme Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along a surface front will develop east/northeast through the afternoon. These storms will have the potential to produce large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 85 miles north of Redwood Falls MN to 30 miles west of Storm Lake IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Leitman

WOFS should be running this afternoon: looks like the first run will come out around 1700z: https://cbwofs.nssl.noaa.gov/Forecast?model=WOFSRun20250428-132559d1&rd=20250428&rt=202504281700&product=comp_dz__paintballs_thresh_40&sector=wofs

I think the decision to pull the trigger on a day3 MDT was at least partially supported by Broyles et al. findings in the OMEGA project, which found that jet streak translation speeds >40kt are associated with higher-end tornado events. Doing some rough math, from the 6z NAM, it looks like at 6z monday the core of the 500mb jet is over eastern NM, and by 6z Tuesday it's not as obvious where the core of the jet is, but it appears to be somewhere around the northern shore of Lake Superior. This would suggest a translation speed of around 49kts, well above the threshold mentioned in the paper. The SPC also mentions the jet translation speed in the outlook: A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. I could be wrong, but this is my best guess as to why they went moderate today instead of pulling the trigger tomorrow Here's the paper if you're interested: https://prod-west-spc.woc.noaa.gov/publications/broyles/omega.pdf