nvck

81/78/89 at 8:30am... No thanks

90/80 imby is tough, air is just so thick. station might be running a bit warm/moist, but another PWS a couple blocks away is showing 93/81.

don't really buy the slight risk being pushed into Ohio tomorrow, ample shear but MLCAPE will likely be below 300j/kg. like wednesday's event on a budget.

just had the wettest 2-day stretch on record at the municipal airport here, and those 5.51" came in a ~18 hour span.

oh for sure, the imagery from TCVG was insane nonetheless with that storm that went through florence

risk definitely verified around here

i think that southern one will stay south of 275, but the northern one could potentially impact the metro

even with the consistent stratiform stuff here, thinking it could be a busy next few hours, given whats unfolded to my west

80/70 probs on the new watch

HRRR over-mixing bias on display once again, latest run undershoots dew points by several degrees across my area, with obs in the colored labels. 13z RRFS seems to have a much better handle on moisture, although it's under-doing SBCAPE by 750-1000J/kg, per mesoanalysis

he's had some wins in the past, but this is definitely not one of them

don't disagree w/ the spc often, but not a single tor warning, let alone report, out of that line

Both HRRR & RRFS are too slow, and not far enough SW with the ongoing convection

Not sure if i get the EF4 tor threat mentioned on this MD for the morning convection

looks like a good hail core on that cell NE of grand rapids