nvck

Saturday looking bigger than Friday for both the northern and southern modes

Is it worth starting another thread for what looks to be a 2day severe weather event? Expecting that both of these risks will be expanded northwards

Lock it in! I'm expecting 0.5" of rain on Saturday, with a few rumbles of thunder

Looks as though the first trough next week isn't going to be as strong as was thought earlier, and therefore the next (much more potent system) has more moisture to work with farther north. Also, depending on the timing the trough progression, I could see Saturday also being a decent severe wx day in the eastern bit of the sub, and into the midatlantic

https://x.com/ItzRoch11/status/1898430186380484745?t=k9tcfmbrBPZkv892UlEblg&s=19 Someone ran a WRF model on GFS initial conditions for Friday. Take with (many) grains of salt, but still interesting

Driving back home from MI, ground was basically completely bare the whole way, though there was a dusting just N of Ft Wayne, where a pretty strong band had been sitting for a little bit. Flurries from Lansing to there basically, but nothing was sticking really. Hoping to bag some 70s this week before a return to the frozen north.

In the CSU d8 ML forecast we trust

Ensemble support as well for a *potential* severe outbreak in the SE and S Ohio River Valley. Will obviously have to watch how this evolves, but seeing SCP values this high 200+ hours out on the gefs is surprising

Pressure bottomed out in the low 980s, after a pretty steep plunge this am. precip on the day around 3/4", and upper 40s feel incredible

6z gfs (and 00z euro) both want to run back another sub-980 low late next week, with more svr possible in the south

But I didn't think the leapords would eat *my* face!

not in our bit of the country, but it's pretty wild that we can issue outlooks 7 days out, that have a decent chance of verifying.

Absolutely incredible day in store here, 10am and it's already up to 42 which feels like the 50s after the past few weeks. W/ the sunny skies and a nice SW breeze I'm thinking we top 50. Could not be more excited

I definitely haven't, only been to Lake Huron and mostly central/southern Lower. Yeah, lots of math w/ the MET major, after calc 2 comes diff eq/linear algebra, and then calc 3 after that. supposedly calc 2 is the hardest, which I'm really hoping is true.

No, the farthest north I've been in MI is Tawas City last March (which didn't have any snow at the time), but I'd like to go up to that area at some point if I can ever get some free time. met major classes are no joke, especially calc 2