nvck

just had the wettest 2-day stretch on record at the municipal airport here, and those 5.51" came in a ~18 hour span.

oh for sure, the imagery from TCVG was insane nonetheless with that storm that went through florence

risk definitely verified around here

i think that southern one will stay south of 275, but the northern one could potentially impact the metro

even with the consistent stratiform stuff here, thinking it could be a busy next few hours, given whats unfolded to my west

80/70 probs on the new watch

HRRR over-mixing bias on display once again, latest run undershoots dew points by several degrees across my area, with obs in the colored labels. 13z RRFS seems to have a much better handle on moisture, although it's under-doing SBCAPE by 750-1000J/kg, per mesoanalysis

he's had some wins in the past, but this is definitely not one of them

don't disagree w/ the spc often, but not a single tor warning, let alone report, out of that line

Both HRRR & RRFS are too slow, and not far enough SW with the ongoing convection

Not sure if i get the EF4 tor threat mentioned on this MD for the morning convection

looks like a good hail core on that cell NE of grand rapids

Dayton/ points west in the afternoon look interesting for something semi-discrete in the daytime around here.

Record low slp

06z RRFS suggests that this may be more of a Thursday event for us, blowing up a cell right over the metro by midday. will be interesting to see what the 12z suite thinks, but I could see the d4 risk being shifted back west some